Black female governor for GA?

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Black female governor for GA?

Postby William Thornton » Thu Jul 26, 2018 10:16 am

Not a snowball's chance in Gehenna. But let's dream:

http://time.com/5349541/stacey-abrams-georgia/

GOP candidate Kemp will have to crash and burn to lose.
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Re: Black female governor for GA?

Postby Joseph Patrick » Thu Jul 26, 2018 11:07 am

William Thornton wrote:Not a snowball's chance in Gehenna. But let's dream:

http://time.com/5349541/stacey-abrams-georgia/

GOP candidate Kemp will have to crash and burn to lose.


From Gerry Milligan ...aka Joseph Patrick

William, Being a pragmatist and being fairly well informed with the demographics of Georgia (sometimes spelled "racism), I agree with your take on this, no matter how red-necked candidate Kemp appears in his political ads.
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Re: Black female governor for GA?

Postby Haruo » Thu Jul 26, 2018 12:49 pm

William Thornton wrote:GOP candidate Kemp will have to crash and burn to lose.

One can always dream, and hope. Even if she comes within a point or three it'll be significant. And there's way too much time left to have a clue what "Trumpier than Trump" will mean in November as far as getting out the votes (and on both sides in this case).
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SEC Football, Vince Dooley and the Super Trumper

Postby Stephen Fox » Thu Jul 26, 2018 3:55 pm

William of Winder or close enough you were reading my mind on this one.

Scattershot as is my style but I get to the nuts and bolts of the matter. Have already brought this one to the attention of Meet the Press and several other national media outlets and let the Devil have the Hind Leg!!!

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Emanuel Episcopal Church

Postby Stephen Fox » Thu Jul 26, 2018 4:23 pm

According to Wiki Kemp is an active member of that congregation. He was educated in a prep school in Athens affiliated with the Church. I have attempted a facebook post on the church wall with a link to my blog about Vince Dooley and SEC.

The church is near enough William Thornton can drive over and have a conversation with the preacher about the NRA, Immigration etc and give us a report here.

I am active with friends in Episcopalian ministry in the vicinity.
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Re: Black female governor for GA?

Postby Sandy » Thu Jul 26, 2018 4:26 pm

A Democrat won a senate seat in neighboring Alabama in a statewide race by simply turning out the same constituencies Abrams is aiming at landing. Jones won because Democratic constituencies that had been dormant for a while were activated by opposition to Moore, and by anti-Trump sentiment which turned out the numbers they needed. But Jones was a white male. Being an African American woman in a southern state like Georgia, even with anti-trump sentiment running as high as it is, might be a tougher proposition than it was for a non-resident Jewish male to gain 20 percentage points for his party in a special election runoff in the same state.
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Re: Black female governor for GA?

Postby KeithE » Thu Jul 26, 2018 5:48 pm

William Thornton wrote:Not a snowball's chance in Gehenna. But let's dream:

http://time.com/5349541/stacey-abrams-georgia/

GOP candidate Kemp will have to crash and burn to lose.


Latest poll has Kemp leading by 2%, but with a 4.3% margin of error.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/ga/georgia_governor_kemp_vs_abrams-6628.html

Yet William declares a Abrams victory as likely as a "snowball's chance in Gehenna”.

As far as I’m concerned Kemp has already crashed and burned.
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Re: Black female governor for GA?

Postby William Thornton » Thu Jul 26, 2018 9:07 pm

Would put money on it. Take it to the bank. But it's a nice cover for Time and Abrams.

Seems I recall something about the GOP senate candidate who crashed and burned n Al...
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Re: Black female governor for GA?

Postby Lamar Wadsworth » Fri Jul 27, 2018 6:13 am

The buffoonery of Kemp talking about rounding up illegal aliens in the bed of his pickup truck brings to mind the racist buffoon Lester Maddox in the '60s chasing African-Americans out of his Pickrick Restaurant with an axe handle, selling autographed axe handles as campaign souvenirs, and riding a bicycle backwards. Kemp is more than capable of crashing and burning. For an increasing number of Georgians, a Trump endorsement is the kiss of death. I would not vote for anybody endorsed by Trump. Yes, here is one old white guy voting for Abrams on the first day of early voting. OK, I'm not exactly lily white--my Turner ancestors were Melungeons, what the old people called "Black Dutch." There's some Creek and Cherokee in the mix as well. Abrams has a powerful, compelling life story and she communicates it in a way that connects with people who have struggled all of their lives. She has such grace and dignity about her, especially in contrast with Kemp. She doesn't seem to hate anybody. She can work with halfway reasonable Republicans. I think Kemp will be easier to beat in the general election than Cagle would have been. My Roosevelt Democrat parents would have voted for her. The only time they ever voted for a Republican was when Bo Calloway ran against Lester Maddox for governor of Georgia in 1966 because Maddox's racist demagoguery went against everything they believed in.
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Re: Black female governor for GA?

Postby William Thornton » Fri Jul 27, 2018 8:25 am

I hear that Abrams needs about 25% of the white vote. Not sure she can get there. She's a good candidate.
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Re: Black female governor for GA?

Postby Dave Roberts » Fri Jul 27, 2018 10:00 am

My suspicion is that the election will depend on turnout in metro Atlanta. Georgia politics, like a lot of other states, seems dominated by the turnout in rural and small town areas.
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Re: Black female governor for GA?

Postby JE Pettibone » Fri Jul 27, 2018 10:54 am

Dave Roberts wrote:My suspicion is that the election will depend on turnout in metro Atlanta. Georgia politics, like a lot of other states, seems dominated by the turnout in rural and small town areas.


Ed: Dave, to me those two statements seem to be contradictory, would you help me reconcile them.
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Re: Black female governor for GA?

Postby Sandy » Fri Jul 27, 2018 11:57 am

William Thornton wrote:Seems I recall something about the GOP senate candidate who crashed and burned n Al...


Crashed and burned in that he managed to motivate a much larger than normal Democratic voter turnout, but he got the Republican constituencies. Any analysis of that Alabama senate race has to take into consideration that Moore got the Republican turnout which showed up last time there was a contested Senate race in Alabama. It was Democrats, motivated by anti-Moore and anti-Trump sentiment that registered and turned out rather than staying home as they normally would have done, and produced the numbers to win.

Georgians may not like to be compared to Alabama, though politically there are a lot of similarities. Looking at the polling data, Abrams has increased her percentage every week, while Kemp started higher than he is now. Georgia has a higher percentage of registered Democrats than Alabama did, though Jon Ossoff was able to land a vote total that was 15% higher than the total percentage of Democrats registered in the congressional district. This one is within the margin of error. Normally, I'd say it might be difficult for an African American woman to win in the south, but with Anti-trump sentiment running like it is, and in a state like Georgia, where she will likely motivate a larger segment of the African American population that usually votes mid-term, this might be an interesting one to watch.
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Re: Black female governor for GA?

Postby Haruo » Fri Jul 27, 2018 12:39 pm

I'm going to watch it. But I'm not sending her any money. That would be too much like the Russians.
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Re: Black female governor for GA?

Postby Dave Roberts » Sat Jul 28, 2018 10:34 am

JE Pettibone wrote:
Dave Roberts wrote:My suspicion is that the election will depend on turnout in metro Atlanta. Georgia politics, like a lot of other states, seems dominated by the turnout in rural and small town areas.


Ed: Dave, to me those two statements seem to be contradictory, would you help me reconcile them.

Atlanta has a larger African-American and other minority population that tends to vote Democratic. However, in many poorer urban areas, voter turnout is often quite low giving a higher chance for dominance by white dominated suburban and rural areas.
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Re: Black female governor for GA?

Postby KeithE » Sat Jul 28, 2018 9:07 pm

I was surprised about the degree of rural areas favoring Trump (except “black belts’) and urban areas (especially black neighborhoods) favoring Clinton.

Detailed Map of 2016 Election

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Re: Black female governor for GA?

Postby Joseph Patrick » Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:42 pm

Dave Roberts wrote:
JE Pettibone wrote:
Dave Roberts wrote:My suspicion is that the election will depend on turnout in metro Atlanta. Georgia politics, like a lot of other states, seems dominated by the turnout in rural and small town areas.


Ed: Dave, to me those two statements seem to be contradictory, would you help me reconcile them.

Atlanta has a larger African-American and other minority population that tends to vote Democratic. However, in many poorer urban areas, voter turnout is often quite low giving a higher chance for dominance by white dominated suburban and rural areas.

From Gerry Milligan...I thought that Georgia would never elect an African American, and a woman to boot, to be governor in Georgia, but Kemp must be seeing the handwriting on the wall to resort to voter suppression. I repeat what I learned in Romania, politicians can teach tricks to the devil.
William, what is the word from your perspective?
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Re: Black female governor for GA?

Postby William Thornton » Sat Oct 13, 2018 5:29 am

Hooey on the breathless claims of voter suppression. Page one of the democratic playbook.

Republicans in my state stink, exceeded in that only by the Democrats. I'm voting for Kemp, there's really not a choice here in the general, though I preferred another candidate in the primary.

Abrams would sandblast Lee, Davis, and Jackson off of Stone Mountain. She is the darling of the national media and deep pocket Dem donors, just like Michelle Nunn, daughter of Sam, was in the last senate election. The race is close. Abrams could win. Kemp isn't a strong candidate, frankly.

Since neither of our GOP senators is up for reelection this year, GOP interest may be flagging and turnout could favor an Abrams victory. Trump only won ga by five points, so the electoral landscape has shifted somewhat from what it was a decade ago.

Strong republican majorities in the state legislature would limit the damage she could do, though.
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Re: Black female governor for GA?

Postby KeithE » Sat Oct 13, 2018 8:57 am

Interesting race. Will say a lot about not only Georgia but how elections are run in the country.

Brian Kemp Has Put Democracy Itself on the Ballot in Georgia

The race is close. A recent survey shows Kemp ahead with 47.7 percent of the vote to Abrams’ 46.3 percent.


The race is so close that Kemp, who also serves as Georgia’s Secretary of state, has taken steps to handicap Abrams’ attempt to bring more voters to the polls.


Kemp’s office has stalled more than 53,000 applications for voter registration. And while Georgia’s population is approximately 32 percent black, 70 percent of the registrations on hold belong to black applicants, and a total of 80 percent belong to blacks, Latinos, and Asian Americans. These voters ran afoul of his office’s “exact match” system, which allows the state to put applications on hold for minor discrepancies between registration forms and official state records. And while voters can still cast a ballot with a pending registration if they present identification, civil rights groups say that this process creates confusion and raises additional barriers to voting. The discrepancies in question can amount to missing punctuation or small variations in spelling, a purportedly “neutral” procedure that burdens people whose names have punctuation or nonstandard spellings, a group that would appear to include blacks, Latinos, and Asian Americans. In 2016, civil rights groups filed suit against Kemp’s office for the “exact match” system, but in 2017, the Georgia Legislature passed a law codifying parts of that system.


Kemp denies discriminatory intent. But during his tenure as secretary of state, his office has canceled more than 1.4 million voter registrations. In August, Kemp was pressured to back down from a proposal by a political ally to eliminate three-fourths of voting locations in a rural county made up of predominantly black voters, but he has still been able to close polling locations in a number of majority-black areas.


Kemp, in other words, has had an intimate role in shaping the Georgia electorate, and with this attempt to stall tens of thousands of registrations, he has a significant opportunity to benefit from this work by claiming victory in an election he has attempted to rig in his own favor.


William, call it “hooey" if you like, but explain why you do so.

I’d say Jimmy Crater ought to get involved in monitoring this election.

Kemp’s campaign ads speak to his base base (two words intended) but no one else.
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The question for Georgia is whether or not it will throw off its racist voter suppression past and support democracy.
Another chapter in Georgia’s history of voter suppression.
Probably worse than Alabama’s.
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Re: Black female governor for GA?

Postby Dave Roberts » Sat Oct 13, 2018 9:49 am

If Kemp does not recuse himself for the process, he deserves to go to a different "state house," the one with bars on the windows and doors.
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Re: Black female governor for GA?

Postby Haruo » Sat Oct 13, 2018 11:39 am

Kemp is both governor and secy of state?
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Re: Black female governor for GA?

Postby Dave Roberts » Sat Oct 13, 2018 4:23 pm

Haruo wrote:Kemp is both governor and secy of state?


Candidate for governor while secy of state, thus controlling voter registrations for the election in which he is running.
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Re: Black female governor for GA?

Postby Haruo » Sat Oct 13, 2018 6:51 pm

Ah. He ought to be ashamed of himself.
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Re: Black female governor for GA?

Postby Sandy » Sat Oct 13, 2018 10:56 pm

KeithE wrote: The question for Georgia is whether or not it will throw off its racist voter suppression past and support democracy.
Probably worse than Alabama’s.


Reading some of the accounts following up on Alabama's senate election, the Republican controlled state house got alarmed when voter registrations began piling up from places where the majority of the population is African-American and tried to slow down the process prior to the senate special election.

This was a long shot six months back. The fact that they are trying to suppress the vote is an indication that the Republicans see a real chance of losing this election. Seems like her rise has also lifted a lot of the "boats" in state legislative elections.
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Re: Black female governor for GA?

Postby William Thornton » Sun Oct 14, 2018 4:43 am

Hooey, hooey, and hooey. Voter registration is a joke. Anyone who wants to vote should have a confirmed identity. I have to show my ID at the poll and match my name and address on the roll. So should everyone else. This is another page in the dem playbook.

I'm voting for one dem in the statewide races..for sec of state. Guy I know. Only dem in the state that isn't a soros, pelosi, schumer pawn.
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