Will my mod lib friends smile again...

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Will my mod lib friends smile again...

Postby William Thornton » Tue Nov 06, 2018 6:40 am

...after a two years of having their hair-on-fire, being in a black dog depression, perpetually scowling, affixing false hopes on the electoral college, Russia investigation, and impeachment...while the stock market soared, unemployment plummeted, consumer confidence took off like a rocket, and manufacturing jobs started returning to the good old U. S. of A?

I'm almost pulling for you guys...but...not quite.

Pundrity is great...until the votes are counted.

Blue tsunami? Blue wave? Blue ripple? Blue trickle?

Obama got shellacked in the midterms. Will Trump?

We can still be friends...
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Re: Will my mod lib friends smile again...

Postby Tim Bonney » Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:37 am

William,

As I said a week or so again, I'm not going to argue about politics here any longer. But there are two things that would make me smile tonight. If the DNC took control of the house and if racist white supremacist Steve King of NW Iowa lost his seat tonight. A good economy is nice. (BTW, the our Midwest farm communities are seeing few positive effects of the good economy.) But freedom and equality for all is a lot better.
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Re: Will my mod lib friends smile again...

Postby William Thornton » Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:14 am

Tim Bonney wrote:William,

As I said a week or so again, I'm not going to argue about politics here any longer. But there are two things that would make me smile tonight. If the DNC took control of the house and if racist white supremacist Steve King of NW Iowa lost his seat tonight. A good economy is nice. (BTW, the our Midwest farm communities are seeing few positive effects of the good economy.) But freedom and equality for all is a lot better.


Guy's a piece of work.
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Re: Will my mod lib friends smile again...

Postby Sandy » Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:54 pm

I'll still smile regardless. I'm kind of insulated now in a state, county and city that is dominated by Democrats and having enjoyed some of the benefits of that environment, I'll still smile. I like political discussion, I think paying attention is important, I like the analysis given by the pollsters before and after (Nate Silver being a particular favorite) and if there are wins or losses, well, there is always another election coming.

I'd be smiling if the Dems take the house, and pick up a few of the governor's races and state houses they're predicted to win. Seeing some African Americans ascend to power in places that were once considered impossible would be of historical significance. And there's a chance for the senate to add to its number of women depending on how things go there.
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Re: Will my mod lib friends smile again...

Postby KeithE » Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:43 pm

William Thornton wrote:...after a two years of having their hair-on-fire, being in a black dog depression, perpetually scowling, affixing false hopes on the electoral college, Russia investigation, and impeachment...while the stock market soared, unemployment plummeted, consumer confidence took off like a rocket, and manufacturing jobs started returning to the good old U. S. of A?

I'm almost pulling for you guys...but...not quite.

Pundrity is great...until the votes are counted.

Blue tsunami? Blue wave? Blue ripple? Blue trickle?

Obama got shellacked in the midterms. Will Trump?

We can still be friends...


How can William say “unemployment has plummeted” (under Trump) but not point out how much it decreased under Obama.

Image

As for the stock market, look at Dow Jones last ten years (sorry plot not easy to reproduce). Sure 2017 was as good as it has got, but as Trump policies have set in in 2018, it has gone flat for the first time in 9 years.

As for consumer confidence, the rise during the Obama years was substantial and has leveled off some since Trump came to power.
Image

As for manufacturing jobs, they started returning in about 2010 and there has been a slight upward acceleration since Trump has been in power. Look at first plot in: Manufacturers Are Hiring, and Hiring

Seems that William simply believes Trumpian exaggerations and turns them into super-heated terms (like those in red above).

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Re: Will my mod lib friends smile again...

Postby Sandy » Tue Nov 06, 2018 2:30 pm

KeithE wrote:Seems that William simply believes Trumpian exaggerations and turns them into super-heated terms (like those in red above).


None of what is now happening in the economy would have been possible without the economic gains of the previous eight years. All of the major gains in the stock market and drops in unemployment occurred in his administration. What's happened in the last two years are continuing trends, not upward movements following recession.
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Re: Will my mod lib friends smile again...

Postby Haruo » Tue Nov 06, 2018 3:32 pm

KeithE wrote:As for the stock market, look at Dow Jones last ten years (sorry plot not easy to reproduce). Sure 2017 was as good as it has got, but as Trump policies have set in in 2018, it has gone flat for the first time in 9 years.

I think this is what you're looking for, Keith:Image

Here's the missing last year of it (I agree, Keith, this is hard to display properly!):
Image
Yeah, that worked okay.
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Re: Will my mod lib friends smile again...

Postby William Thornton » Tue Nov 06, 2018 4:05 pm

Just trolling for some graphs...
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Re: Will my mod lib friends smile again...

Postby Tim Bonney » Tue Nov 06, 2018 7:26 pm

William Thornton wrote:
Guy's a piece of work.


Yes, but NW Iowa is about as red as it gets. It is the heart of the Christian Reformed Church. (Think Missouri Synod Lutherans or Independent Baptists on steroids )
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Re: Will my mod lib friends smile again...

Postby Haruo » Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:48 pm

Haruo wrote:
KeithE wrote:As for the stock market, look at Dow Jones last ten years (sorry plot not easy to reproduce). Sure 2017 was as good as it has got, but as Trump policies have set in in 2018, it has gone flat for the first time in 9 years.

I think this is what you're looking for, Keith:Image

Here's the missing last year of it (I agree, Keith, this is hard to display properly!):
Image
Yeah, that worked okay.

Actually, this wasn't the first plateau in 9 years, come to think of it. There was a similar stretch, more volatile but equally flat on average, between early 2015 and early 2016. And of course this is (as folks on FB have been quick to remind me when they thought I was unaware of it) only the Dow, not the market as a whole.
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Re: Will my mod lib friends smile again...

Postby Sandy » Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:42 pm

Smiling. :-)
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Re: Will my mod lib friends smile again...

Postby Haruo » Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:26 am

Be interesting to see if the two parties can get anything done together now that they need to cooperate to get anything done. Except new judges, the GOP still has a lock on that. Or if they'll basically just get to work on digging each other a new grave for 2020.
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Re: Will my mod lib friends smile again...

Postby William Thornton » Wed Nov 07, 2018 5:43 am

Beto beat, Abrams exits, Gillum gone, McKaskill kaput, Heitkamp takes a hike...

Hello divided government where, thankfully, nothing much happens unless Sotomayer and Kagan elope to Cuba as Tim's congress hopes and Trump gets two more SCOTUS appointments with a redder senate to work with.

I'm always smiling. Look for Pelosi et al to spend two years paving the reelection road for Trump.
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Re: Will my mod lib friends smile again...

Postby Dave Roberts » Wed Nov 07, 2018 6:27 am

In VA, we re-elected a popular US Senator, sent a Tea Party zealot back to academia, and saw a crook who had his own staff forging third party petitions to get another Democrat on the ballot washed out of the house. Not a bad night here. Stalemate government is something we learned well from Mitch.
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Re: Will my mod lib friends smile again...

Postby Dave Roberts » Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:27 am

I forgot to mention that we are also getting rid of Rep. Barbara Comstock in Northern VA.
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Re: Will my mod lib friends smile again...

Postby Tim Bonney » Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:31 am

A small smile. I'm pleased with the house results. And my district elected a Democrat over the incumbent Republican. But Iowa kept Steve King (how that keeps happening is inexplicable to me.) and Kim Reynolds, who has done a really poor job as governor since Terry Branstad left Iowa to become ambassador to China, was elected to a four year term.
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Re: Will my mod lib friends smile again...

Postby JE Pettibone » Wed Nov 07, 2018 1:50 pm

Tim Bonney wrote:A small smile. I'm pleased with the house results. And my district elected a Democrat over the incumbent Republican. But Iowa kept Steve King (how that keeps happening is inexplicable to me.) and Kim Reynolds, who has done a really poor job as governor since Terry Branstad left Iowa to become ambassador to China, was elected to a four year term.


Ed: In Floridia the "Blue Wave" wasn't even ripple. I am looking forward to the House leadership struggle among the Democrats.
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Re: Will my mod lib friends smile again...

Postby KeithE » Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:09 pm

Well it was a return to straight line Republican voting in Alabama. Straight line voting option is at the front of the ballot and I was be eager to learn how many just voted that way.

Look at this article about exit polls and tell me this was anything other than a "blue wave" when looked at in toto (all states).
Exit Polls:How Voting Blocs Have Shifted From the ’80s to Now

Yeah I’m disappointed with some of the higher profile contests (Beto, Gillum loses, probable Abrams/Sinema losses). But the important factor that there is a new found check on the President - namely the House. Trump is certainly the worse and most delusional President in American history (read Trump Must Go: The Top 100 Reasons to Dump Trump for the many factors that make me say so). And you know how bad I thought of Bush, Jr's first term.

I do hope that at least an infrastructure bill gets passed but some form of revenue enhancement will be needed (e.g. financial transaction tax - 0.1% tax on these “purchases” when groceries often get taxed by 4%).

I also hope that the majority of the Congressional checks on Trump will be on the conduct of the Executive Branch more than just Trump. Overview of the whole Executive Branch is their explicit responsibility. (Aside: recommended book is Michael Lewis’s The Fifth Risk although it only treats 3 Cabinets and the transition period where Christie was thrown under the bus). There is great dysfunction in the Executive Branch that has not been a focus of congressional/media or even scholarly attention.

Don’t get me wrong, the Russian investigation must be be completed soon. (Note Adam Schiff will be replacing Devin Nunes). I doubt 2/3rds of the Senate will vote to “remove” him, but that should not stop the House from “impeaching" this pathological liar/narcissistic/delusional/inattentive-to-his-responsibilities person sitting in the office of the Presidency.
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Re: Will my mod lib friends smile again...

Postby Sandy » Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:15 pm

If you're a Democrat, it was a pretty good night. When all races are called, it looks like about a 30 seat majority controlling the house, all of the committees and chairs and the ability to block Trump's every move. There wasn't a lot of fanfare over the fact that the Dems flipped 7 state houses as well, including getting majorities in most of those legislatures and I heard several comments about getting redrawn congressional districts on those agendas right away. The Senate was a bit of a disappointment, though if you look at the number of seats the Democrats had to defend in red states, once all the ballots are counted and all the races called, it may be just a loss of two seats. Put in a numerical perspective, 21 Democrats were elected to the Senate last night by an average margin of over 16%, while 9 Republicans were elected by an average margin of 6%. Blue wave, yeah, enough to call it that.

From a personal perspective, for the first time that I can remember, every Democrat I voted for won. No senate race here, though back in Pennsylvania, I did send contributions to the Casey campaign and he won by a landslide. Illinois was a gubernatorial flip, and was responsible for a couple of the congressional district flips. The congressional district where I grew up in Arizona was also a flip to the Democrats and for some reason, Arizona stopped counting ballots at 75% and decided to wait until Thursday to count the rest, so the senate race, which was a dead heat, won't be called until 400,000 ballots from Maricopa County are counted.

Disappointment? Yes, that the African American gubernatorial candidates in the deep South didn't get across the finish line, though Georgia is also apparently still counting votes. That Beto O'Rourke didn't get elected, though he did a whole lot better than anyone expected and the voters he managed to get out helped pick up three congressional districts. He got the attention of the national progressive movement though, and he will be back.

The country is polarized. Legislatively, last night means gridlock, at least potentially. Or maybe orange hair, who is committed more to popularity than principle, will work with the Dems to get things done so he can take credit for it. Gridlock doesn't have to be a bad thing, especially with orange hair in the WH.

:-)
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Re: Will my mod lib friends smile again...

Postby Haruo » Wed Nov 07, 2018 5:16 pm

Could have been better, could have been worse. I doubt if I'm a mod lib (never have been able to quite pin that down), but I'm able to smile today. I think I only voted in four contested races, and my batting average was 50%. Which is not bad. Though it would be better applied to baseball than politics.
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Re: Will my mod lib friends smile again...

Postby Tim Bonney » Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:47 pm

Sandy wrote:If you're a Democrat, it was a pretty good night.


In Iowa it was pretty disappointing. Keeping both a governor who has nearly destroyed healthcare in Iowa which, I understand, the single highest one year increase in costs in the nation and then keeping a white nationalist representative in NW Iowa, Steve King, in his seat is just embarrassing.

King is even an embarrassment to what is left of mainstream Republicans. But, it's starting to look like much of the GOP is taking such a shift to the right in NW Iowa that people in that part of the state would think Ronald Reagan was a liberal.
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Re: Will my mod lib friends smile again...

Postby Joseph Patrick » Thu Nov 08, 2018 1:49 am

From Gerry Milligan...While I do not (or cannot) identify with mods or libs (I do not really know what those terms mean, except in many of the contexts on BaptistLife, they are pejorative). Saying that, I am a 100% never trump. For those right wing nuts who fawn over everything our bone spurred deferred CIC does, just how presidential was he when he named repubs who were defeated in re-election, blaming them for not embracing him? And how does loosing one of the two houses of congress equal a win? I am smiling.
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Re: Will my mod lib friends smile again...

Postby KeithE » Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:14 pm

Tim Bonney wrote:
Sandy wrote:If you're a Democrat, it was a pretty good night.


In Iowa it was pretty disappointing. Keeping both a governor who has nearly destroyed healthcare in Iowa which, I understand, the single highest one year increase in costs in the nation and then keeping a white nationalist representative in NW Iowa, Steve King, in his seat is just embarrassing.

King is even an embarrassment to what is left of mainstream Republicans. But, it's starting to look like much of the GOP is taking such a shift to the right in NW Iowa that people in that part of the state would think Ronald Reagan was a liberal.


Along with King being re-elected, I am appalled that Duncan Hunter, Devin Nunez, and Chris Collins have been re-elected.
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Re: Will my mod lib friends smile again...

Postby Tim Bonney » Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:19 pm

KeithE wrote:
Along with King being re-elected, I am appalled that Duncan Hunter, Devin Nunez, and Chris Collins have been re-elected.


Definitely a mixed week!
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Re: Will my mod lib friends smile again...

Postby Haruo » Thu Nov 08, 2018 8:16 pm

Tim Bonney wrote:
KeithE wrote:
Along with King being re-elected, I am appalled that Duncan Hunter, Devin Nunez, and Chris Collins have been re-elected.

Matt Shea reelected handily. Yeccchhh.
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