by Sandy » Tue Jul 26, 2016 1:43 pm
From a historical perspective, what it takes for a third party candidate to flourish is an issue or motivation that moves people ahead of, or to the side of one of the existing parties. In 1968, George Wallace ran on a platform not unlike that of Donald Trump, a populist, segregationist appeal to blue collar workers and white southerners opposed to the Democratic party support for the Civil Rights Act. His intention was to keep either Humphrey or Nixon from getting enough electoral votes to throw the election to the House, and had he carried Tennessee and North Carolina, and done a fraction of a percent better in Missouri, he'd have succeeded. Perot in 92 had personal money, and got enough exposure to pull voters from both candidates, Democrats not sure about Clinton, and Republicans disgusted with Bush's tax policy. He did carry a few counties, and actually finished second in a couple of states. When he ran in 96, he got about half the votes that he had in 92.
Trump's supporters are really a third party movement that has taken over the GOP, mainly because the rest of the support, the 55% of the party that didn't vote for Trump in the primaries, was diffused between too many candidates. They've picked up some support from those who will vote for the GOP candidate no matter what, but if a more establishment-connected candidate jumped in the race now, like Romney or Kasich, they'd immediately draw the preference of a majority of Republican voters. The same can probably be said for Bernie Sanders, who would not have a majority of Democrats, but would draw a significant number.