Smooth passage of debt ceiling bill...

[Sandy]

...enraged the tea party bigots, but successfully avoided another government shutdown. No demands, straight up or down vote, 221 to 201, extension to next March. It's a clue as to how badly the polls on the mid term election must be looking for the GOP, and how badly the government shut down hurt them.

[KeithE]

It does seem the American people have risen up to put down the Tea Party (but we must keep slaying that dragon). Now we also must work on what goes on in the background by outlawing lobbying/campaign contributions/side special amendments to better the bottomline of industries.

[Sandy]

I'd love to see the inside polling data from the GOP, especially after the senate vote today. The Democrats say their polls show the government shutdown will yield them about 35 house seats in 2014, and a gain of 3 or 4 in the senate. It must be pretty close to that, based on the lack of any real challenge of substance as the bill slid right through the Senate.

[Tim Bonney]

[Dave Roberts]

When we look at VA, only half the congressional seats are even in play due to gerrymandering. There are protected seats for both parties. The last legislature tried to jam democrats into traditionally democratic seats and pad GOP majorities wherever they could. In the district where I live, the incumbent has won by 60% margins or better for 6 elections, and it's not because he is that popular. It's because his district is so skewed.

[Sandy]

Looks like the districts will be redrawn in PA for 2014. There was a lawsuit which the state supreme court recently decided that successfully defined the district redrawing in 2010 as "gerrymandering" and is ordering a redrawing by a non-partisan commission. That will put an end to congressional districts that completely cross the state and connect suburbs in Pittsburgh with suburbs in Philadelphia. The Democrats have about a million more registered voters than the Republicans and independents combined, so there will be multiple gains in Pennsylvania.

I think most of the districts that the Democrats have identified for taking are places where they anticipate a primary challenge from a tea partier to an established Republican, or are in areas of the Northeast and West where there's been a shift in demographics, or where the discontent with the House of Representatives runs high. They're looking to a rapid increase in Hispanic voters to win districts in Florida, Arizona, Colorado, Nevada and Texas, and to places like Ohio, North Carolina and Missouri, where there have been draconian restrictions either attempted, or placed on voters, like photo ID, or cutting back on early voting. I think the other difference will be that the Obama campaign organization is still active and operating, raising large amounts of money that can be given to individual candidates, and continuing the ground game that got him re-elected. Virtiually every other email I get from the DNC emphasizes turning out and voting in the mid-term.