Egypt Today . . .and the USA Today

[Hal Eaton]

While watching this morning's news detailing the "protests" of the "anti-government" and "pro-government" forces in Egypt, some thoughts come to mind:

How do you identify the enemy in such a crowd?

If Egypt had a constitution that allowed people to "bear arms," would that resolve the issue?

If Egypt had an NRA, would that give teeth to the protesters (on both sides)?

If Baptist-preacher Huckaby were running for governmental office in Egypt, would he brag about carrying a concealed weapon?

The relativity of morals and ethics, and the applicability of "freedom to bear arms" principles to all situations, become suitable questions for discussion and debate.

And, finally, in the TV display of the masses of protesters, I saw no sign of a single Port-a-Potty. In words spoken by many protesters, "Somebody should do something about it."

IMO, and a little TIC (but only a little).

[Mrs Haruo]

In a large area bereft of portapotties (or where the said "Necessaries" are overflowing and overloaded) there are certain advantages of wearing a long full skirt. When we had our recent "Snowmageddon" the monday before Thanksgiving and many commuters were stuck on the road in massive traffic jams that took hours to untangle, there was a lot of yellow snow along the freeway. "Nature Calls" and a short walk to examine a new wild flower don't you know? Wasn't me however, I was warm at home anxiously awaiting the arrival of my hunter and gatherer.

[Jim]

[KeithE]

[Chris]

[Chris]

The best wall-to-wall coverage is here. http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/

[Jim]

Regardless of the situations that obtain in other Middle East countries vis-à-vis governmental change, this country had better hope Mubarak stays in place until September, the time for elections. El Baradei, who lives in Vienna, didn’t just show up conveniently to try to take over the government. His outfit, the Muslim Brotherhood, may or may not have sent for him, but when that group gets its hooks into the government, the stage will be set for genuine catastrophe. The Suez Canal could be closed to any U.S. shipping or warships, just for starters. In fact, it could be blown away. Mubarak (paid off with $1.7 billion per year of U.S. tax money) keeps it open to this country. The Israelis could immediately arm all their nukes because the Muslim Brotherhood does not recognize Israel as a nation, while the official government does. Most of the people in this forum care nothing for Israel but this country would be drawn into a terrible conflict if the Israelis come under serious attack. Pakistan also has nukes, so the sky’s the limit. It ain’t just about Israel…it’s about all of us.

Secretary Clinton (“warm personal friendship” with Mubarak and his wife [NY Times]) last week said the administration considered Mubarak’s government stable. Two days later, Biden said the administration didn’t consider Mubarak a dictator. Then, everything happened. Since then, Obama and his other dimwits, instead of keeping their mouths shut as they should have done, have encouraged the violence. They have no clue and every head of state knows this. It’s no accident that many of the protestors’ signs are in English. If Mubarak leaves now, the bloodbaths begin as the Muslim Brotherhood and other Muslim outfits go after current bureaucrats, police, etc., then after killing them, go after each other until the Muslim Brotherhood wins. Nobody knows what the sizeable and well-armed military would do, though the top general may declare himself in charge, with martial law in place indefinitely. In the meantime, there’s no government and no government services, such as they are…every man for himself. Anarchy!

In a broad swath of Muslim-controlled nations from Morocco, across North Africa, and down west Saudi Arabia to Yemen, the median age of the population is 24.4 years, compared to 36.8 in this country. There’s little work, a high birth rate, inferior education. The literacy rate in Egypt is only 72%, in Yemen, 58.9%. The Muslim Brotherhood would make women into even more pronounced chattel than they are now. They are perhaps better off in Egypt now than in any other Middle East country. They can’t even drive cars in Saudi Arabia. Mubarak will not run in September but in the intervening time there needs to be some sort of peace and leeway while an order of some kind can be attempted.

[Dave Roberts]

I don't usually agree with Jim on a lot of things, but his post is a reminder that there are no simple answers in this conflict. Mubarek is a thug without question. The problem is with who will replace him. Egypt seems to run on tourism, and the loss of foreign trust in one's safety in the country is the death knell of that industry. What is there may reflect some of the predictions of Paul Ehrlich's book "The Population Bomb" with its reminders of the consequences of runaway birth rates in a world with limitations on resources, food, and money. Our foreign aid money to the Egyptian ruling family and military will never buy stability.

[Jim]

The Friday demonstrations in Cairo were peaceful. The reason: The news people from all over the world, especially from the U.S., were invited out, often in very harsh ways. These organizations had their agendas, almost entirely anti-Mubarak, at least as far as those of the U.S. were concerned. When the cameras were gone, the protesters realized that they had no edge, as artificial as it was anyway. Venezuela’s Chavez has just announced that if the Suez is closed oil will rise to $200 per barrel. Today, gas is well over $3.00 at the pump ($3.09 for me with a Kroger card – 10 cents off). Yet, after lurching in all directions, Obama and Clinton are on the record as trying to “broker” a deal to get rid of Mubarak immediately (perhaps cutting off aid – now at $1.5 billion a year – a Congressional matter and not the president’s), not in an orderly, transitional way. With the army on his side, Mubarak stays until the army is not on his side. He’s no beauty but at least Egypt is only 90% Sunni Muslim instead of 99%, as in Algeria, about the same as most other countries in that area. Mubarak and Yemen’s President Saleh (also a 30-year + guy) are the only U.S. allies in fighting the terrorists, so there’s a natural trade-off. Anyhow, the U.S. Congress routinely entertains operatives with well over 30 years of service, so what else is new?

[Dave Roberts]

I don't see any easy outs for Mubarek or for the Egyptian people as a whole. A change of rulers or even a change in their form of government will not dissipate unemployment or the struggle of most of the people to provide food and shelter in their difficult economy. There are few great oil riches in the deserts of Egypt, and the Aswan Dam is still their largest single source of power. The ability to live off tourism demands relative safety and security for the people who travel there. The Muslim Brotherhood does not offer any answers for Egypt. Indeed, over the past hundred years, at various times, Egypt has been a client state of the British, the Russians during Nasser's rule, and of the Americans since the Camp David accords. They have not developed their own infrastructure to provide employment opportunities for the masses born in the past 25 years. It is not a situation that lends itself to quick answers, IMHO.

[Jim]

It’s impolitic and politically incorrect to do so, but the Muslim countries can be compared to the countries of Latin America, which were colonized largely by nations in which Roman Catholicism was perhaps the main player. The Catholic missionaries discouraged individual study of the scriptures, preferring indoctrination to understanding. This was another way of discouraging meaningful education concerning everything else. South America, if anything, is blessed with more natural resources than North America, with Brazil alone almost as large as the lower 48. Look at the difference between them not only economically but governmentally, largely fashioned at the point of the gun in Latin America. North America was colonized by people accustomed to thinking for themselves, spiritually and otherwise. Education was a main difference.

The Muslim countries have essentially no industry other than tourism, as noted. The power rests almost entirely with the ayatollahs, imams, etc., who operate under the Koran and therefore bloodthirstily. Compare that to the Inquisition-operated Catholicism to see some answers. Ignorance is actually glorified, as evidenced, for instance, in the “honor killings” of girls, with no similar treatment for men, not that either would be right. Granted that much of the topography is hostile to development, people with freedom from religious fanaticism and consequent ignorance can be expected to take care of themselves. Corruption by both the religionists and the government is a factor, as in Egypt, but there’s enough corruption in Washington and state capitals to make that fact almost moot. We survive that corruption because we have the tools, especially mentally, although the bent toward federal authoritarianism in this country is scary. For instance, the “salt” laws are in the works, government telling people what they may eat. Or, there are 777 exemptions now from the Healthcare law just passed for entities such as labor unions and favored businesses, with no accountability to anyone. Presumably, Sunstein, the main regulator, makes these decisions, entirely political in nature…but, who knows?

[KeithE]

There are no certain outcomes in Egypt. On that I'll agree with Dave Roberts. But the people (including the Muslim Brotherhood) are behind democracy - a good place to start. Far better than in areas occupied by US troops.

The Muslim Brotherhood (MB) is by no means a monolithic group and they no longer support their original stance of installing Sharia Law (although I assume there are some with that wish). They are much more into non-religious, political reform than theological-based political reform.



look down past the news updates for numerous statements which seem quite reasonable to me.


look down past the news

[Jim]

Probably never has this country been more leaderless than it is now. Obama, in the Egyptian matter, has acted like a hormone-driven high school sophomore who knows everything…and nothing. .

[Chris]