Exciting Democratic debate...

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Exciting Democratic debate...

Postby William Thornton » Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:40 am

...and I watched the first half, sort of like I do a night game during football season.

Bloomberg: Missed his train wreck last debate. Thought he was stiff but did well. The guy is left handed, so he's got that going for him. Obviously, Warren is worried about him, since she prattled on about him relentlessly...

Warren: Let's see. She says he's lying about women in his company. She lies about her native American past and the Medicare for All proposal. Bit of hypocrisy here. It is odd that NDAs are an issue on many fronts in our time. I've never liked them when they have been employed in SBC life.

Buttegieg: Guy is sharp. Will be around on the national scene for a while, I suppose.

Klobuchar: Always have liked her and she's the only dem I'd event think about voting for. She had a couple of good lines. Looks far too sensible to make it as either the Prez or VP nominee. I mean, she welcomed pro-life Dems to her campaign. Anathema to the left winger Dems who control the party these days.

Biden: Needs a new act. Shameless pandering to SC African-American voting block. The guy just wears thin on me.

Steyer: Owned some jails did he? Has quit that after being rehabilitated? No chance. Why is he spending all this money?

Sanders: Poor Bernie. Finally captured by his record of incessant verbal hemorrhaging. Fidel is dead yet speaketh through Bernie. That's not a winner in Florida I don't think. Bern and his fantasy rape stuff? Why? Finally got figgurs for MFA and uses the Lancet wild conjectures of savings to pay. No word on making private insurance illegal? Rationing of services?

But...the pundits say it's Bern's to lose. If he fails in losing it, only a disastrous 250 days leading up to the election in November can put him in. Trump is capable of disasters but, not looking good for Dems if Bern is the guy.

We get to vote in 250 days. I'm steeled (Stalinized?) for the outcome if Bernie wins. Just hope he doesn't copy the Generalissimo and his several hour long rants as Cuba's dictator. Imagine Bern's State of the Union Speech...nah, I'd rather not.

Gonna be an interesting year.
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Re: Exciting Democratic debate...

Postby Haruo » Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:55 am

Doesn't look like you're planning on answering my MFA questions anytime soon. And you'd rather have health care unavailable for the poor and bankrupting to the non-elderly working people than rationally (note the etymon "ration-) managed? Sorry, I know that's off-topic.
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Re: Exciting Democratic debate...

Postby Sandy » Wed Feb 26, 2020 11:02 am

William Thornton wrote: But...the pundits say it's Bern's to lose. If he fails in losing it, only a disastrous 250 days leading up to the election in November can put him in. Trump is capable of disasters but, not looking good for Dems if Bern is the guy.


Bernie leads Trump in virtually every national head to head poll and in most of the "battlegrounds". Bottom line is that Trump is going to lose because a majority of Americans are disgusted with him and all he does is pander to his base. He'll get most of the white evangelicals, but not as many as he did in 2016, and most of the rest of his white supremacist base, totalling maybe 35% of the vote and picking up the southern and midwestern states where nobody lives. The Cubans hate Trump, they're not going to turn to him over a couple of sentences about Castro's literacy program by Bernie Sanders. Castro is dead, but while the Democrats were debating, Trump was heaping compliments and hobnobing with Narenda Modi while his Hundu nationalists were out persecuting people by the hundreds just down the road.

We have 250 days for Trump to keep hanging out with dictators and pardoning criminals.

"Whoever the Democrats Nominate" is an easy winner in November.
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Re: Exciting Democratic debate...

Postby William Thornton » Wed Feb 26, 2020 11:17 am

Haruo wrote:Doesn't look like you're planning on answering my MFA questions anytime soon. And you'd rather have health care unavailable for the poor and bankrupting to the non-elderly working people than rationally (note the etymon "ration-) managed? Sorry, I know that's off-topic.


I thought Obamacare took care of all that. But what were your questions again?
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Re: Exciting Democratic debate...

Postby Haruo » Wed Feb 26, 2020 2:08 pm

William Thornton wrote:
Haruo wrote:Doesn't look like you're planning on answering my MFA questions anytime soon. And you'd rather have health care unavailable for the poor and bankrupting to the non-elderly working people than rationally (note the etymon "ration-) managed? Sorry, I know that's off-topic.


I thought Obamacare took care of all that. But what were your questions again?

Obamacare was not MFA, not single payer, not designed with all Americans' well-being as the primary target. It's a hodge-podge, designed with the profitability of the insurance companies at least as high in the priorities as health care for all Americans. It might be a bit better than what Hillary would have preferred, but that's not saying much. Here are my questions again.
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Re: Exciting Democratic debate...

Postby Sandy » Wed Feb 26, 2020 2:49 pm

Given that Trump is besties with the likes of Vladimir Putin, Kim Jong Un and now Narenda Modi, who has moved India from 24th to 10th on the list of most dangerous countries for Christian persecution, between Syria and Iran (Open Doors Watch List) a Republican making a comment about a couple of sentences by Bernie Sanders, out of a whole paragraph of condemnation for authoritarian regimes, is laughable. If Castro were still around, Trump would have been asking him for help to win the election. It's a pattern.
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Re: Exciting Democratic debate...

Postby Tim Bonney » Wed Feb 26, 2020 2:55 pm

I'll vote for whomever the Dems put up this time because what is the alternative? I've not been a huge fan of Bernie. I like Warren and Mayor Pete better. But if the Democratic convention were to choose Bernie as their candidate I'll, as one of my favorite cousins put it, "crawl across a football field of broken glass if necessary" to vote for Bernie over Trump.
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Re: Exciting Democratic debate...

Postby Sandy » Wed Feb 26, 2020 4:11 pm

Tim Bonney wrote:I'll vote for whomever the Dems put up this time because what is the alternative? I've not been a huge fan of Bernie. I like Warren and Mayor Pete better. But if the Democratic convention were to choose Bernie as their candidate I'll, as one of my favorite cousins put it, "crawl across a football field of broken glass if necessary" to vote for Bernie over Trump.


I'd vote for Tulsi Gabbard if she were the nominee, though that's not going to happen.

I watched Bernie at a town hall meeting in Welch, West Virginia a couple of years back, regarding health care. This was in a small county seat town in the heart of West Virginia coal country in a state where Trump got 69% of the vote. He packed the house. Within a twenty minute period, he was able to identify with the problems experienced by every person in the room and laid out his list of practical solutions, which is basically what he is offering now, and had that audience eating out of his hand. His health care proposal will resonate. When he starts talking about these things on their level, people listen.

"Whomever the Democrats nominate" already has a head start in the polling data and we've not even picked whoever it is. "Anti-Trump" is going to turn out enough voters to give the Presidency to the Democrats. People are tired of all the bull. The polling data paints an optimistic picture but the signs can be seen elsewhere.
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Re: Exciting Democratic debate...

Postby Tim Bonney » Wed Feb 26, 2020 4:18 pm

I hope you are right Sandy. Otherwise I fear a slide into authoritarianism and worse if we get 4 more years of the same.
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Re: Exciting Democratic debate...

Postby William Thornton » Thu Feb 27, 2020 8:25 am

Haruo asked earlier: "William, William, what is it that you see as a reason to believe that Medicare for All (I don't care if you use the Bernie version or Warren's as a benchmark) will bankrupt the nation and/or cost the average taxpayer more than the current system's hodgepodge of payment schemes? Assume that you are addressing real live Christian brethren, human beings, literate and capable of basic arithmetic. I for one will look seriously at whatever arguments you adduce, and while I don't promise to agree with your reasoning, I will assume that you too are a real live Christian brother, human, literate, and numerate, and that the arguments you put forth are ones that you, at least, find compelling."

And said above in this thread: "Obamacare was not MFA, not single payer, not designed with all Americans' well-being as the primary target. It's a hodge-podge, designed with the profitability of the insurance companies at least as high in the priorities as health care for all Americans. It might be a bit better than what Hillary would have preferred, but that's not saying much. Here are my questions again."

The presumption is that gummit should pay for all health care. I reject that. Maybe gummit should pay for all housing costs, or food costs, or clothing costs, since those are necessities. The republic and its citizenry (and some illegals) manage to get health care without gummit paying all the bills and have done so for over two centuries. If gummit pays all the bills, they own the system and employ all who work in it. Obamacare is available to all, right? What's the problem there? The reflexive slaps at huge insurance profits are just demagoguery.

I think the burden is on you and others to convince me that the system we have is not adequate, if imperfect. Maybe the issue of the insurance industry could be addressed. Are insurers to be eliminated? Will providers be require to accept MFA patients? Will there be any private health care allowed? My physician now works for a huge hospital group. Is it a small jump from that to working for CMS?

We could go full socialist in medicine. Don't know that would improve anything.
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Re: Exciting Democratic debate...

Postby Rvaughn » Thu Feb 27, 2020 9:23 am

Watched a Democratic debate for the first time this year. Slow night; looking for entertainment. :-)

I did not like the format. Made the candidates look like a bunch of overzealous high schoolers waving their hands to be the first to answer. I often did not hear from one I would have liked to. Seems like giving each time to respond would be better, even if less entertaining. Needed better time management as well.

To me, Pete Buttigieg has the best on camera presence. Maybe Klobuchar next. Or Bernie. He is old and energetic. Biden looked old and tired. Bloomberg seemed old and blah.

I am tickled at all y'all ready to vote for the Democratic candidate regardless. Isn't this the same mentality that you condemn in Republicans voting for Trump regardless? Isn't this the mentality that gave us Trump? Why don't we require better? I don't see we will ever get better as long as we play along with our broken two-part system.
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Re: Exciting Democratic debate...

Postby Haruo » Thu Feb 27, 2020 11:14 am

Many aspects of our lives might benefit from more information and less entertainment. But this is capitalism: sales-driven, and run by news media looking for profit in the risky terrain of preempting regular programming.
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Re: Exciting Democratic debate...

Postby Sandy » Thu Feb 27, 2020 11:35 am

RVaughn wrote:I am tickled at all y'all ready to vote for the Democratic candidate regardless. Isn't this the same mentality that you condemn in Republicans voting for Trump regardless?


Not really. What I have become convinced of is that Trump is incompetent, incapable of administering the office, and has disqualified himself by committing impeachable offenses supported by mountains of evidence. The only recourse is for the voters to dump him in November. The Democratic nominee will more than likely be the only viable candidate who can get the votes to do that. So I will support that candidate.

No sweat, really. There isn't anyone still left in the race that I wouldn't consider a better candidate than Trump anyway. Even when there were more candidates on the stage, I thought the same thing.

Hardline partisanship was introduced by Rush Limbaugh, along with the subtle white supremacy and the "winner take all" attitude. Limbaugh targeted Republicans who still wanted to work across the aisle and pushed for opponents to run against them in the primaries. I don't think it has taken long for voters to get tired of it and want to see some change and not just in the White House.

This might actually be an ideal time for a third party candidacy. I keep seeing little hints and glints in various places that Romney might decide God is telling him this is his time and grab fellow LDS member Evan McMillan or Senator Tom Udall and make a run. Whether that's Romney floating the idea to see where it goes or someone else trying to get him to think of it, it's an interesting possibility, especially since Udall is a Democrat.
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Re: Exciting Democratic debate...

Postby Rvaughn » Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:58 am

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Re: Exciting Democratic debate...

Postby Rvaughn » Fri Feb 28, 2020 10:11 am

Sandy wrote:Hardline partisanship was introduced by Rush Limbaugh...
Surely not. I grew up in an area where almost everyone was once a Yellow Dog Democrat -- long before anyone had ever heard of Rush Limbaugh.
Sandy wrote:This might actually be an ideal time for a third party candidacy. I keep seeing little hints and glints in various places that Romney might decide God is telling him this is his time and grab fellow LDS member Evan McMillan or Senator Tom Udall and make a run. Whether that's Romney floating the idea to see where it goes or someone else trying to get him to think of it, it's an interesting possibility, especially since Udall is a Democrat.
That could be interesting. Mitt would certainly draw some Republican votes of those who don't want to vote for Trump. I've also wondered if the DNC figures out some way to give Bernie the boot again, whether he would consider a 3rd-party candidacy.
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Re: Exciting Democratic debate...

Postby Tim Bonney » Fri Feb 28, 2020 10:39 am

Rvaughn wrote:I've also wondered if the DNC figures out some way to give Bernie the boot again, whether he would consider a 3rd-party candidacy.


It would be a mistake. If Bernie, in the end of the process, is the favored candidate among Dems then those of us who dont prefer him just need to suck it up and support him. Otherwise we will lose the Bernie Bros and Trump is a shoe in.
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Re: Exciting Democratic debate...

Postby Sandy » Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:16 pm

Timothy Bonney wrote:Otherwise we will lose the Bernie Bros and Trump is a shoe in.


I don't see that happening. The big momentum builder for Democrats across the board is "anybody but Trump." Since the off year elections in 2017, the Democrats have put together wins that have overwhelmed Republican gerrymandering and the vote totals each succeeding year and election have become larger, and they've spilled over into deep red states. "Any Democrat running" beats Trump now, and Bernie, along with Biden, is one of the two names that has a larger head to head lead. Even Reagan didn't have a lead over Carter before he was nominated.

Trump, in his unrestrained, vengeful dictator mode, still has over 200 days to commit stupid acts like cozying up to Modi, or pardoning more high profile criminals like Rod Blagogevich. It all adds up. A majority of voters, regardless of party affiliation, want the buffoon out. There will be plenty of votes to get that done in the Electoral College.

The Republicans had a far more laughable and unrestrained circus in 2016 leading up to Trump's eventual nomination. Gee, before they got to the convention, with all the rhetoric floating around, I would have been worried if the Republicans had held a debate in a concealed carry state. There were moments when, if Ted Cruz or Jeb Bush had been in possession of a pistol, they'd have shot Trump, and he would have shot one of them. The support system is in place, Bernie already has an "on the ground" campaign structure from last time around, he has the money, more than Trump, and if he's the nominee, he'll campaign on the things he's for, all of which resonate with far more voters than Trump's "rich get richer" campaign strategy. If it's Bernie he wins, easily. So does Biden or Buttigieg, Klobuchar or Bloomberg or Warren. Heck, Tulsi Gabbard would beat Trump.
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Re: Exciting Democratic debate...

Postby Tim Bonney » Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:54 pm

I think it all depends on how the convetion plays out. I know some Bernie supporters who will not vote for anyone else. They will stay home if it is not Bernie. I think that is a huge msitake. But those folks exist. And I think that is particularly true if they feel the party manuvered Bernie in such a way that the nomination looks like it is stolen from him.
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Re: Exciting Democratic debate...

Postby Haruo » Fri Feb 28, 2020 4:32 pm

Tim Bonney wrote:I think it all depends on how the convetion plays out. I know some Bernie supporters who will not vote for anyone else. They will stay home if it is not Bernie. I think that is a huge msitake. But those folks exist. And I think that is particularly true if they feel the party manuvered Bernie in such a way that the nomination looks like it is stolen from him.

And there are Biden or Bloomberg supporters who will not vote for Bernie. Some (but not all of them) are sufficiently anti-Bernie (or anti-"Socialism") that they will vote for Trump to stop him, others will stay home if it is Bernie. There are also Republicans and Independents who will vote for Trump to stop Bernie, and some (probably not as many) who will vote for Bernie to stop Trump (including one prominent former Tea Party leader). Diversity is the new reality. And I can imagine ways of viewing the field that might lead some to vote for Trump to stop Biden but for Bernie to stop Trump, depending on who's on the ballot.

Here's an interesting CNN map I just saw. Not sure how reliable the basis is, but if it's reliable stuff, then clearly swinging the swing states to the blue side would clinch the thing, but failing to do so would make Sandy an excessive optimist two cycles in a row.

Image
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Re: Exciting Democratic debate...

Postby Sandy » Fri Feb 28, 2020 5:17 pm

Depends on whose drawing the map and what data they are using. This map has Florida fairly deep in the Trump column, but I haven't actually seen a poll that has it anywhere but within tossup range. The only other polling data I've seen, Morning Consult and 538, don't have the head to head matchups by state. Morning Consult, which is raw data without the "adjusted" factors, shows Bernie with the best numbers against Trump.
https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/

I tend to be optimistic here. But it's a shared optimism.

https://nuntiatum.home.blog/2020/02/28/ ... -just-yet/
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Re: Exciting Democratic debate...

Postby Haruo » Fri Feb 28, 2020 5:24 pm

As I said, I have no idea how reliable their data base is, but the notion that you need to look at the states (and in two cases, the congressional districts) is critical. You could win the blue states 80-20, split the yellow states, give Wisconsin to Bernie (or any other Democrat) and Pennsylvania to Trump, and have Trump take the red states by ten lonely voters per state, and the election would go to Trump.
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