Tax bill. What tax bill?

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Tax bill. What tax bill?

Postby William Thornton » Fri Dec 22, 2017 6:15 am

Judging from my mod/lib friends' silence nothing happened this week.

Reliable Dem Sandy said : I'm not so much concerned about being plunged into hell, as I am being plunged into recession, which is what every Republican tax cut trickle down bill like this has done over the past fifty years. This one just has more extreme numbers. I hope that doesn't mean a more extreme recession.

Trump says the opposite.

At least the scenario is set. Either we will have vigorous GDP growth or not. Credit or blame assigned accordingly. Dems are heavily invested in economic failure, lest trump be seen as succeeding.

After listening to pelosi/schumer who promise Armageddon, I just hope to survive 2017.
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Re: Tax bill. What tax bill?

Postby Sandy » Fri Dec 22, 2017 9:23 am

Trump is a pathological liar. I think that says about all that is necessary when it comes to all the rhetoric. The corruption that has been his lifetime trademark has been brought into the government. I think that's really all that needs to be said.
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Re: Tax bill. What tax bill?

Postby William Thornton » Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:15 am

Sandy wrote:Trump is a pathological liar. I think that says about all that is necessary when it comes to all the rhetoric. The corruption that has been his lifetime trademark has been brought into the government. I think that's really all that needs to be said.


Let the ihatetrump stuff continue unabated. Proof will be in economic growth or lack thereof. We will see.
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Re: Tax bill. What tax bill?

Postby Rvaughn » Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:32 am

William Thornton wrote:Let the ihatetrump stuff continue unabated. Proof will be in economic growth or lack thereof. We will see.
Yes, the proof will be in the pudding, all right and left rhetoric notwithstanding. From what I have read and understand, we individuals will not see an effect on our personal tax filing until 2018 (assuming we survive that long!).
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Re: Tax bill. What tax bill?

Postby Sandy » Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:34 am

William Thornton wrote:
Sandy wrote:Trump is a pathological liar. I think that says about all that is necessary when it comes to all the rhetoric. The corruption that has been his lifetime trademark has been brought into the government. I think that's really all that needs to be said.


Let the ihatetrump stuff continue unabated. Proof will be in economic growth or lack thereof. We will see.


Uh huh. I think we are already seeing. As conservative pundits, experts and politicians have asserted for decades, no government economic policy creates the circumstances for economic growth. I understand that decades upon decades of conservative economic policy failure has caused this massive shift toward thinking that if the government goes an additional 1.5 trillion into debt, it will result in economic growth. We've had record economic growth under Obama, that has continued up until now, because the liar and buffoon hasn't changed anything of significance. So yeah, we will see.

There are some aspects of all of this where I kind of like what I am seeing. The desperation of the Trump administration as they pump out story after story to attempt to get the media to chase rabbits while Mueller closes in on the White House is a good show. Trump might as well just say "I'm guilty" as to put out the ridiculous crap that credible news sources are able to dispel and diffuse in a couple of hours of googling. Special elections have become fountains of good cheer for Democrats, setting records in turnout and winning state house seats and confirming the old addage that the only way Republicans can win elections is by low turnout and gerrymandering.

We will see, indeed. :wink:
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Re: Tax bill. What tax bill?

Postby William Thornton » Fri Dec 22, 2017 12:22 pm

Hey, dems can get elected and undo it if it needs undoing.
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Re: Tax bill. What tax bill?

Postby Sandy » Fri Dec 22, 2017 12:41 pm

William Thornton wrote:Hey, dems can get elected and undo it if it needs undoing.


Looks like they can, and most likely will.
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Re: Tax bill. What tax bill?

Postby KeithE » Fri Dec 22, 2017 12:46 pm

Rvaughn wrote:
William Thornton wrote:Let the ihatetrump stuff continue unabated. Proof will be in economic growth or lack thereof. We will see.
Yes, the proof will be in the pudding, all right and left rhetoric notwithstanding. From what I have read and understand, we individuals will not see an effect on our personal tax filing until 2018 (assuming we survive that long!).

I’ll have much more to say, but here I will clarify what rvaughn has said in red above.

The effects we will see should be finalized by April 15, 2019 (for most of us that do not request an extension). We will see some effects on our withholding beginning possibly as early as Feb 2018 pay checks. But first they must re-invent our W-2’s and the system that calculates the new withholding rates.

This may be my cynicism but I will check to see if there is a nod to the Republicans congressional incumbents by making those withholding smaller than they should be to help in Nov 2018 elections with corresponding larger than expected tax due come April 2019.

I also find it curious why the individuals tax cuts become tax hikes for almost all people in 2025, year after the next Presidential election.

Much more later whether you like it or not!
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Re: Tax bill. What tax bill?

Postby William Thornton » Fri Dec 22, 2017 12:48 pm

I made a note. We'll see. Nothing wrong with trash talking way ahead of any vote.
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Re: Tax bill. What tax bill?

Postby Sandy » Fri Dec 22, 2017 2:02 pm

You should probably include this in your note, William. It's a much bigger deal than the tax reform bill.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/12 ... ot-closing
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Re: Tax bill. What tax bill?

Postby William Thornton » Fri Dec 22, 2017 3:35 pm

Yeah...like we don't know that dems plan for the future doesn include anything beyond impeachment. Keep tilting...
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Re: Tax bill. What tax bill?

Postby KeithE » Fri Dec 22, 2017 5:25 pm

William Thornton wrote:I made a note. We'll see. Nothing wrong with trash talking way ahead of any vote.

If this was meant for me, you really do not understand me very well. I was not trash talk about the “vote” (I assume you mean Nov 2018 congressional election). I was saying the Repubs may play a game of subtracting from the withholding most people pay next year (making it seem like a larger tax cut by the Nv 2018 elections)) only to have a larger than expected tax bill come April 15, 2019. I will be checking.

Keith said:
This may be my cynicism but I will check to see if there is a nod to the Republicans congressional incumbents by making those withholding smaller than they should be to help in Nov 2018 elections with corresponding larger than expected tax due come April 2019.


But maybe I don’t understand you. So let me ask - What specifically did I say that was trash talking about? Quote it specifically, please.

I don’t really care that much but it shows your misunderstanding of my words - not for the first time.
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Re: Tax bill. What tax bill?

Postby William Thornton » Fri Dec 22, 2017 6:01 pm

KeithE wrote:
William Thornton wrote:I made a note. We'll see. Nothing wrong with trash talking way ahead of any vote.

If this was meant for me, you really do not understand me very well. I was not trash talk about the “vote” (I assume you mean Nov 2018 congressional election). I was saying the Repubs may play a game of subtracting from the withholding most people pay next year (making it seem like a larger tax cut by the Nv 2018 elections)) only to have a larger than expected tax bill come April 15, 2019. I will be checking.

Keith said:
This may be my cynicism but I will check to see if there is a nod to the Republicans congressional incumbents by making those withholding smaller than they should be to help in Nov 2018 elections with corresponding larger than expected tax due come April 2019.


But maybe I don’t understand you. So let me ask - What specifically did I say that was trash talking about? Quote it specifically, please.

I don’t really care that much but it shows your misunderstanding of my words - not for the first time.


Not you, bro. and don't be so sensitive. Sandy does a lot of political trash talking...not that there's anything wrong with that. I do a bit myself.
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Re: Tax bill. What tax bill?

Postby Rvaughn » Fri Dec 22, 2017 8:21 pm

KeithE wrote:I’ll have much more to say, but here I will clarify what rvaughn has said in red above.

The effects we will see should be finalized by April 15, 2019 (for most of us that do not request an extension). We will see some effects on our withholding beginning possibly as early as Feb 2018 pay checks. But first they must re-invent our W-2’s and the system that calculates the new withholding rates.
Keith, thanks for clarifying my vague comment. I did mean what I think you are saying -- not that it will affect our April 2018 filing, but will affect the year 2018 so that it will affect our April 2019 filing.

Thanks.
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Re: Tax bill. What tax bill?

Postby Haruo » Sun Dec 24, 2017 9:25 am

I think this AP fact check does a pretty good job of debunking both sides' descriptions of the bill.
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Re: Tax bill. What tax bill?

Postby Dave Roberts » Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:02 am

My favorite response to this was a picture from the old Peanuts cartoons of Lucy holding the football for Charlie Brown. The caption was, "Come on, Charlie Brown. You know trickle-down works."
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Re: Tax bill. What tax bill?

Postby KeithE » Tue Dec 26, 2017 2:05 pm

Haruo wrote:I think this AP fact check does a pretty good job of debunking both sides' descriptions of the bill.

This article does a “pretty good” job of discussing the bill. It is true that most people including low and middle incomers get a tax cut (as the Trump/GOP says). It is also true that although they added an (unrelated to taxes) attack on ObamaCare by repealing the Individual Mandate, that does not end ObamaCare (as Trump claimed), just hurts it by a likely increase in insurance rates (~10%) and will result in an estimated 13 million losing coverage. This article makes these true statements.

But I’d like to point out how it soft pedals the distributional aspects of those individual tax cuts. Here’s how the article chooses to describe the distribution of tax cuts - by percentage gain to after-tax income income (in other words what sort of % raise one might get).

The nonpartisan Tax Policy Center estimates the biggest benefit of the new law will go to households making $308,000 to $733,000. Households making over that should get a tax cut worth 3.4 percent of their after-tax income. For the richest 0.1 percent (making over $3.4 million), the tax cut should be worth 2.7 percent of their after-tax income. For middle-income earners: 1.6 percent, the center estimates.


Does not sound too bad distributionally. But let’s look at actual $$ amounts.

The middle incomers ($35,000 -$99,999/yr) get a tax cut of $560 - $1600/yr. (1.6%)

Upper Upper class ($308,000 to $733,000/yr) get a tax cut of $10,472 - $24,922/yr. (3.4%)

Top 0.1% (>$3,400,000/yr) get a tax cut of >$91,800/yr. (2.7%)

BTW, I worked out what my tax break would be if I have the same income/deductions on my 2018 tax return as my 2016 tax return. It works out to a tax break of $226 in 2018.

Both years are entirely post retirement (I retired in Aug 2014). The primary reason why I do not get much is that they are doing away with “personal exemptions” ($8300 for my case - just two of us). The increased std deduction ($24K up from approx $12K for a family of two) sounds good but has to be taken with a grain of salt in that there is a loss in personal exemptions of ~$8K (for couples with no children) and if you are itemizers with over $24,000 in deductions (as we are), you are down $8300 in deductions+exemptions. Those in CA, NY, NJ, MA,CT (high tax states) are usually itemizers with over $24K in deductions in just SALT taxes and that is why they are the big losers in this tax bill (political intent??). That also hurts us compared to others (but I’m fine with that since my nest egg is primarily in stock and that should do well in the short term due to this bill's big tax cuts for businesses).
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Re: Tax bill. What tax bill?

Postby Jon Estes » Thu Dec 28, 2017 7:04 am

Some will be happy - some will be mad.

Fact is though, it is now passed and we will survive. If we could survive the past eight years, we will find it easier the next 7.
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Re: Tax bill. What tax bill?

Postby KeithE » Thu Dec 28, 2017 11:30 am

Just for grins I worked out what an average income tax break would be if that tax break were made equal across all filers.

We have about 145 million tax returns filed each year. Source IRS.

The new tax cut bill cuts revenues by about $330B due to individuals out of the approximately $1.5T taxes (most often rest go to businesses). Source: the conservative Tax Foundation about an earlier version of this bill (close as I could find but probably fairly accurate).

So that means $330B/145M = $2,276 tax cut could be given to each tax return across the incomes.

If this were truly only a “massive tax cut targeted for the middle” quintile (as Trump often trumpets), all middle class would get $11,379 cut.

And if it were to cut out all upper quintile income earners from receiving any tax cut ("stick it to the rich” approach of liberals), each in the bottom 80% would get $2845 cut.

As for the great economic benefits that the right wing says will result, I again give you a poll of 42 Economic experts. (Question A) Only one agrees that our GDP will grow substantially as a result of this bill within 10 year (that is extraordinarily statement since the usually goes up).
(Question B) All 42 economist thinks our debt/GDP ratio will grow within 10 years.
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Re: Tax bill. What tax bill?

Postby KeithE » Fri Dec 29, 2017 10:00 am

Jon Estes wrote: Fact is though, it is now passed and we will survive.


Survive we will, but the perceptive people will know our inequality has just got worse and will go to the polls in Nov 2018.

"Democracy deserves an attentiveness, especially now” - good line I just heard on Morning Joe.
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Re: Tax bill. What tax bill?

Postby Sandy » Fri Dec 29, 2017 12:10 pm

Yeah, surviving these last eight years was tough, with unemployment dropping by record numbers, record setting economic growth and what most credible economists would call a complete recovery from the Republican Bush Recession. Any evaluation of the Obama administration as anything but successful in every way is ignorance of facts or a biased lie. If you expect perfection, you're always disappointed, but if your politics are so narrow and single minded as to prevent seeing reality you are just lying to yourself. We've replaced an administration that proved itself to be one of integrity and competence with a group of criminals, cheaters, liars and self-serving bureaucrats that are hard to distinguish from the inmates of an asylum for the critically insane.

Watching the number of people rush to tax offices to get property taxes paid early, to get the deductions that have been capped or cut, seems similar to the bank runs that occurred prior to and during the depression. In spite of the administration's rhetoric, people who keep up with financial data are speaking with their feet, and saying loud and clear that this is exactly what it has been pegged, a tax cut for the wealthy, and a tax increase for the middle class, a Robin Hood plan in reverse.
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Re: Tax bill. What tax bill?

Postby Haruo » Fri Dec 29, 2017 7:01 pm

Intriguing to see Rubio saying that although the tax bill is an improvement over the previous situation, he (a) thinks it's way too generous to corporations and (b) doesn't think it'll be all that good for employment growth.
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Re: Tax bill. What tax bill?

Postby KeithE » Fri Dec 29, 2017 7:48 pm

Haruo wrote:Intriguing to see Rubio saying that although the tax bill is an improvement over the previous situation, he (a) thinks it's way too generous to corporations and (b) doesn't think it'll be all that good for employment growth.

So where does he (Rubio) think the “improvement” will come from? Wage growth? National debt reduction? Repatriation dollars? Next legislative effort - like Ryan’s hoped-for entitlement reform?, more immigration bans? infrastructure funding?

Perhaps your source for (a) or (b) above would provide that area on improvement Rubio is thinking about - if he is thinking ahead at all. Could you supply that source?
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Re: Tax bill. What tax bill?

Postby Haruo » Fri Dec 29, 2017 9:00 pm

Sorry, it was just a radio news story that I randomly heard while driving, on KOMO (ABC affiliate in Seattle). I was paying more attention to the road than to the radio, but I don't think there were many more details nor a further source cited.
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Re: Tax bill. What tax bill?

Postby Tim Bonney » Sat Dec 30, 2017 4:06 am

William Thornton wrote:Trump says the opposite.



Trump says he has signed more laws than any other President. :lol: If I had a nickel for every time Trump said something false, now THAT would be a real financial boon!
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