Ed Setzer's Analysis

[Dave Roberts]

This is fascinating coming from Ed Setzer

[KeithE]

I do wonder how much this may reflect changing habits about deleting people from the roles.

Any thoughts about that?

[Ed Pettibone]

[William Thornton]

Churches are more likely to pay attention to membership rolls these days but one notes that weekly attendance has declined significantly from last year. Not mentioned is that a considerable chunk of the figures are "carry forward" sums from previous years. That is, churches aren't reporting at all. We assume they are exactly as they were the last year they did report.

Additionally, many states are in semi-rebellion in reporting some figures. they change the question or just don't ask churches for certain information.

Me? I say it's the mod/libs fault...that, and Obama. [tic]

[Dave Roberts]

[Tim Bonney]

[Jerry_B]

Numerical measurement is a false prophet of sorts. Not a good measure of actual faithfulness and they are so easily manipulated. William pointed out the reliance on churches reporting problem. Add to that the whole question of transfers who leave one brand of church and join another, I don't know if I would consider that an actual loss. Counting noses accurately is just so hard to do.

I also wonder if saving any denomination is a wise course of action? If the thing is trying to die, if new ideas are out there, does a denomination have the ability to respond? Increasingly the answer has been no. Does a Baptist church even need a denomination? If so, does it need to look like the ones we have right now?

[Sandy]

I know part of Stetzer's business is analysis of the membership data, but it is interesting that I've never really seen much from him about how it was gathered, or how to get a bunch of independent, autonomous churches to submit the ACP (Annual Church Profile) that contains a lot of information which many of them apparently do not consider all that important. There was a time when most of the DOM's in associations spent a lot of time and effort calling and goading churches into getting their forms turned in so they could be 100% in the association's annual report, but judging by the number of carry overs and blank lines in the state convention annuals, that's not happening anymore. Maybe Stetzer's office at Lifeway could come up with a more accurate way to gather data, or a more effective way to get churches to do it.

Churches and denominations decline for varying reasons. The drop off in attendance and membership in mainline denominations, which started in the 60's, and which has continued into the 21st century despite all kinds of efforts to arrest it, involved different reasons and patterns of decline than what has been a more recent decline among conservative Evangelicals, including Southern Baptists. The two standard Southern Baptist answers for every problem, "Be more committed to missions," and "Do a better job of evangelism," are probably connected to the root of the problem, but there's more to it than that. The methods of "doing evangelism" that were so successful in the 50's, 60's and 70's depended on social conditions and cultural life that are much different now. The way we do church is a cultural model more than it is a Biblical one, and so far, few have figured out how to separate the Biblical elements of "ecclesia" from the cultural model in such a way as to reach into the non-Christian community and win converts, at least, not in post-denominational, post-Christian America. We have some who have figured out how to do traditional church culture big enough and entertaining enough to deplete smaller congregations and gather in bigger groups, and that's about it.

[Tim Bonney]

[Dave Roberts]

To me, the main thing that Setzer is saying is that the SBC is not immune to the malaise affecting Christianity. I like Sandy's description of the megas as traditional with entertainment to deplete smaller churches. The problem for the SBC is that depleting the smaller and mid-size churches depletes the money from the denomination because they have been far bigger givers, per capita, than the megas have ever been. The explosion of the mega churches and the continuing election of mega pastors to lead seems to be biting the hand that has fed the SBC since its beginnings.

[Sandy]