by Sandy » Wed Nov 24, 2010 10:55 am
Those who "strongly approved" of Bush's presidency during the last couple of years were fewer than 15%, or about half of what Obama now has. But the citation above is also Rasmussen, which is not objective or accurate when it comes to measuring Democrats, and skews Republicans upward.
The economy was the top issue in the mid-term elections, a fact that was demonstrated by exit polling across the country. The GOP is leaning toward making the monumental, and probably very costly mistake of thinking it was opposition to health care, expansion of government intrusion, and the mechanics of the solutions to economic recovery that the Obama administration proposed. Obviously, there were conservative elements who pushed those issues to the top of the table, tea partiers mostly, and the media made a lot of the handful of those who did get elected, mostly by defeating mainstream Republicans in the primaries in districts that would have gone GOP anyway. What happened, if you look at the numbers, was that a disappointed Democratic constituency did not turn out in the numbers that they did in 2006 or 2008. The Republicans pulled down about 53% of the votes cast this month, but in the 60 or so races that made the difference in control of the house, their average margin of victory was less than 1%. If the Democrats had just managed a 1% greater turnout, which would still have been below their 2006 total, they would still control the house.
There are two factors in play right now which lead me to believe Obama will win a second term without too much difficulty. One will be the choice of the GOP regarding who their candidate will be. Among the current list of GOP hopefuls, there are none who do well enough against the President at this point to be considered competetive. Palin and Gingrich are, for all practical purposes, unelectable. The other will be how much economic improvement occurs between now and 2012, and how much of the credit for it will go to the President. The backlash from GOP efforts to continue gridlock politics as usual, such as the announced effort by McConnell to deny him a second term, may also have some effect. Those were the same mistakes they made when Bill Clinton was in office, and it cost them.
The GOP establishment hasn't even taken their house seats and they are already resisting the tea party effort to eliminate earmarks. The voters are tired, and they're in the mood for real change. So I think the GOP control of the house might be short lived.