Prediction Contest

[KeithE]

When do you think Donald Trump will first no longer be leading the GOP polls. To make it it concrete, lets use the CNN/ORC poll.

My prediction - he will say ahead until Feb 1 2016.

Maintaining his lead until the GOP convention is certainly an option.

[Tim Bonney]

[Haruo]

I almost hope he wins the nomination, though what sort of four-or-five-horse dogfight of an election would follow is hard to imagine and might be harder still to stomach.

[Tim Bonney]

[Sandy]

Trump will stay in the race right up to the convention. It depends on when the current field begins to drop out, and where their support goes. He'll pick up most of Cruz's supporters, if he drops out, and he's probably already drained most of Perry's support, but Perry is at less than 1%, and I saw Cruz's on CNN this morning at 4%. The only other candidates I see him picking up support from if they drop would be Carson and Fiorina, but they don't attract as many of the anti-establishment voters as Trump does. I predict his support will peak at about 35% of the Republican vote, and he'll drop out of the lead after the field narrows down following Super Tuesday.

This is going to be a very hard election for the Republican candidate to win. In spite of all of the rhetoric about anti-Washington establishment, and the constant complaining from conservative extremists about Obama, his job performance is not going to drag down whomever the Democratic nominee is, like W did to the GOP in 2008. In fact, Obama's job approval low point didn't go below 40%, and it's moved back up into 50% territory. The voters, on the other hand, give the Republican controlled congress single digit approval ratings. And the pollsters and political media that have earned credibility by making the right calls over the past four or five elections are saying that the GOP field is not hitting on issues or positions that are resonating with voters. Smerconish pointed to data this morning that shows a GOP candidate would have to get over George H.W. Bush and Mitt Romney's highest percentages of the white vote, both 59%, to win. And the white vote will be 3% less in 2016 than it was in 2012. He noted that the GOP candidate will have to do better than 35% of the Latino vote, and right now the two Republicans leading among Latinos, Bush and Rubio, are only polling about 20%.
Trump is going to tear the party apart, and if he doesn't get the nomination, will leave it in shreds.