AHCA's Likely Big Change in Number Insured

[KeithE]

I just wanted to point out that the CBO score (of the original AHCA of a few weeks ago) ignored what I believed will be a big drop in number of insured. The net 24 M loss which CBO predicted would be insured will likely, imo, be much more because of the ending of not only personal mandate but also employer mandate in the group market. The CBO merely assumed that companies big and small (down to 50 people) will continue to offer health insurance. But I believe that many companies (large and small) will take this opportunity (if AHCA is enacted) to drop that benefit because they will no longer have to pay a penalty for not having that benefit offered.

You see these mods to the ACA also affects the group markets rules - like mandates and penalties.

That loss could easily be double (or more depending on employer greediest and urge to be competitive) the 24 M net loss in the Non-Group + Medicaid markets (what we are arguing about now in the ACA and ACHA). Remember that almost half (49% to be exact) of Americans get their insurance through group insurance, 7% in the non-Group, 20% in the Medicaid, 14% in Medicare, 2% in Other Public insurance programs (e.g VA, Congress, Tricare) leaving 9% uninsured in 2015.
Source:

That 9% uninsured is down from 16% in 2010 when the ACA was enacted - .

Medicare for All would drop that to 0%.

I do not know but feel fairly certain that companies (large to small) will drop health insurance coverage (right now 99% of companies over 1000 offer health insurance, 92.5-95.1% of companies sized between 100-999 , 72.3% for companies from 25-99). There is little room to go up in percent coverage.
Source:.

Or there will be more people assigned to <30 hours/wk so as to avoid benefit costs as we have already seen.

Just thought I would share some research I have done (and suspicions I have).