by Sandy » Wed Jun 11, 2014 3:48 pm
This one is a bit tough to analyze. Cantor is one of the faces of the tea party, and his opponent didn't specifically identify that way. Cantor's campaign fund was stuffed with money raised from some of the most extremist right wing backers in the country. The GOP vote total in the primary was down considerably, predictable in a non-presidential election year, but with only 12% of the electorate casting ballots, that means that Brat's win came with a single digit percentage of voters. Cantor's obfuscations and double talk about immigration couldn't be perceived as a real threat to conservatives who want a lily white America back. Part of the problem is that he depended on the money, and the ad buys, while the other guy worked the sidewalks.
Brat''s position on a lot of things is vague and unknown. Is he the Sarah Palin/Rick Perry kind of candidate, billed as a newcomer political star, but doomed from the outset because at some point, people expect you to speak and every time you open your mouth, you lose support and votes? Can he convince establishment, moderate Republicans (most of whom want immigration reform in the party's platform) to turn out on election day, or even not to vote for the other party's candidate? Time will tell.
There are indications, in the vote analysis, that a lot of the votes cast in the GOP primary came from crossover Dems and independents. There are places in the country where the Democrats have openly campaigned by pushing the tea party loon, against an established Republican, to increase their chances of gaining a seat. Some Dems have even spent money to help choose their opponent. In such a low turnout election like this one, it doesn't take that many votes to create a result.