Fox buddy Killian and Roy Moore

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Re: Fox buddy Killian and Roy Moore

Postby Sandy » Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:56 am

Rvaughn wrote:While this can be considered a disaster for Republicans, I think seeing this as a huge repudiation of Trump is probably wishful thinking.


That isn't what the exit polling data, which was fairly extensive, showed. Approval and support for Trump in Alabama has fallen below 50%. The NBC data showed his approval at 48%, and disapproval at 48%, down from 65-35 last November, and according to the WAPO's exit data, 87% of those who voted for Jones disapproved of Trump, while those who approved of Trump and voted for Moore was almost a dozen points less. If this election had happened in Pennsylvania, where Trump won in November by a fraction of a percent, or Michigan or Wisconsin, then it might be harder to say that a 25% gain by Democrats in a statewide election was candidate based. But this is Alabama. And it comes on the heels of four other special congressional elections where Democrats lost by narrow, single digit percentages, in one case less than a percent, in deep red districts in deep red states, plus the massive gains in vote totals and seats held in Virginia. It is definitely a repudiation.

Turnout was a major factor. The Democrats got vote totals approaching presidential election years in many counties, while the rural counties were below mid-term levels. Republicans were obviously not excited about Moore, and his unpopularity, combined with that of Trump, was a motivator for Democrats, though a clear majority of them supported Jones because they liked him. But would the Republicans have been any more excited about Strange? Don't think so, given how badly he lost in the primary. He was also a pariah of sorts, not his fault, but because of his connection to the former governor who fell from the grace of Alabama Republicans because of his adulterous relationships. That means that there have to be at least a few white, Anglo Saxon, Protestant, Southern Baptists in Alabama for whom character in a candidate is important enough to affect their vote. Not too many, as it turns out, but some.
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Re: Fox buddy Killian and Roy Moore

Postby Rvaughn » Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:31 am

We'll just have to be satisfied with our own satisfaction. Regardless of what Alabamians think of Trump, I don't believe Roy Moore without the teenage girl scandal would have lost this election.
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Re: Fox buddy Killian and Roy Moore

Postby Sandy » Wed Dec 13, 2017 12:32 pm

Rvaughn wrote:We'll just have to be satisfied with our own satisfaction. Regardless of what Alabamians think of Trump, I don't believe Roy Moore without the teenage girl scandal would have lost this election.


I wouldn't have bet on that. The polls indicated a tight race from the start, and the Democrats organized a ground game that drove the vote. If Moore's scandal hadn't been a factor, the turnout the Dems got would still have made this winnable for them.

The irony of this has not been lost from a political perspective. The elements of the political and religious "left" in Alabama united around Doug Jones, who was not only a very decent candidate with a strong resume, including high profile service in the civil rights cause in a state notorious for its resistance to the removal of the evil of racist oppression and violence, but also a professing Christian with a law degree from a Southern Baptist university, and a genuine record of involvement and service through the ministry of his local Methodist church. They, not the loud, racous, "Christian" Right, have rescued Alabama from a reputation for political backwardness and moral hypocrisy.
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I will blog soon

Postby Stephen Fox » Wed Dec 13, 2017 6:26 pm

Was close to being on air this morning on NPR 1a program. Morning Joe the Baptist from Pensacola and U Bama with Mika was live from Mtn Brook yesterday. The Pants brigade of Opelika Auburn many of them Episcopalian women with Baptist educations were a force in Lee County spotlighted on MSNBC and I guess some of you saw the RNS story on BCOC.net

The two jewels for me were Wayne Flynt on Harper Lee and Bama Values

http://www.al.com/opinion/index.ssf/201 ... alaba.html

And Randall Balmer on Moore as a "con artist" Nov 19 in Wash Post.

A caller on the Rick and Bubba show last week exposed keynote Bama SBC speaker Rick Burgess ignorance. He did not know who George W. Truett was.

And FBC Gardendale's Scott Beason was named on NPR This American Life hr long radio doc on Albertville Alabama and Immigration.

On Morn Joe UMC pastor's son John Archibald, al.com columnist said Tuesday was biggest election since Brewer and Wallace in 1970.

So America mighta learned something about it self yesterday in Bama.

Stave Bannon was sent running back to whatever landfill he came from and that was a sweet Day in Jesus for sure.
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Balmer on Moore and Slippery Slope in LA Times

Postby Stephen Fox » Wed Dec 13, 2017 7:37 pm

Pretty strong.
http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la ... story.html

Pressler and Criswell and Helms talked about the slippery slope and they were the slipperiest of all

And of course Adrian Rogers who slid on the slope all the way to Steve Gaines, Scott Beason and the alt right and an ignoramus of a devotee Rick Burgess who keynotes for the BAMA SBC and has no clue who George W. Truett was

My goodness. No wonder Roy Moore got so close.
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Re: Fox buddy Killian and Roy Moore

Postby Sandy » Wed Dec 13, 2017 8:09 pm

Worth reading. Quite a piece there by Balmer, actually. He nailed it. Resonates with me.
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Re: Fox buddy Killian and Roy Moore

Postby Rvaughn » Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:48 pm

Comment from an Alabama friend who supported Jones:
We would be wrong to count the Jones election as a political win, this was a morality statement on the part of the people of this state. Moore represented something that most people reject; we hope that Jones will serve with honor and bring the sides closer together.
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Re: Fox buddy Killian and Roy Moore

Postby Sandy » Thu Dec 14, 2017 7:40 am

If this were just an isolated incident in Alabama, maybe I'd agree. But this has been a trend that has developed in a number of red states, in special elections from state legislatures to congressional seats. Jones benefitted more from the turnout of African Americans and voters between 18 and 45 than from any fallout from Moore's past behavior. His campaign used the Obama playbook, knocking on over 300,000 doors and making over a million phone calls, but they were boosted by the outsized presence of Steve Bannon, who probably did as much to drive African American turnout as anyone. Their numbers soared, in spite of voter suppression (I hear the photo ID business in Alabama has been booming) they constituted 30% of the electorate, and Jones won them by over 90%. Younger voters also came out in relatively high numbers for an off year election, as did the college educated suburbanites, and Jones won Madison County, with its high tech, high educated population, and Tuscaloosa and Lee Counties, home of the University of Alabama and Auburn University respectively, by almost identical 57-42 margins.
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Re: Fox buddy Killian and Roy Moore

Postby William Thornton » Thu Dec 14, 2017 8:44 am

My old friend Sandy can be so astute and informed on so many things...until his wheels fall off and he runs off a cliff and ends up deep in fansasy land...and pardon my mixed metaphors.

Doug Jones didn't have a snowball's chance in a 1940s Birmingham blast furnace until it came out that old Roy liked to date high school girls and, when called on it, failed to credibly and truthfully address the problem. After these things came out the already flawed candidate (sacked, twice from the Alabama Supreme Court; funny financial relationship with his 'ministry', etc.) practically disappeared except for appearance at tiny rural churches. In the heat of the final days, he inexplicably left the state.

No sentient person believes Doug Jones had a chance against any Republican except the worst possible candidate, Roy Moore. Even with the power of incumbency, I doubt many people think Jones will retain his seat in 2020 unless he switches parties or turns out to be a reliable Republican vote on critical issues.

But, hey, opinions are free and harmless.
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Re: Fox buddy Killian and Roy Moore

Postby KeithE » Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:40 am

William Thornton wrote:My old friend Sandy can be so astute and informed on so many things...until his wheels fall off and he runs off a cliff and ends up deep in fansasy land...and pardon my mixed metaphors.

Doug Jones didn't have a snowball's chance in a 1940s Birmingham blast furnace until it came out that old Roy liked to date high school girls and, when called on it, failed to credibly and truthfully address the problem. After these things came out the already flawed candidate (sacked, twice from the Alabama Supreme Court; funny financial relationship with his 'ministry', etc.) practically disappeared except for appearance at tiny rural churches. In the heat of the final days, he inexplicably left the state.

No sentient person believes Doug Jones had a chance against any Republican except the worst possible candidate, Roy Moore. Even with the power of incumbency, I doubt many people think Jones will retain his seat in 2020 unless he switches parties or turns out to be a reliable Republican vote on critical issues.

But, hey, opinions are free and harmless.


Love your allusion in red above. And I agree that if the allegations had not happened, Moore most likely would have been elected.

But at the same time one cannot ignore the rising democratic tide in AL, Virginia and across the country, voters are 48.2% for Dems, 37.2% Repubs. Even in Georgia, Handel beat Ossoff (51.8% / 48.2%) in 2017 while in 2014 Tom Price took 66.7% in 2014, 61.7% in 2016. Dems are rising even in the red clay of Georgia. Sorry not as clever on the allusions.

Trump's approval rating of 32-35% no doubt pays a big role min this rising democratic sentiments; I suspect the very unpopular tax plan also plays a big role - read 29% favor GOP tax plan
A Quinnipiac poll found that just 29 percent of voters approve of the plan, while 53 percent disapprove.
Similarly, a Gallup poll showed 29 percent of Americans favoring the tax cut and 56 percent disapproving.

Not conclusive at all but I'll document here some of my personal observations here in Huntsville:

1) I "poll watched" for Jones in a poor neighborhood in Huntsville near a Redstone Arsenal entrance from 3:30 - 6:30pm (left to go the the Messiah Sing Along). I parked where I could see the entrance. The largest demographic was young single black women. They walked in with great purpose - just my observation. There was one guy taken a movie of me (3 or 4 times) - don’t know why. Overall I would guess about 1/2 white (mainly older and disheveled) and 1/2 black voters, but I did not count. I do not know the composition of the neighborhood. My son went back there at about 7:30 to get the voted final count and report that to the Huntsville Jones headquarters - it was 2:1 in favor of Jones.

2) I have not heard one person say they voted against Moore due to the allegations. All have said their minds were made up long before those allegations. But I do not doubt that a few percentage points were changed and that would have made a difference.

3) All those (6 people I recall right now) who told me they were going vote for Moore or told me they did vote for Moore, said they did so for one reason - abortion.

1.7% write-ins votes - 22,811 were given (urged on by Sen Shelby) and if all of those votes would have chosen Moore, then Moore would have won. Jones won by 20,715.

But note that the vote still has not been “certified” and Moore has not conceded.
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Re: Fox buddy Killian and Roy Moore

Postby William Thornton » Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:58 am

The old blast furnace museum in Bham is very interesting. I think I was the only person when I visited there a few years ago.
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Re: Fox buddy Killian and Roy Moore

Postby Sandy » Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:53 pm

William Thornton wrote:My old friend Sandy can be so astute and informed on so many things...until his wheels fall off and he runs off a cliff and ends up deep in fansasy land...and pardon my mixed metaphors.

Doug Jones didn't have a snowball's chance in a 1940s Birmingham blast furnace until it came out that old Roy liked to date high school girls and, when called on it, failed to credibly and truthfully address the problem. After these things came out the already flawed candidate (sacked, twice from the Alabama Supreme Court; funny financial relationship with his 'ministry', etc.) practically disappeared except for appearance at tiny rural churches. In the heat of the final days, he inexplicably left the state.

No sentient person believes Doug Jones had a chance against any Republican except the worst possible candidate, Roy Moore. Even with the power of incumbency, I doubt many people think Jones will retain his seat in 2020 unless he switches parties or turns out to be a reliable Republican vote on critical issues.

But, hey, opinions are free and harmless.


:lol:

Yes, they are. Mine, however, is clearly not unique.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-co ... -roy-moore

To each his own. I think the numbers and turnout point to Steve Bannon and Donald Trump motivating African Americans and under 40's to go vote that made the difference.
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Re: Fox buddy Killian and Roy Moore

Postby Rvaughn » Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:29 pm

A different view of the Alabama voter turnout:
The big story from Alabama’s senatorial election is the absence of evangelical voters
As David French has observed, that means that about 350,000 fewer evangelicals turned out for this election than turned-out in previous elections. That is more than the difference in this election. The evangelical absence from this election more than accounts for Doug Jones’ margin of victory.
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Re: Fox buddy Killian and Roy Moore

Postby Sandy » Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:59 pm

That looks a lot more like an apologetic defense of evangelicals in Alabama than it does a factual analysis of the vote. They are trying very hard to avoid having to own support for Roy Moore, but there's a big problem with that. Too many of them showed up on camera and echoed Trump's words, that because Jones was a liberal, left wing baby killer (he's not but that's the rhetoric anyway) Moore's character didn't matter and it was better to have him than the alternative. Moore is a Southern Baptist, and thus, an evangelical by denominational identification. Lacking any real stand up opposition to him in Alabama by Baptist leadership, I tend to look at Mohler's figures as wishful thinking. An organized, high profile effort to either discourage evangelicals from going to the polls, or to openly support the other side because he was a better moral choice than Moore would have cone a long ward to help out.
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Re: Fox buddy Killian and Roy Moore

Postby Haruo » Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:00 pm

Rvaughn wrote:A different view of the Alabama voter turnout:
The big story from Alabama’s senatorial election is the absence of evangelical voters
As David French has observed, that means that about 350,000 fewer evangelicals turned out for this election than turned-out in previous elections. That is more than the difference in this election. The evangelical absence from this election more than accounts for Doug Jones’ margin of victory.

Yeah, I'm sure it's a combination of blacks voting for Jones and whites who previously would have voted for Moore not voting for anybody. Probably some black evangelicals caught up in that white generalization, too. The media tend to be eager to rush to explain everything simplistically (and with a bias). Easier to understand that way, but not necessarily entirely correct (even if it half correct).
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Re: Fox buddy Killian and Roy Moore

Postby Sandy » Thu Dec 14, 2017 6:18 pm

The difference in the percentage of evangelical voters in this election, 44%, compared to 47% in 2016 is due to the smaller turnout overall, and the higher percentage of African Americans who showed up. Moore got 80% of the white evangelical vote, virtually equal to the percentage Trump got in 2016, and the only reason for the difference in the total number is the smaller turnout. With the increases seen in African American voters, and the overall Democratic turnout, it is hard to make the argument that a drop in evangelical support was the reason Moore lost. It was a turnout driven election, and the exit poll numbers from the Washington Post show that the Democrats increased their odds of winning by turning out more of their constituency than the Republicans did. And if you look at the reasons, more people cited opposition to Trump as a factor than the accusations against Moore.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics ... 31b1e121aa

Take a look at independent voters. There's Jones' margin. He got 51% of the independent vote. Given the percentage of independents who voted, that accounts for the difference in vote totals.
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Re: Fox buddy Killian and Roy Moore

Postby Rvaughn » Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:31 pm

Haruo wrote:Yeah, I'm sure it's a combination of blacks voting for Jones and whites who previously would have voted for Moore not voting for anybody. Probably some black evangelicals caught up in that white generalization, too. The media tend to be eager to rush to explain everything simplistically (and with a bias). Easier to understand that way, but not necessarily entirely correct (even if it's half correct).
I suspect you are right that we are looking at the converging of numerous factors that is not as easy to understand or explain in a simplistic rush to be first to explain it.
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Re: Fox buddy Killian and Roy Moore

Postby Sandy » Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:25 pm

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/act ... 71dc67d990

This also ran in the Baptist Standard.

Collin Hansen of the Gospel Coalition wrote:“You could preach almost any Trinitarian heresy and not one person is going to notice it,” Hansen said. “If you touch on the political things on things they care about like gun control or racism, they’ll have your head.”
Recent political changes, Hansen said, have exposed “the moral and theological rot” in the evangelical church. “There will not be a coherent evangelical movement to emerge from this political season,”


Editor of Christianity Today wrote:No one will believe a word we say, perhaps for a generation. Christianity’s integrity is severely tarnished.


Some excellent points.
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Roy said it aint over

Postby Stephen Fox » Thu Dec 28, 2017 5:03 pm

But John Merrill certified it this afternoon

The story continues in Bama
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Re: Fox buddy Killian and Roy Moore

Postby Sandy » Fri Dec 29, 2017 12:29 am

Certified today. Jones goes to Washington in January. The continued lie from the right of 'massive voter fraud" is once again proven to be nothing more than a diversionary tactic.
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Re: Fox buddy Killian and Roy Moore

Postby KeithE » Fri Dec 29, 2017 9:48 am

Moore should ride off into the sunset on his horse (or is it "on his ass”). But with an audience (the religious right) I suspect he’ll keep crowing.
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