New campaign season begins

[Neil Heath]

The TV carried Perry's announcement a while ago and has just shown some of Michelle Bachmann's speech in Iowa. The new season is officially off and running with the straw poll in Iowa. My sympathies to the Iowans. They all talk a good line, but that doesn't mean much when they have to deal with reality while in office. I don't think any of them can do what they promise, since they can't enact a single law by themselves.

Lots of references to God by Michelle. Only saw part of Perry's speech, so I don't know what he might have done today. I do know he led that big prayer rally recently. I have really mixed feelings about people who parade their faith on the campaign trail.

I'm not a political animal, I mostly dread the whole campaign season. I've not heard anything yet that would cause me to consider a change of vote from the last election.

[KeithE]

A vote for Obama seems to me much like a vote for Bush. Both had a modest healthcare bills enacted (mostly caving in the the various medical business sectors), both have allowed Wars w/o real purpose to proceed, both are favoring big business with subsidies galore added, both are allowing surveillance of domestic communications w/o FISA, both have keep Gitmo alive, both gave $$$s to bailout the bankers w/o strings attached, neither has done anything about immigration reform, both have lost jobs, both have increased the national debt, neither have enforced environmental laws, both have increased defense spending and used it mostly for offensive purposes, and both have tried to quell anti-muslim violence (this one attempt is good). In short Obama has come to act like a right leaning Conservative (like Bush) even though there are occassional Obama words to the contrary. Perhaps Obama has stopped the torture, but that is about the only diffrence I can think of, in terms of actual actions. Think about this factually, please; not just emotional reactions.

{Personally I think it likely that Bush allowed and enhanced 9/11 (Obama has not done that, but he very well may have staged a OBL killing). But ignore that if you don't agree. However, I strongly recommend the new book only 100 sort pages before you ignore. I will mail anyone a copy, just PM me. }

The conservative candidates these days are all trying to out conservative each other and are essentially more right wing than Bush (who for instance enacted the guest worker program since business interests wanted chaep labor and the Medicare Perscription Bill since Big Pharma wanted the volume of high priced sales). No candidate on the Repuboican side can survive with those stances on immigration or Medicare.

I'm looking for a real alternative (Sanders, Kucinich, Paul[with reservations], Nader or someone new) who will get us out of the counterproductive wars (only has created more animosity towards us), and bring about a Jobs Programs (yes Keynesian economics) for alternative energy, education, and infrastructire repair/enhancement.

Perhaps Obama will revert to his old progressive self if re-elected (and he has only been trying to tact to the middle/right to help his re-election). But I really do not believe that is honorable (bait and switch) given the 100,000's of people who have died in our wars, and the many people who have lost homes and/or jobs during his reign.

[Sandy]

The radio dee-jay lobby is already gearing up for a potential Obama win in 2012. Limbaugh had some of his set-up callers this week talking about ACORN and how if the Democrats win in 2012, it will be because of massive election fraud, so they're building their straw men arguments for the four years of Obama's second term. Given the recent polls which show the Democrats at 50% favorability, and the Republicans at 33%, figures which were almost exactly reversed a year prior to the 2010 elections, and that there is not a GOP candidate in the field right now that can muster the support and put together an electoral scenario to defeat Obama, that's what I would expect to hear. Beck has turned up the shrill sounding prophecy of doom, telling people to get ready for the worst because the sky is falling, the world is ending and the sun is imploding all because Obama was elected.

Perry is going to have to come up with more than a few catchy cliches to become the party's frontrunner. He's been governor of Texas for 11 years, longer than any other, but the record he can point to, from an economic perspective, is not all that great. The only category of job growth in Texas since he's been in office has been in the minimum wage sector. Engineering, the tech sector, energy and housing construction have all fallen off, and there are currently 26 states which have a better unemployment rate. He can brag about the state's tax rates, but the state only collects sales tax and corporate taxes. Texans actually pay about 5% more of their income in taxes than residents of Massachussetts and New York because local taxing entities are forced to keep their rates high because they don't get help from the state. School district taxes in Texas are astronomical because of Perry's budget cuts to education.

President Obama was elected with a fairly substantial margin of victory, receiving more votes than any candidate in history, and a significant margin separating him from his opponent, which Bush never achieved. I think there was an expectation that he would gravitate back toward a Democratic party philosophical view of the government's role in economic recovery, which has worked every time there''s been a recession since the Great Depression. I think his failure to follow through with that cost him control of the house in 2010, and if he's not careful, he may lose enough of the far left to make the 2012 race too close for comfort.

Too bad Jim isn't around. He's fond of saying tha tthe recession came about when the Democrats gained control of Congress in 2006. Well, the stock market was recovering, and unemployment was falling under Obama until the Republicans got control of the house. They are, after all, responsible for the purse strings.

[Ed Pettibone]

Ed: While we are speculating; A different scenario for Sandy. Obama's popularity keeps slipping or at least does not show significant new traction about February he starts showing signs of fatigue by Mid march the Doctors do not have clue so the VP is prepped more and more and and joins the president more often on his infrequent trips thus causing the polls to slip even further. By the first of May the democrats are beginning to solidly promote another candidate (maybe H.R.C), At the convention the alternative becomes the candidate, already more popular than the Republican nominee. The Doctors come up with a diagnosis and it seems good they have a new candidate Obama is truly a lame duck. The question is can he make it through the term. Just before the election he takes a medical leave . The alternate wins. About Christmas time the Doctors discover they where wrong and Obama is put on a new regime of treatments and after the inauguration begins to show slow but steady improvement and by march is talking with the University of Chicago about going back to work at his highest level of competency. As a republican, I think Romney has the best chance of winning (not that he is my choice) but I think he will be the candidate. It may be close.

[Dave Roberts]

It's 15 months to the election, and I'm already weary. This campaign seems to have started at least a year ago. Are we doomed to incessant elections?

[Ed Pettibone]

[Dave Roberts]

Ed, that's golden spur material to me, but of course David makes the awards.