by Sandy » Thu May 05, 2016 8:57 am
The traditional "third" independent parties are too small, and their candidates too unknown to get much in the way of traction. If you look at the third party movements that have happened in modern history, like George Wallace, Ross Perot, and to a lesser extent, Ralph Nader and Ron Paul, they've formed around specific issues, or branched out of one of the main parties. None of them ever really stood a chance at electing a candidate, but at least one, maybe two, succeeded in changing the course of the election. Wallace took enough electoral votes out of Humphrey's column to ensure Nixon's election. Perot's presence didn't affect the electoral outcome of either election, though he did draw off some of the popular vote from both major party candidates.
It's a little late now for a third party movement to form, though there might be a lower turnout given the negative numbers for each of these candidates. Hillary has a solid poll lead over Trump, running from as little as 12 to as much as 20 points in most of the major polls currently out. And while this hasn't been a traditional campaign, the only polling data that's been off during the primaries was on the Democratic side in Michigan. I would guess that a lot of voters will exercise their right not to vote, and maybe more will vote write-in or third party than normal. I don't really see someone like Ted Cruz attempting a third party run, though the way he characterizes himself, and what he's said about conservatives not really being represented in the GOP any more, I suppose its possible.
In spite of all the rhetoric about Hillary's emails, and Benghazi, neither of which has actually produced enough legitimate, accurate evidence to take any kind of action except puttering around so that the radio deejay whackos have some conversation to fill their time slots, Donald Trump has an established reputation. He's an openly admitted adulterer and philanderer, a crook in business who has filed bankruptcy and cost the taxpayers billions of dollars, his tax returns, years worth of them, are under IRS investigation, and there are plenty of proven attempts to cheat the government for which his respective businesses have been declared guilty and paid fines. If the Republicans just lay down, and decide to "just support the party's nominee," they will own all of that dishonesty and immorality.