Democrats have the deal sealed for November...

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Democrats have the deal sealed for November...

Postby David Flick » Sat Jul 21, 2018 2:07 am

Date: 7/21/18

Sandy Makes a political prediction. If I'm not wrong (I don't have the time nor energy to research the BL.Com archives), he predicted something to the effect that Hillary had the "deal sealed" well before November of the 2016 election. Just for kicks (and for the record), I'm going to post his prediction here and will invite others to watch and see if his political prediction comes true. If the Democrats have the "deal sealed" for November of '18, I'll be surprised. So the countdown begins today, for me anyway, to see if his political prediction comes true.

Sandy wrote:I'd kind of like to see the Mueller investigation get finished and report before November. What I'm seeing and reading from the "expert" sources, including some that are known to be either neutral, or right-leaning, the Democrats have pretty much already sealed the deal for November, and I think the border disaster and Helsinki "fiasco" (I heard a Fox news reporter call it that!) pushed it even further into their lap, but if the full impact of what Mueller has turned up, given the list of indictments and court orders that they've already issued, is made public sometime around the beginning of October, there will be intense pressure on the Republicans. You can bet the November election will be the most closely watched in American history.

After it was confirmed that Russia did indeed interfere in the 2016 election, on Trump's behalf, I figured we would start seeing signs that there was a deal made. Aside from just the appearance of being Putin's puppet, suck-up and lackey, Trump has openly advocated for removal of the Obama era sanctions against the Russians (I guess that is a sign that Trump has been tougher on Russia than any other president has been LOL) and has publicly stated that since Putin said he didn't interfere, he must be telling the truth. The secrecy of the Helsinki summit should be a major red flag that promises were made that Trump clearly doesn't want the American people to know about, otherwise, he'd be bragging about his deal-making prowess and what he had accomplished. My guess is that Putin is after money, and has offered Trump some kind of business benefit. This puts the US in grave danger, because I believe Trump would hand over the atomic football if he thought he would get some financial benefit from Putin for doing it, he is that corrupt, and that unethical.
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Re: Democrats have the deal sealed for November...

Postby Sandy » Sat Jul 21, 2018 9:31 am

Hillary got three million more votes than Trump, who got help from the Russians.
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Re: Democrats have the deal sealed for November...

Postby KeithE » Sat Jul 21, 2018 10:12 am

David Flick wrote:Date: 7/21/18

Sandy Makes a political prediction. If I'm not wrong (I don't have the time nor energy to research the BL.Com archives), he predicted something to the effect that Hillary had the "deal sealed" well before November of the 2016 election. Just for kicks (and for the record), I'm going to post his prediction here and will invite others to watch and see if his political prediction comes true. If the Democrats have the "deal sealed" for November of '18, I'll be surprised. So the countdown begins today, for me anyway, to see if his political prediction comes true.

Sandy wrote:I'd kind of like to see the Mueller investigation get finished and report before November. What I'm seeing and reading from the "expert" sources, including some that are known to be either neutral, or right-leaning, the Democrats have pretty much already sealed the deal for November, and I think the border disaster and Helsinki "fiasco" (I heard a Fox news reporter call it that!) pushed it even further into their lap, but if the full impact of what Mueller has turned up, given the list of indictments and court orders that they've already issued, is made public sometime around the beginning of October, there will be intense pressure on the Republicans. You can bet the November election will be the most closely watched in American history.

After it was confirmed that Russia did indeed interfere in the 2016 election, on Trump's behalf, I figured we would start seeing signs that there was a deal made. Aside from just the appearance of being Putin's puppet, suck-up and lackey, Trump has openly advocated for removal of the Obama era sanctions against the Russians (I guess that is a sign that Trump has been tougher on Russia than any other president has been LOL) and has publicly stated that since Putin said he didn't interfere, he must be telling the truth. The secrecy of the Helsinki summit should be a major red flag that promises were made that Trump clearly doesn't want the American people to know about, otherwise, he'd be bragging about his deal-making prowess and what he had accomplished. My guess is that Putin is after money, and has offered Trump some kind of business benefit. This puts the US in grave danger, because I believe Trump would hand over the atomic football if he thought he would get some financial benefit from Putin for doing it, he is that corrupt, and that unethical.

I agree with you David, that Sandy is too quick to declare likely victory. Wishful thinking I suppose. You would never be subject to such wishful thinking now would you David?

As for the 2016 elections, the polls were close to the final outcome in terms of the popular vote.
Popular vote: 48.5% Clinton vs 46.4% Trump - 2.1% difference: https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results
Poll of polls had it 45.7% Clinton vs 41.8% Trump - 3.9% difference: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/

Sandy was justified in expecting Hillary to win in 2016. But his surety was obviously too sure.

The case can also be made that the Comey’s Oct 28 announcement (on the need to continue the Clinton email investigation) cost Clinton the election.
The Comey Letter Probably Cost Clinton The Election
Image

But, imo, is was the gerrymandering effect (inherent in the Electoral College(EC) counting) that mostly gave the election to Trump. Trump won more states by small margins (getting more than just rewards in EC counting) while Clinton won the larger states (CA, NY) by larger margins (getting less than just rewards in EC counting). This was not a deliberate gerrymandering, but its effects cannot be denied.

The many states who Repubicans have gerrymandered for state-wide advantage, do so by creating districts that are mainly democratic and minority (givng up on those districts) while making many districts who vote republican but by smaller amounts. This has been deliberate and should be reversed. Do you understand that David?

That effect will help Republicans in Nov 18.

Unknowns are:
- the degree that an energized younger voters will participate (climate and gun issues really matters to these voters).
- the degree that Trump’s self-servingness and lack of ethics gets recognized by the religious right and other dupees.
- the degree that Russia efforts work (again) - and I do think the Trump invite to Putin before the election is precisely to help Trump.
- will Mueller indict the President by that time?
- the degree that economy is percolating (effects of tariffs, infrastructure spending) and perceived the middle America (is your pocketbook actually better off?).


BTW, the GDP growth is expected to be over 4% for 2QCY - announcement soon (near to the growth seen under Obama’s best year 2014) but is expected to drop to 2% or lower in 3QCY (will the announcement be delayed to be after Nov 6?).

Image

Overall I'm a lot more pessimistic than Sandy in terms of a “blue tide”. But will continue advocating for Progressive principles (making lives better throughout the world - especially the world’s poor).
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Re: Democrats have the deal sealed for November...

Postby William Thornton » Sat Jul 21, 2018 10:43 am

Sandy wrote:Hillary got three million more votes than Trump, who got help from the Russians.


Love these discussions.

Even after the rigged primaries. S h e. L o s t.
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Re: Democrats have the deal sealed for November...

Postby William Thornton » Sat Jul 21, 2018 10:45 am

Work wid me here retired rocket scientist. Electoral college and gerrymandering? A state is a state is a state.
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Re: Democrats have the deal sealed for November...

Postby KeithE » Sat Jul 21, 2018 10:54 am

William Thornton wrote:Work wid me here retired rocket scientist. Electoral college and gerrymandering? A state is a state is a state.

As I said it was not deliberately gerrymandered. But the mathematical effect is similar. I added some parenthetical words in red in the post above to explain. Read it again and think. Do I really have to show you the math?
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Re: Democrats have the deal sealed for November...

Postby Sandy » Sat Jul 21, 2018 10:56 am

I'm just looking at the polling data, which has put the Democrats consistently outside the margin of error on the up side since they started reporting on the November election. The "generic" data is usually a pretty good predictor, but if you start going down those head to head lists, you'll see Democrats in the lead in far more races than the "generic" poll would indicate, including in districts and states that have long been Republican territory. Many of them are within the margin of error, but many of those are in Red states and districts that Trump won in 2016. And over the past three months, the Democrat lead has been increasing.

I don't see that much has changed over the course of the past year, where Democrats have won a long string of special elections, and swept the off-year elections, capped by the unprecedented gains in Virginia, where they also generated a record turnout, the congressional district victory in a totally gerrymandered district in Pennsylvania, where they also got a record turnout, and the capper, the Senate race in Alabama, which they won on the strength of a sheer turnout of numbers in what some pundits call the third most Republican state in the country. The Democratic voter base, which is usually quiet during off year election cycles, is active, engaged, has raised more money nationally than either the Republicans, or than their own party did in 2016, is being kept active by Trump antics which keep happening on a regular basis, with two wonderful gifts this summer, including the border fiasco and Helsinki. And while the "endangered Democrats" in the senate all seem to be running comfortable campaigns, the GOP is having to kick money into Texas to buck up Ted Cruz, and into Nevada and Arizona. It's only July, goodness only knows what antics and gaffes Trump will come up with by November, and by then, the escalating trade war will have been a fire hose on economic growth. Unemployment is already ticking up in spite of job growth, two tenths of a percent last month, which the GOP would have screamed like banshees if Obama were still in office. So yeah, I'm optimistic.
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Re: Democrats have the deal sealed for November...

Postby KeithE » Sat Jul 21, 2018 11:06 am

Sandy wrote:I'm just looking at the polling data, which has put the Democrats consistently outside the margin of error on the up side since they started reporting on the November election. The "generic" data is usually a pretty good predictor, but if you start going down those head to head lists, you'll see Democrats in the lead in far more races than the "generic" poll would indicate, including in districts and states that have long been Republican territory. Many of them are within the margin of error, but many of those are in Red states and districts that Trump won in 2016. And over the past three months, the Democrat lead has been increasing.

I don't see that much has changed over the course of the past year, where Democrats have won a long string of special elections, and swept the off-year elections, capped by the unprecedented gains in Virginia, where they also generated a record turnout, the congressional district victory in a totally gerrymandered district in Pennsylvania, where they also got a record turnout, and the capper, the Senate race in Alabama, which they won on the strength of a sheer turnout of numbers in what some pundits call the third most Republican state in the country. The Democratic voter base, which is usually quiet during off year election cycles, is active, engaged, has raised more money nationally than either the Republicans, or than their own party did in 2016, is being kept active by Trump antics which keep happening on a regular basis, with two wonderful gifts this summer, including the border fiasco and Helsinki. And while the "endangered Democrats" in the senate all seem to be running comfortable campaigns, the GOP is having to kick money into Texas to buck up Ted Cruz, and into Nevada and Arizona. It's only July, goodness only knows what antics and gaffes Trump will come up with by November, and by then, the escalating trade war will have been a fire hose on economic growth. Unemployment is already ticking up in spite of job growth, two tenths of a percent last month, which the GOP would have screamed like banshees if Obama were still in office. So yeah, I'm optimistic.

Just to let you know I’m checking, the unemployment rate did tick up .2% in June
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000 look at table.

Obama haters need to look at this unemployment rate graph.

Image

As for the generic poll, you have reason for optimism (or is it cheerleading) - a 9.3% lead. But a lot can change. Clinton was up by 6.6% as late as Oct 18, 2016. And the gerrymandering effect in state-drawn districts greatly favors the Repugnants.

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Re: Democrats have the deal sealed for November...

Postby KeithE » Sat Jul 21, 2018 12:06 pm

KeithE wrote:
William Thornton wrote:Work wid me here retired rocket scientist. Electoral college and gerrymandering? A state is a state is a state.

As I said it was not deliberately gerrymandered. But the mathematical effect is similar. I added some parenthetical words in red in the post above to explain. Read it again and think. Do I really have to show you the math?


No reply from William, yet. Does he understand yet?

I'm not lazy, so let me take some real results to show how well gerrymandering works (intentional or not). Let me take 4 states (CA, Mich,PA, FL) with real 2016 votes

State Clinton Votes Trump Votes EC votes
CA.......5,589,936........3,021,095.... 55
FL........4,485,745........4,605,515.....29
PA.......2,844,705........2,412,941.....20
Mich....2,268,293........2,279,845.....16


Total 17,933,810 12,319,346

That’s 59.3% for Clinton and 40.7% for Trump

Yet the Electoral college would have it 55 for Clinton and 65 for Trump

That’s 54.2% for Trump and 45.8% for Clinton.

Now do you see how this works??
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Re: Democrats have the deal sealed for November...

Postby William Thornton » Sat Jul 21, 2018 12:28 pm

KeithE wrote:
William Thornton wrote:Work wid me here retired rocket scientist. Electoral college and gerrymandering? A state is a state is a state.

As I said it was not deliberately gerrymandered. But the mathematical effect is similar. I added some parenthetical words in red in the post above to explain. Read it again and think. Do I really have to show you the math?


I'll stick with gerrymandering in the way the term is usually used.

Hil had plenty of people whose math enabled them to count to 270.
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Re: Democrats have the deal sealed for November...

Postby Sandy » Sat Jul 21, 2018 12:59 pm

KeithE wrote:As for the generic poll, you have reason for optimism (or is it cheerleading) - a 9.3% lead. But a lot can change. Clinton was up by 6.6% as late as Oct 18, 2016. And the gerrymandering effect in state-drawn districts greatly favors the Repugnants.


That 9.3% lead is growing, not getting smaller. And yes, there are still a lot of gerrymandered districts, but Democrats have picked up a few of those in special elections, in some cases without much expenditure of funds, or in others, as in Frank's old district in Arizona, set up a candidate to run in November with the party's blessinng and funding. Democrat Connor Lamb turned a gerrymandered district in Pennsylvania this spring, and the new district lines were drawn for November and put in place by the courts in April, which will likely yield at least five more flipped seats in PA, possibly six. Wisconsin also will have new district lines for November.

Here's another cause for optimism. Democrat Joe Manchin has a ten point lead in West Virginia, where Trump won by 42 points. He's supposedly the "most endangered" Democrat in the senate for November. His presence is also boosting Democrats in the three congressional districts there. And irony of ironies, Bernie Sanders has made a couple of appearances there, including at a public forum on health care deep in Coal Country, in McDowell County, and that has apparently boosted the Democrat running for congress from that district, Ojeda, who leads by either 2 according to Bloomberg, or 7 according to Monmouth.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -poll-says

There's some cheerleading, too, but I base my "prediction" on the numbers. And there is plenty of reason for optimism if you're a Democrat looking at those.
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Re: Democrats have the deal sealed for November...

Postby William Thornton » Sat Jul 21, 2018 2:35 pm

You are expanding the definition of gerrymandering to fit your data. If electoral boundaries are not being manipulated there's no gerrymandering. You could make your point without attempting that.

I'll stick with gerrymandering in the way the term is usually used.

But I would be interested to read any of the pundits who look at the electoral college and complain about gerrymandering.
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Re: Democrats have the deal sealed for November...

Postby KeithE » Sat Jul 21, 2018 3:52 pm

William Thornton wrote:You are expanding the definition of gerrymandering to fit your data. If electoral boundaries are not being manipulated there's no gerrymandering. You could make your point without attempting that.

I'll stick with gerrymandering in the way the term is usually used.

But I would be interested to read any of the pundits who look at the electoral college and complain about gerrymandering.

I said the EC had a unintentional gerrymandering effect (unintentional since the state lines were drawn many decades ago) where disliked political populations are grouped into one district while others districts are more in number and are grouped to barely win by small amounts. But you are too mathematically challenged (or obstinate) to see how the same math applies.

Whatever the word used, the EC way of counting helped Trump in 2016 and state-drawn district mapping by the Repugnants will help the Republicans in 2018 win more House seats. They also helped the GOP to get larger majorities in the House in 2016.

Analysis: Partisan gerrymandering has benefited Republicans more than Democrats

One quote, but read it all.
The AP analysis also found that Republicans won as many as 22 additional U.S. House seats over what would have been expected based on the average vote share in congressional districts across the country. That helped provide the GOP with a comfortable majority over Democrats instead of a narrow one.
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Re: Democrats have the deal sealed for November...

Postby KeithE » Sat Jul 21, 2018 4:16 pm

Sandy wrote:
KeithE wrote:As for the generic poll, you have reason for optimism (or is it cheerleading) - a 9.3% lead. But a lot can change. Clinton was up by 6.6% as late as Oct 18, 2016. And the gerrymandering effect in state-drawn districts greatly favors the Repugnants.


That 9.3% lead is growing, not getting smaller. And yes, there are still a lot of gerrymandered districts, but Democrats have picked up a few of those in special elections, in some cases without much expenditure of funds, or in others, as in Frank's old district in Arizona, set up a candidate to run in November with the party's blessinng and funding. Democrat Connor Lamb turned a gerrymandered district in Pennsylvania this spring, and the new district lines were drawn for November and put in place by the courts in April, which will likely yield at least five more flipped seats in PA, possibly six. Wisconsin also will have new district lines for November.

Here's another cause for optimism. Democrat Joe Manchin has a ten point lead in West Virginia, where Trump won by 42 points. He's supposedly the "most endangered" Democrat in the senate for November. His presence is also boosting Democrats in the three congressional districts there. And irony of ironies, Bernie Sanders has made a couple of appearances there, including at a public forum on health care deep in Coal Country, in McDowell County, and that has apparently boosted the Democrat running for congress from that district, Ojeda, who leads by either 2 according to Bloomberg, or 7 according to Monmouth.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -poll-says

There's some cheerleading, too, but I base my "prediction" on the numbers. And there is plenty of reason for optimism if you're a Democrat looking at those.


All good signs. And you are right that in the generic poll (Dems vs Reps) Dems support is increasing since mid-May (Immigrants and Helsinki?)

Image

I also see where true Progressives (e.g. Kevin de León and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) and beating up on older, less progressive Dems (Dianne Feinstein and Joe Crowley) in primaries. Not sure if that will help or hurt the Dems in Nov. The country may be moving leftward and against Trump but in my sense, where I live, it is far from accepting a Progressive agenda in any majority manner.

I think it will be interesting for all of us.
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Re: Democrats have the deal sealed for November...

Postby Haruo » Sat Jul 21, 2018 5:05 pm

William Thornton wrote:Work wid me here retired rocket scientist. Electoral college and gerrymandering? A state is a state is a state.

No, gerrymandering, if successful, turns what should be blue states if states were states into red states because districts are districts, states are just aggregates of districts. It's all part of the system that goes by the oversimplified moniker of "institutionalized racism".
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Re: Democrats have the deal sealed for November...

Postby Haruo » Sat Jul 21, 2018 5:07 pm

Haruo wrote:
William Thornton wrote:Work wid me here retired rocket scientist. Electoral college and gerrymandering? A state is a state is a state.

No, gerrymandering, if successful, turns what should be blue states if states were states into red states because districts are districts, states are just aggregates of districts. It's all part of the system that goes by the oversimplified moniker of "institutionalized racism".

But here I'm not talking about the Electoral College, but about the Congress. House of Representatives, specifically.
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Re: Democrats have the deal sealed for November...

Postby David Flick » Sun Jul 22, 2018 3:03 am

Sandy wrote:Hillary got three million more votes than Trump, who got help from the Russians.
    William Thornton wrote:Love these discussions.

    Even after the rigged primaries. S h e. L o s t.

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Re: Democrats have the deal sealed for November...

Postby KeithE » Sun Jul 22, 2018 8:14 am

David Flick wrote:
Sandy wrote:Hillary got three million more votes than Trump, who got help from the Russians.
    William Thornton wrote:Love these discussions.

    Even after the rigged primaries. S h e. L o s t.



BTW, Al Gore won the popular vote as well.

I have sympathy for any losing Presidential loser. They put a lot into it, whatever else you think. It is a bogey to think otherwise.

Did/do not like Hillary but your first list of 18 excuses was just a undocumented spoof. Your second “complete list” did give Hillary quotes, though unreferenced.

Al Gore would have been a good President, imo:
1. His Re-inventing Government program was a masterpiece (if it had been followed),
2. We would have been well ahead in alternative energy, and
3. The Iraqi War would not have happened, and more.

The Electoral College has caused much harm by curtailing true (majority of people rule) democracy. Time to reform the Electoral College as well as gerrymandering.

And just to irk David, it is more than time to shift entirely to alternative energy (or at least equalizing subsidies). Wind is cheaper than fossil fuels now. Solar will be cheaper by 2020. Biomass soon afterwards.
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Re: Democrats have the deal sealed for November...

Postby Sandy » Sun Jul 22, 2018 9:13 am

David Flick wrote:
Sandy wrote:Hillary got three million more votes than Trump, who got help from the Russians.
    William Thornton wrote:Love these discussions.

    Even after the rigged primaries. S h e. L o s t.



That's about as much bull corn and baloney cheese as your climate change tripe.

She lost because Trump got help from the Russians, and because James Comey released information about the email investigation that "there might be more" after concluding that she had done nothing illegal. And as it turned out, there was nothing else. Trump was being investigated at the same time, and no word of that came out until after the election. Wonder what kind of effect it would have had if the long list of his associates who have been indicted and are testifyiing in exchange for lighter sentences was known before November 2016?
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Re: Democrats have the deal sealed for November...

Postby David Flick » Mon Jul 23, 2018 12:53 am

Sandy wrote:Hillary got three million more votes than Trump, who got help from the Russians.
    William Thornton wrote:Love these discussions.

    Even after the rigged primaries. S h e. L o s t.
        KeithE wrote:
          BTW, Al Gore won the popular vote as well.

          I have sympathy for any losing Presidential loser. They put a lot into it, whatever else you think. It is a bogey to think otherwise.

          Did/do not like Hillary but your first list of 18 excuses was just a undocumented spoof. Your second “complete list” did give Hillary quotes, though unreferenced.

          Al Gore would have been a good President, imo:
          1. His Re-inventing Government program was a masterpiece (if it had been followed),
            Remind me again what the 9/11 conspiracy theories have to do with Al Gore's so-called "Re-inventing Government program". That's an entirely new one on me...
          2. We would have been well ahead in alternative energy, and
          3. The Iraqi War would not have happened, and more.

          The Electoral College has caused much harm by curtailing true (majority of people rule) democracy. Time to reform the Electoral College as well as gerrymandering.

          And just to irk David, it is more than time to shift entirely to alternative energy (or at least equalizing subsidies). Wind is cheaper than fossil fuels now. Solar will be cheaper by 2020. Biomass soon afterwards.
          Renewable Energy Will Be Consistently Cheaper Than Fossil Fuels By 2020
          IRENA study downloadable here.
            I'm not irked, Keith. Not at all. I am, however, rather amused by your uncanny ability to pass off propaganda as facts. Incidentally, what on earth does shifting entirely to alternative energy have to do with the topic of this discussion ("Democrats have the deal sealed for November...")?

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Re: Democrats have the deal sealed for November...

Postby Dave Roberts » Mon Jul 23, 2018 6:35 am

For what it is now worth, I live in the ultimate gerrymandered district. Virginia's Third Congressional District begins in Chesapeake, VA, in an effort to get predominantly African-American neighborhoods, goes west along the North Carolina Border for about 75 miles. Then its borders turn North encompassing three African-American majority cities (or parts of them: Emporia, Petersburg, and Hopewell. From there, the district runs into the beginnings of Richmond's southern suburbs in Chesterfield County. It's basically a district packed with a predominantly Democratic majority to insure the GOP at least two adjoining districts. If future elections aren't determined in such hijinks, I don't know what is.
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Re: Democrats have the deal sealed for November...

Postby KeithE » Mon Jul 23, 2018 7:10 am

David Flick wrote:
Sandy wrote:Hillary got three million more votes than Trump, who got help from the Russians.
    William Thornton wrote:Love these discussions.

    Even after the rigged primaries. S h e. L o s t.
        KeithE wrote:
          BTW, Al Gore won the popular vote as well.

          I have sympathy for any losing Presidential loser. They put a lot into it, whatever else you think. It is a bogey to think otherwise.

          Did/do not like Hillary but your first list of 18 excuses was just a undocumented spoof. Your second “complete list” did give Hillary quotes, though unreferenced.

          Al Gore would have been a good President, imo:
          1. His Re-inventing Government program was a masterpiece (if it had been followed),
            Remind me again what the 9/11 conspiracy theories have to do with Al Gore's so-called "Re-inventing Government program". That's an entirely new one on me...
          KeithE (in green) Sorry that was a mistaken link. Here is the intended link. Read it , it will be good for you.

          I was going to add a 4. reason as to why Gore would have been a better President than Bush (about why with Gore as President 9/11 would have most likely been thwarted) and I guess I had a link open that I mistakenly copied. But since you denigrated 9/11 truth as a "conspiracy theory", I will resurrect what I was gong to say in another post (I saved it as a .doc).


          2. We would have been well ahead in alternative energy, and
          3. The Iraqi War would not have happened, and more.

          The Electoral College has caused much harm by curtailing true (majority-of-people-rule) democracy. Time to reform the Electoral College as well as gerrymandering.

          And just to irk David, it is more than time to shift entirely to alternative energy (or at least equalizing subsidies). Wind is cheaper than fossil fuels now. Solar will be cheaper by 2020. Biomass soon afterwards.
          Renewable Energy Will Be Consistently Cheaper Than Fossil Fuels By 2020
          IRENA study downloadable here.
            I'm not irked, Keith. Not at all. I am, however, rather amused by your uncanny ability to pass off propaganda as facts.
            KeithE: just the opposite my friend. My DATA comes from scientific sources; your’s come from alt-right propaganda machines (e.g WUWT)

            Incidentally, what on earth does shifting entirely to alternative energy have to do with the topic of this discussion ("Democrats have the deal sealed for November...")?
            KeithE: You're the one who brought Al Gore up. He deserves respect not RW smearing. Educate yourself about the great cost reduction in alternative energy and natural gas and research the history of subsidies.
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Re: Democrats have the deal sealed for November...

Postby Tim Bonney » Mon Jul 23, 2018 9:42 am

Sandy wrote:Hillary got three million more votes than Trump, who got help from the Russians.


And help from James Comey too.
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Re: Democrats have the deal sealed for November...

Postby Sandy » Mon Jul 23, 2018 10:49 am

Dave Roberts wrote:For what it is now worth, I live in the ultimate gerrymandered district. Virginia's Third Congressional District begins in Chesapeake, VA, in an effort to get predominantly African-American neighborhoods, goes west along the North Carolina Border for about 75 miles. Then its borders turn North encompassing three African-American majority cities (or parts of them: Emporia, Petersburg, and Hopewell. From there, the district runs into the beginnings of Richmond's southern suburbs in Chesterfield County. It's basically a district packed with a predominantly Democratic majority to insure the GOP at least two adjoining districts. If future elections aren't determined in such hijinks, I don't know what is.


https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics ... ricts-2018

There wasn't anything that badly contorted in Pennsylvania, though as you got closer to Philadelphia, there were a lot of twists and turns to avoid putting a majority of Democrats in several marginal districts. The estimate "by the numbers" is that the Dems will likely pick up five new seats in PA alone. But the "by the numbers" predictions didn't take into account the fact that the Democrats turned one of the more deeply red and heavily gerrymandered districts on the old map, the 18th where Connor Lamb defeated an experienced, well known, and deeply conservative, Trump-flag waving Republican who outspent him 2 to 1 in a district Trump won by 24 points in 2016. The turnout in the special election topped 2016, and "by the numbers" it was a district the GOP should have easily won. There's only one of the newly drawn districts that had a higher percentage of Trump voters in 2016. Since the new lines were drawn, Lamb is running against an incumbent, Rothfus, in the 17th, and has a sizeable lead.

I moved to a state where there's not a senate race, so I won't get to help with that effort, and into a congressional district where Clinton picked up close to 70% of the vote. I don't think the Democrat in this district has a GOP opponent. The only "race" in Illinois will be for governor, and the Dem right now is running about 20 points ahead of the incumbent Republican. If you look at the map, around Chicago, Illinois looks somewhat gerrymandered, and there are a couple of districts with higher populations than the current ratio, and with high percentages of Democrat voters, but since areas that have larger GOP registrations are further out, It would be hard to make nicer geographic boundaries.

https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/IL#map
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Re: Democrats have the deal sealed for November...

Postby Sandy » Mon Jul 23, 2018 11:14 am

William Thornton wrote:Hil had plenty of people whose math enabled them to count to 270.


Sure she did. But they weren't counting on having to campaign against foreign interference, hacked voting machines and the FBI director deciding to disclose her investigation and keep her opponents' quiet.
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