How about the Newt seat, 6th district in GA?

[William Thornton]

Very interesting. There were 18 candidates in this jungle primary. Ossoff had $8.3m almost all outside money. The four top GOP candidates split votes the top republican getting about 20%. It's Newt's old suburban seat, vacated by HHS secretary Tom Price.

Ossoff doesn't even live in the district, a factoid that probably cost him the outright win yesterday. Even CNN said . Ya think.

[Sandy]

The expectations, including his own, and the polls, all said he'd get 42-45%. He wound up with 49% in Newt Gingrich's old district in a deep red Southern state. I don't think his having grown up in the district, owning property in it, and living less than two miles in any direction from it, is an issue. The "Trump guy" wound up with 8%, so maybe Trump's tweets helped him pick up that extra 4 or 5 %. If this was a referendum on Trump, as both the real news and the right wing media billed it, then Trump lost, big.

Yeah, Ossoff raised $8 million, though the definition of "outside money" is kind of vague. According to Act Blue, $4 million came from Georgia Democrats. NPR says that 80% of the money raised and spent by the GOP candidates came from "outside" too, on appeals to Republicans across the country. They're not doing as well, in total dollars, though.

I understand that Ossoff is Jewish. I heard an interesting comment today on NPR that the Jewish vote may be a factor in his support. I wasn't aware that there was a large Jewish community in the Atlanta area, enough to have that kind of affect on an election.

[William Thornton]

I don't know about the Jewish vote. Not living in the district is a problem. He knows that. His opponent knows that. Everyone around recognizes that.

Trump barely won the district last year, skin of his teeth. Maybe dems will pour another $8m in. Ossoff had it and it was snatched away. It's interesting. Dems need a win. We will see what happens in two months.

[Sandy]

Well, the Dems got a win in Kansas a week or so ago, when a Democrat who had no money, no political experience, and no name recognition, came within 6 points of a Republican who spent a good chunk of the scarce congressional campaign money that the GOP has scraped up. That was in one of the districts identified as one of the most "red" in the country, won two years ago by a Republican in a 60-30 margin. Ossoff's showing and the Kansas race, combined with the 10 or so state legislative seats across the country that the Dems have flipped since the inauguration in special elections bodes well for Democrats in 2018. So does the 10 to 1 margin they've raised in congressional campaign funds. I'm guessing they'll be quite generous with Ossoff, and it will make a difference. They use it for their ground game, putting people and vehicles out in neighborhoods to ensure a large turnout.

If these districts are that close, then they'll get a lot of wins in 2018. Most of the districts they hold that protect their margin in the house are a lot closer than these are.

[William Thornton]

Actually and literally, Dems got a loss in the Kansas special election.

My donkey friends are clearly hoping for a midterm like the shellackings Obama took. GOP ought to get a few things done this year but it is unclear if they will.

[Sandy]

I guarantee you, if a Republican with no prior experience, no name, and no money had come within 6 percentage points of winning Nancy Pelosi's house seat, and had caused the Democrats to scramble to pour in millions of dollars in "outside money" and change the VP's schedule to make a campaign appearance, the right wing media would be labelling it a "win." It was certainly a moral victory in a district that Pompeo won in November by 30+ points. Likewise, for Ossoff to pick up half the vote in a district that Price won by 20 points in November was a moral victory, and certainly exceeded expectations. Even the most optimistic supporters didn't expect he'd hit 50%.

Run-offs are tricky, especially after special elections, but Ossoff's campaign clearly didn't count on winning it outright, and banked resources. The Democrats are raising large amounts right now, so he'll get more. And his opponent, who beat the Trump guy by 10%, has to campaign through several more weeks of Trump ineptitude and lies, which is Ossoff's biggest advantage. He starts with 50%, and he's running against a career politician, which might not have been an advantage two years ago, but is now.

[Haruo]