Looks like a memo meltdown for CBS

[William Thornton]

wm: Either it's a perfect storm for Bush on this one, or some Bushie is extremely clever, or CBS is stupid. Hey, Dan, "confession" not "courage" is needed now.

I don't even doubt that Bush goofed off in the 70s but this is all bad news for Kerry.

[KeithE]

[Sandy]

[William Thornton]

[Jonathan]

[fox]

[William Thornton]

[Sandy]

[William Thornton]

[Sandy]

[Jonathan]

[William Thornton]

[Norm]

[Sandy]

[William Thornton]

Is that positive enough, William?[/quote]

wm: Sure. But isn't it pretty much a given that there are hordes of folks like you who like Kerry less than other Demos who were in the primaries and who like him now only because he is not Bush? Seems to me, that's a recipe for an unenergized democratic electorate.

BTW, nothing wrong with being anti-bush or anti-kerry. It's just that no one ever points to any kerry accomplishments. Even you only pointed to the fact that he has been in the Senate for several terms but couldn't hang a single prominent accomplishment on him for those years of service.

[fox]

[Sandy]

Well, William. Make sure you are sitting down. You might want to pull your chair a bit closer to your desk so you don't topple over after reading this. I agree with you.

The result of this election will be determined by turnout. In the voter motivation category, I'd say that the religious right is probably the most solid base behind Bush, with the white upper middle class and upper class corporate establishment at least as equally motivated. Among those groups, voter registration is high, and participation is usually pretty high. However, there aren't enough of them to win, and not enough of a combination of both groups in any single state to carry it without some centrist support. African Americans are the most reliable Democratic constituency, along with organized labor, working class whites and hispanics, and the two thirds of retired senior citizens who are living on small pensions and social security. But those groups tend to be socially conservative. On the other side of the party are the social liberals who tend to be mostly white, mostly middle class and with a higher level of education. It's hard to bring those groups together in the first place.

The single uniting factor is discontent with the Bush presidency. From what I've observed, that may be just high enough for Kerry to slip in with very little room to spare. I've been working pretty hard in my own precinct, which is a white, upper middle class suburban neighborhood in Tom Delay's district in conservative Texas. Discontent with both Bush and Delay has certainly energized the Democrats in the precinct. Voter registration in Texas is non-partisan, but we've increased the total number in the precinct from 4,400 to 4,900 and Democratic party registrars account for just about all of the increase. I've encountered a surprising and significant number of people who voted for Bush in 2000 but who plan to vote for Kerry in 2004. Running into Gore voters switching to Bush is rare. At the county Democratic convention, similar reports came in from other precincts. Granted, this is but a small slice of the country but this is a suburban Texas community. However, when it is all said and done, it is discontent that is the motivating factor.

I'd love to see Kerry move to the left just enough to be right about the center of the Democratic party. I think he could win on the issues. The Catholics and Mainline Protestants who line up opposite the conservatives and fundamentalists are a potentially larger constituency than the religious right. The anti-war social liberals are a very activist group who would do a lot of behind the scenes work to get out the vote. I think if Kerry had taken a very strong position right between Dick Gephardt and Howard Dean, he wouldn't really need the dissatisfaction factor to win.

Watching the subscription poll services, and seeing how things have developed over the last couple of weeks, I'm cautiously optimistic where Kerry is concerned. A former colleague of mine in the education business (who happens to be a middle of the road Republican) thinks Kerry will take 19 of the 20 states that Gore won in 2000. He predicts that Wisconsin, which went Gore, will go Bush in 04, but New Hampshire and Ohio will go Kerry. He thinks Kerry will also one of either Arizona, Colorado or Nevada, and gives him even odds on Florida. The only other Gore 2000 state he thinks could go either way is Iowa, which won't matter if Kerry picks up Ohio. He's been right on target since 1992.

[mlovell]

[KeithE]

[fox]