First "Skirmish" In 2012 Prez Election??

[Sandy]

http://www.cnn.com/2011/11/07/opinion/s ... google_cnn

How quickly things turn around these days.

I never really knew a lot about Ohio, and the last time I'd been there, prior to a stop at the Cincinnati Airport on the way from Houston to DC several years ago (and discovered the Cincinnati airport is actually in Kentucky, not Ohio!) I was 12 years old and spent the summer with my grandparents while my mom had surgery. The town they lived in was full of Amish people, and in the middle of some of the richest farmland in the country, so I've always pictured Ohio as flat, conservative, upper midwest values kind of a place. Venturing across the state line now, which is 20 minutes to the west, I see a very different part of it. The Youngstown area, known as the Mahoning Valley, is a gritty, industrial area that has declined in population and political influence in recent years, but can still deliver a couple of congressmen. The upper Ohio river valley is much the same, gritty working class towns where the chief employment is still some kind of manufacturing or shipping along the river. It's considered a "swing state" largely because the constituencies of the far right and the far left are practically non-existent, and the moderate, independent vote is large and can sway one way or the other depending on the issue. In 2008, it swayed heavily toward Obama, and he won, and picked up 5 congressional seats along the way. In 2010, the Democrats lost those 5 seats. Most of the polls show that if they had to run tomorrow, the 5 republicans holding those seats now would lose almost 60-40. And this Senate bill which is billed as the first skirmish has awakened and activated the Democratic party and its constituents in Ohio.

Pushing extreme right wing agendas and tea party issues tend to activate and help mobilize the opposition. Look at Wisconsin. A conservative-backed governor is probably going to get recalled because he wouldn't negotiate the collective bargaining agreement with his state employees. Though the recall election didn't quite get that last seat, it shifted the power base and won a significant majority of the votes, now directing its energy at recalling the governor and electing one that will nullify the new law. Polls show the recall will succeed by about 10% of the vote.

With the GOP field being what it is, I'm not expecting any change at the top come 2012.

[Dave Roberts]

I'm already sick and tired of the 2012 election. Today is election day here, and I could not see anything on the ballot to suggest anything that could influence national politics, but I'm certain there will be a talking head who tries to make it appear that some vote here today had something to do with 2012.

[KeithE]