by Sandy » Mon Nov 03, 2014 10:15 am
It's looking like Pennsylvania will oust its current Republican governor, Tom Corbett, in favor of Democrat Tom Wolf, the owner of a large, and successful manufacturing plant in an area that's been economically depressed, but bounced back due to Obama administration initiatives. Also looks like the legislature, at least the Senate, will change from GOP to Democrat.
Not sure that the GOP will win "everywhere", especially since their job approval is lower than the Dems, and the "generic ballot" polling has had the Dems up by a slim margin, 1%, for the past two weeks. In 2010, the GOP had a +13 on the generic ballot. The GOP is billing this as a "referendum on the Obama administration" but actually, its more of a turnout driven money spending contest. Hard to say what the turnout will be, though the Democrats seem very happy with early voting totals in the key states that are almost at 2012 levels.
But, of course, polls don't vote. Even if Obama's job approval is at 40% (actually 45% in Gallup), their ground game can turn out enough votes to win. Their turnout and votes outpaced the polls in 2012 by 5-6%. So we shall see.
Don't see much of the news related to the campaigns in Georgia or Kentucky, but I bet one of those states produces a surprise Democratic senate winner.