Global Warming Thread XI

[David Flick]

[KeithE]

[David Flick]

[KeithE]

[Ed Edwards]

Tee Hee, the language & science might be to much for some.

There is lots of difference between:

the Earth's temperature is going down
and
the Earth's temperature is going up more slowly.

And the classic 1976 statement "leading scientists predict a new (hopefully short) ICE AGE"
cannot be used for much of an "anti-Global Warming" argument. If the the temperature is
supposed to "go down" but is going up slowly -- that is a proof for GLOBAL WARMING.

[Ed Edwards]

THE NEXT 200 YEARS
A Scenario for America and the World
by Herman Kahn, et. all
(William Morrow and Company, Inc; 1976)
ISBN 0-688-08029-4 - paperback edition

The Difficult Long Term Environment chapter:

p175 // ... it is necessazry to improve substantially the simulations and calculations of natural heat-balance changes as well as the effects from man's activities in order to achieve sufficient understanding of these phenomena. And there would seem to be plenty of time to do this -- and even to take corrective action if necessary. \\

Yes, the future is just not what it used to be
Now in 2010 there is not enough time to continue to study; time has come to do something. And the One World Economy (there is just one, you know -- I know i get personally pinched when Greece has an enocomic crises -- but it isn't through the 20 Denarius coin I hold

p 176 // This increase in CO2, concievably has one main effect -- the trapping of long-wave infrared radiation from the surface of the earth ... The observed increase in average global temperature of about 2 degrees Fahrenheit btaween 1850 and 1940 was attributed to this cause (fossil fuel). ... It has been calculated that a doubling of the CO2 content would lead to an increase in average temperature of 4 to 6 degrees Fahrenheit, but it seems unlikely now that the carbon dioxide content will ever double unless mankind wants it to happen ... a carbon dioxide catastrophe does not appear to be imminent. \\

In 2010 the catastrophe is upon us.

p 174 // ... a 3 percent annual growth in energy consumption could liberate enough heat to cause the oceans to boil after about 350 years. \\

Please note that 350 is several election cycles down the road, even today.

[KeithE]

[KeithE]

[David Flick]

[David Flick]

[Jim]

[KeithE]

[David Flick]

[David Flick]

[David Flick]

[KeithE]

[KeithE]

[KeithE]

. This turn of events is not expected to continue however. And the CO2 concentrations in the air continued it's upward rise at about 2-3ppm/year (from 385ppm at end of 2008 to 387 ppm at end of 2009 and homing in on at 390 ppm by end of 2010).


The red line is a monthy average of all global measurement sites of CO2. The black line is a 12 month average effectively taking out the seasonal trend.

Most sane (i.e. non-denialist) scientists say we must decrease the CO2 concentration (along with deforestation efforts) to 350ppm to keep the earth's global air temperature to a 2C rise which will still have some ill-effects. Remember the natural variability in CO2 concentration cycled from 180 to 280 ppm (~125,000 year cycle) prior to the industrial revolution and great increase in CO2 emissions since that time.

But at least we are heading in the right direction due to the economy tanking. What we need is alternative energy to both grow jobs/economy and decrease fossil fuel emissions. It can be done but it will take persistence and controls. The ozone hole was closed through the banning of CFCs with the Montreal Protocol in a matter of 20 years; this will be more difficult.

[David Flick]

[Ed Edwards]

// Bottom line is that the alarmists will do just about anything they can to discredit those who are telling the truth. They will spin any story to safe face. The link you posted is mere propaganda... \\

Strangely, the 'alarmists' remind me of this:

Brother Elder David will be judged by the lost as though he is of the same mind as Phelps'es family: hopless bigots.
I know Brother Elder David is a good Baptist (and other several nice things that is public knowledge) and works hard for the Lord.

Likewise, the best alarmist will be judged as if they are the worse alarmist.
Strangely, we probably aught to dis the average alarmist for UNDERSTATING THEIR CASE. It might already be to late to avoid the +2°C crises (2011-2014) the +4°C crises (2016-2020). But we might miss the 2050 death of 1/3 of the word population - if anybody cares a tad.

Strange, that the 0.24% (24 out of 1,000) data in error rate invalidates the conclusion of the other 100% (to two decimal places) of the data.

But we have made our bed and must lie in it. BTW, did anybody notice that the 1/6 of the world that is Muslim, armed, and (some) angry will suffer the most from Climate Change when their water is gone. Did anybody knotice that the Fundamentalist Athiests (China, the one with nuclear arms) also know that nuclear war can mitigate the ill effects of thier smoking smokestacks?

[KeithE]

[David Flick]

[David Flick]

[David Flick]

[Ed Edwards]

So you agree: Global Warming is warming up BL