Fox buddy Killian and Roy Moore

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Re: Fox buddy Killian and Roy Moore

Postby Sandy » Wed Nov 29, 2017 12:20 pm

Rvaughn wrote:The Change Research Poll, referenced at 538, had flipped for Jones, but now has flipped back to Moore:
https://medium.com/@ChngRsrch/jones-holds-3-point-lead-in-alabama-following-7-point-shift-since-sunday-c6db133e4522
https://medium.com/@ChngRsrch/moore-opens-up-49-44-lead-in-alabama-just-9-of-trump-voters-believe-allegations-against-moore-6d74baa84a68
What has changed? The largest difference is turnout: many Republicans who ten days ago said they might not vote, now say they plan to show up on Election Day and vote for Moore.


In an off mid-term election, in December, turnout will exactly be the key. And it may very well be whether enough Republicans are disgusted with Moore enough to stay home, or whether all of the hubub is enough to motivate them to turn out. Chris Hayes on MSNBC pointed out that the Democrats in Alabama are seeing signs that turnout for their party might hit record numbers. With all the publicity this has received, I don't think turnout will be a problem. But Hayes also pointed to daily tracking numbers which show Jones increasing his totals daily, and Moore's numbers dropping. I don't know a lot of people from Alabama, most of the ones I know are church leaders and pastors connected with some of the mission projects I've done in the summers over the past two decades, and I don't think there is a Moore supporter among the ones I have contact with, or see on social media, but most of them wouldn't have been before this all broke, either. They're people with grad school or college degrees, in fields like nursing, several pastors, a couple of teachers, one college professor, a couple of NASA employees, so I don't know if they're typical Alabama voters, or whether folks like that are in the majority.

Change Research, BTW, is a tracking poll, not a composite, the difference being it shows a very specific sample during a specific period of time, while a composite puts together data from several polls and does an average. Fox, which shows Jones up by 8, is a composite, and 538, which has him up by 5, is also. The margin of error is less, and the data is more accurate.
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Re: Fox buddy Killian and Roy Moore

Postby Sandy » Wed Nov 29, 2017 2:21 pm

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What do you expect

Postby Stephen Fox » Wed Nov 29, 2017 4:55 pm

in a state where a leading influencer in the Collinsville Baptist church whose father is on the cornerstone, the local librarian refuses a fully paid for annual issue of the Oxford American mag founded by John Grisham and featuring the likes of Baptists over the years like Ron Rash, Vicki Covington and Bonhoeffer scholar Charles Marsh and in current issue has beautiful piece on Primitive Baptists and Line singing.

And her go to deacon a retired county school assistant chief boasts of not having one piece of literature in the house and not reading any book he can think of off hand in last 15 years. His SS school class was on Smyth Helwys literature for about 6 weeks and went back to BSSB lit.

So what does it matter in a state full of Baptists like this when Alsbom director Rick Lance is struck mute.

Just saying on a cynical afternoon but still voting for Doug Jones

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Re: Fox buddy Killian and Roy Moore

Postby Rvaughn » Wed Nov 29, 2017 5:43 pm

Sandy wrote:...I don't think there is a Moore supporter among the ones I have contact with, or see on social media, but most of them wouldn't have been before this all broke, either.
In addition to and accompaniment with turnout, I'd think this is another important factor. There are some who weren't going to vote for Moore not matter what, and some who will vote for Moore no matter. I don't know how many in the middle might turn away from Moore and vote for Jones. Maybe "moore" likely they won't vote, but then again might vote for Busby?
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Re: Fox buddy Killian and Roy Moore

Postby Haruo » Thu Nov 30, 2017 11:47 pm

Rvaughn wrote:The Change Research Poll, referenced at 538, had flipped for Jones, but now has flipped back to Moore:
https://medium.com/@ChngRsrch/jones-holds-3-point-lead-in-alabama-following-7-point-shift-since-sunday-c6db133e4522
https://medium.com/@ChngRsrch/moore-opens-up-49-44-lead-in-alabama-just-9-of-trump-voters-believe-allegations-against-moore-6d74baa84a68
What has changed? The largest difference is turnout: many Republicans who ten days ago said they might not vote, now say they plan to show up on Election Day and vote for Moore.

I wonder how many of them decided to vote this time because they really like the idea of district attorneys running around chasing underage girls. Alabama politics are just weird enough from my perspective that I can't actually dismiss that as a possibly significant factor. My apologies to all the decent folks in Alabama, but that's the way they look sometimes.
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Re: Fox buddy Killian and Roy Moore

Postby Sandy » Fri Dec 01, 2017 12:31 pm

Haruo wrote:
Rvaughn wrote:The Change Research Poll, referenced at 538, had flipped for Jones, but now has flipped back to Moore:
https://medium.com/@ChngRsrch/jones-holds-3-point-lead-in-alabama-following-7-point-shift-since-sunday-c6db133e4522
https://medium.com/@ChngRsrch/moore-opens-up-49-44-lead-in-alabama-just-9-of-trump-voters-believe-allegations-against-moore-6d74baa84a68
What has changed? The largest difference is turnout: many Republicans who ten days ago said they might not vote, now say they plan to show up on Election Day and vote for Moore.

I wonder how many of them decided to vote this time because they really like the idea of district attorneys running around chasing underage girls. Alabama politics are just weird enough from my perspective that I can't actually dismiss that as a possibly significant factor. My apologies to all the decent folks in Alabama, but that's the way they look sometimes.


Both of the major composite polling sites show that even in conservative estimates and careful calculation of past voting patterns, Jones has gained somewhere between 11 and 15% in positive responses, and is running between 43% and 47% of the vote, which is a considerable overperformance for a Democrat running for statewide office in Alabama. It's in the same ballpark as the other over-performance by Democrats seen in congressional races in deep red districts in Montana, South Carolina, Georgia and Kansas following the election. That means a pretty good chunk of Alabamans have changed their mind, or have given reasonable consideration to what's happened. I'd like to think that in a state where Southern Baptist church membership makes up over a third of the population, Moore wouldn't have a chance, but not so.
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Jimmy Kimmel coming to Gadsden Mall with Cheerleaders

Postby Stephen Fox » Fri Dec 01, 2017 1:27 pm

to fight roy moore.

http://yellowhammernews.com/politics-2/__trashed/

Those on facebook will want to read the comments to this story at yellowhammer news, founder Cliff Simms, Baptist preacher's son, Auburn grad, HS baseball player, now in Trump White House.

It's showtime for **** sure now in Bama.

Nick Saban move over!!!!!!!
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My anti Moore letter has been submitted

Postby Stephen Fox » Tue Dec 05, 2017 2:13 pm

For Publication to the weekly the Southern Torch, in a rebuttal to a Robert Crumley.

I join ranks with Charles Barkley opposing Moore on alt right grounds and I state my case and name names opposing Moore on church state grounds.

This morning Rick Burgess on air said he did not know who George W. Truett was. A Great Day for Bama Baps when the face of the Bama Bap Convention and key note speaker admits he doesn't have a clue who George Truett Was.

Maybe Bama and the Bama SBC deserve Roy Moore as their US Senator, but I will vote for Doug Jones, a fine Methodist!!!!
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Re: Fox buddy Killian and Roy Moore

Postby Rvaughn » Fri Dec 08, 2017 5:45 pm

Roy Moore accuser Beverly Nelson admits she wrote part of Moore's yearbook inscription
One of the women who accused Republican Senate candidate Roy Moore of sexual misconduct when she was a teenager has admitted to forging a portion of the high school yearbook inscription used as proof in her accusations...However, Nelson has also insisted that Moore still wrote the majority of the message and signed it.
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Re: Fox buddy Killian and Roy Moore

Postby William Thornton » Fri Dec 08, 2017 6:32 pm

Rvaughn wrote:Roy Moore accuser Beverly Nelson admits she wrote part of Moore's yearbook inscription
One of the women who accused Republican Senate candidate Roy Moore of sexual misconduct when she was a teenager has admitted to forging a portion of the high school yearbook inscription used as proof in her accusations...However, Nelson has also insisted that Moore still wrote the majority of the message and signed it.


This pretty much shreds her credibility.
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Re: Fox buddy Killian and Roy Moore

Postby Haruo » Sat Dec 09, 2017 12:32 am

William Thornton wrote:
Rvaughn wrote:Roy Moore accuser Beverly Nelson admits she wrote part of Moore's yearbook inscription
One of the women who accused Republican Senate candidate Roy Moore of sexual misconduct when she was a teenager has admitted to forging a portion of the high school yearbook inscription used as proof in her accusations...However, Nelson has also insisted that Moore still wrote the majority of the message and signed it.


This pretty much shreds her credibility.

Well, no it doesn't. Because she didn't admit to what the embedded quote says she did. She admitted to adding a notation of the time and place (she says) the inscription was written to her by Moore. The part she added doesn't particularly bear on the case. Politifact rated the assertion "Pants on Fire", but I think they may be a bit biased. Still, she didn't admit what she is claimed to have admitted.
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Re: Fox buddy Killian and Roy Moore

Postby KeithE » Sat Dec 09, 2017 10:36 am

Haruo wrote:Roy Moore accuser Beverly Nelson admits she wrote part of Moore's yearbook inscription
Well, no it doesn’t {shred her credibility} Because she didn't admit to what the embedded quote says she did. She admitted to adding a notation of the time and place (she says) the inscription was written to her by Moore. The part she added doesn't particularly bear on the case. Politifact rated the assertion "Pants on Fire", but I think they may be a bit biased. Still, she didn't admit what she is claimed to have admitted.


I agree with you Haruo. I also believe her, that she added the date and place later (as they pointed out yesterday morning on Good Morning America). Note that the add-ons underneath Moore’s signature are not in cursive.

Image

The add-ons were maybe written before she ever knew she would accused Moore (honorable - just documenting a odd disturbing fact in her life); or maybe afterwards (not so honorable but still not enough to discredit her verbal testimony or the yearbook signature).

Here is the Politifact “Pants on Fire lie" that Haruo mentioned. Several RW pundit groups inaccurately headlined that she “forged” Moore’s signature.

"WE CALLED IT! Gloria Allred Accuser **ADMITS** She Tampered With Roy Moore’s Yearbook ‘Signature’ (VIDEO)," the headline reads on The Gateway Pundit.
We found similar posts on Breitbart, "Roy Moore Accuser Beverly Nelson Admits She Forged Yearbook,"
and on the blog Silence is Consent, "Roy Moore accuser admits she forged yearbook inscription."


She did not admit to forging the signature. It was an awfully good forgery if it was one.

Image

Signature In High School Yearbook Belongs To Roy Moore, Says Handwriting Expert.
Expert confirmed his 1977 yearbook signature

Moore’s attorney said in November that they would have an handwriting expert analyzed this; but we have never heard those results (yet).

More discussion (on both sides) is at Slate’s article Roy Moore’s Fake Forgery Claim, A disingenuous distraction can’t overcome the handwriting on the wall..

People here in Alabama were going crazy about this yesterday. While I was at a packed Christmas Children’s Program at my son's church yesterday, an old Emmaus friend (I guess assuming I was a Moore fan) gleefully told me 'that lady Nelson admitted her story was a total lie’ (I use single quotes for as best as I can remember). I had no answer at the time. Overhead many others talking about it while we were waiting for the program to begin and as I was helping taking down the stands (on both sides of the issue). All of this may throw the election towards Moore. I expect more Moore last minute claims.
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Re: Fox buddy Killian and Roy Moore

Postby Jim » Sun Dec 10, 2017 12:35 pm

After watching my usual church activity this morning on TV (physical problem militates against attendance), I surfed to a CBS interview of Senator Durbin, who categorically made it clear that Moore has no business in the Senate or that he be dealt with if he makes it. This reminded me of his role in January 2009, when he, Democrat Majority Leader Reid, and President Obama made it clear that the Constitutionally-mandated appointee for Obama's vacated Senate seat would not be allowed by them to take that seat. Burris, the appointee (and no beauty), was locked out of even observing Senate proceedings (don't know about the bathrooms) and had to go to court for redress of his grievance. The court, predictably noting the law, buried Durbin, Reid and Obama, as well as Illinois officialdom, and Burris took the seat, leaving the worthy solons to eat crow and stew in their own juices. They attempted a corruption so profound (all of them lawyers) as to defy belief. Anyone doubting that this happened is welcome to look it up. I did a couple of blogs at the time on the subject: http://clarkscorner.org/polturpitude19.html; http://clarkscorner.org/disloyalty19.html. Durbin became famous, also, for comparing U.S. GIs in the Middle East to the “warriors” in Pol Pot's killing-fields, Stalin's butchers of the Gulags, and, of course, Hitler's bloodthirsty SS troops.
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Re: Fox buddy Killian and Roy Moore

Postby KeithE » Sun Dec 10, 2017 5:56 pm

My good friend Harvey, as we ate lunch today, said that he and his wife (Delores) drove to their home towns (Altoona and Walnut Grove, AL) and after visiting some relatives drove over the mountain on Tumblin Gap road where Roy Moore’s ranch is located (I've been many times going to Camp Sumatanga for Emmaus events). They saw no signs supporting Roy Moore and several houses had Doug Jones signs up in Roy’s hometown of Gallant, AL.

Map of Area

Speaks volumes from those who know him best.

And yes I know, Fox is probably the only other Alabamian reading here and I already know his vote.
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Re: Fox buddy Killian and Roy Moore

Postby Rvaughn » Sun Dec 10, 2017 8:19 pm

Interesting piece someone linked on Facebook:
Roy Moore and the Invisible Religious Right
The Facebook comments on this included: "It’s best for the GOP, Evangelicals, and Pro-Life Movement long-term for Jones to win this. Moore will go to the Senate and say one controversial thing after another and the whole GOP will wear him around their neck come November 2018. The best way to lose the Senate in November 2018 is for Moore to win on Tuesday. That’s politics."
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Re: Fox buddy Killian and Roy Moore

Postby Rvaughn » Mon Dec 11, 2017 2:12 pm

Haruo wrote:
William Thornton wrote:This pretty much shreds her credibility.

Well, no it doesn't. Because she didn't admit to what the embedded quote says she did. She admitted to adding a notation of the time and place (she says) the inscription was written to her by Moore. The part she added doesn't particularly bear on the case. Politifact rated the assertion "Pants on Fire", but I think they may be a bit biased. Still, she didn't admit what she is claimed to have admitted.
Leland, I think your comment relates to whether or not the addition should affect her credibility. When folks hear that she added to the inscription, I think it will affect her credibility -- whether it should or not. I still think the question (as far as the election is concerned) is how it plays with folks in the middle. Those on the left and right fringes don't care one way or the other.
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Re: Fox buddy Killian and Roy Moore

Postby Haruo » Tue Dec 12, 2017 5:44 pm

You're probably right, Robert. When I talk (without qualifiers) about "someone's credibility" I mean their credibility in the eyes of a person who has made some effort to learn about them so as to have an informed sense of their credibility. I think that people who have done so will realize that the assertion that she admitted "forging" any part of the inscription is a lie. I also think they will find the argumentation in this piece by a girl he had dated who had not accused him of sexual impropriety has more credibility than that of the right-end fake news artists who introduced the word "forging".
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Re: Fox buddy Killian and Roy Moore

Postby Rvaughn » Tue Dec 12, 2017 9:12 pm

You correctly note that Beverly Nelson did not admit to forging anything, only adding a note about when and where Roy Moore wrote the inscription. It is interesting that the Yahoo article I linked (Yahoo is definitely not "right-end") picked up the word forging -- possibly because the earliest reports used that word. Forging is a charged word, and no doubt in the opinion articles intended to put Nelson in the worst light. To me whether or not it is/was a forgery is based on the intent -- did she just make a notation for her own benefit, or did she make this notation at some point with the intention to deceive? Nevertheless, I can't help but believe the fact that she did not mention it to begin with, and then later stated that she added the notation will hurt her credibility in the eyes of some voters.

I guess we'll know in a few hours (or longer if it is close) just how this went.
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Re: Fox buddy Killian and Roy Moore

Postby Haruo » Tue Dec 12, 2017 10:15 pm

With 22% of precincts reporting it was Moore 52 to Jones 46. The write-in vote made no difference.
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Re: Fox buddy Killian and Roy Moore

Postby Haruo » Tue Dec 12, 2017 10:40 pm

55% reporting, still 52 to 46.
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Re: Fox buddy Killian and Roy Moore

Postby Rvaughn » Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:18 pm

At the moment -- 9:17 CST -- Washington Post is showing tied at 49.2% with 85.5% reporting.
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Re: Fox buddy Killian and Roy Moore

Postby Rvaughn » Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:24 pm

Based on the counties they are showing not completely reported -- Jefferson (Birmingham), Montgomery, Tuscaloosa (Univ. of Al), Madison (Huntsville) are probably big population centers and all but Tuscaloosa went for Clinton in the presidential election, so I'd say Jones may win. Three counties that went for Trump in the election -- Shelby, Baldwin and Marshall -- are not fully reported. The WAPO map shows Jones has flipped 10 counties that went for Trump in 2016.
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Re: Fox buddy Killian and Roy Moore

Postby Haruo » Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:45 pm

Now with 88% reporting AL.com says Jones is ahead by about 8000 votes. I begin to have hope. ;-) (Actually, I was prepared to be hopeful regardless of the outcome.)

Looks like the GOP's margin in the Senate is down to 1.
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Re: Fox buddy Killian and Roy Moore

Postby Sandy » Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:52 pm

Rvaughn wrote:Based on the counties they are showing not completely reported -- Jefferson (Birmingham), Montgomery, Tuscaloosa (Univ. of Al), Madison (Huntsville) are probably big population centers and all but Tuscaloosa went for Clinton in the presidential election, so I'd say Jones may win. Three counties that went for Trump in the election -- Shelby, Baldwin and Marshall -- are not fully reported. The WAPO map shows Jones has flipped 10 counties that went for Trump in 2016.


98% of the vote is in, all of the Republican counties are at 100%, Jones' lead will probably grow to several percent, and most of the networks and the GOP have all called it for Jones. Though a narrow race, it represents a 24% increase in Democratic support in one of the deepest red states in the country. They got the vote turnout they needed, and it is a monumental victory. Things do not bode well for Republicans, and it couldn't be a bigger disaster, or a bigger repudiation of Trump.
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