what would it take to make GW alarmists have reservations?

[William Thornton]

Keith, how many more years of years the same recent temperature trends would you require to have some GW reservations?

[KeithE]

I paraphrased a reasonable question from William on an unrelated Topic and included his question in the post above.

[Dave Roberts]

A reasonable response from GW deniers.

[KeithE]

To answer William's question (assuming you mean surface air temperatures) I’d say never. If the relatively flat trend over the last 11 years (David has it as 18 years, 1 month based of one selected dataset) were to continue at the elevated level it is right now (nearly 1.5F over pre-industrial years), the harm we are causing to earth’s habitat would continue to sink in for centuries with increasing extreme weather.

To answer my question, about shutting me (and concerned climate scientists) up, I’ll give 3 criteria that would indicate to me that we do not have to fret over global warming anymore.

1) The surface air temperature reduce down to a temp anomaly of 0.0 or less (relative to the base period 1951-1980), only then can the climate extremes (hat waves, hurricane/typhoons, severe thunderstorms/flooding, drought, wildfires) be minimized to natural levels.

2) The ocean heat content anomaly reduce down to at least 2 x10 22 power Joules.


Then the ocean food chain and acidification would no longer be harmed. And the sea level would stop increasing.

3) The global cryosphere (glaciers, ice) stop melting also contributing to sea level rise and ending water supplies to many areas of the world.



That is my candid assessment of the state of the world that would shut this alarmist up. It considers all three “spheres” that have been influenced by ghgs (air, ocean, cryosphere). We have a long way to go.

It is not as simple as just having the surface air temp staying at it’s current trend (as you might be thinking William).

[Tim Bonney]

Admirable job of trying to get the argument going again William. Keith is right. He is just almost the only one here with the stamina to continue to argue what is settled science. I'm afraid that he'll never convince the naysayers until the signs are so obvious that no one can deny it.

[William Thornton]

"Shut up" sounds a bit aggressive...so I edited the title.

[KeithE]