If healthcare.gov were a for-profit corporation

[William Thornton]

[Dave Roberts]

A friend who just retired after teaching government in high school and political science in college compiled the following information:

Famous Presidential promises in my lifetime.
1. We would not send U2 spy planes over Russia. The Russians shot down a weather plane. (Ike 1959).

2. We would not be involved in an invasion of Cuba. The invaders are independent freedom fighters. (Kennedy.)

3. The US ships were in international waters. They had not been in the national waters of North Vietnam. (Johnson.)

4. I am not a crook. The American people need to know that their president is not a crook. (Nixon)

5. There were no spies at our embassy in Tehran. (Carter)

6. I would never trade illegal arms with Iran and fund the Contras. (Reagan)

7. Read my lips. No new taxes. (George H. Bush.)

8. I did not have sex with that woman. (Clinton.)

9. There is no doubt that the Iraqi government has weapons of mass destruction; and are trying to build a nuclear device. (GWB)

10. If you like your old insurance (even is it is crappy insurance) you can keep it. (Obama.) (Italics added my me.)

Guess Obama is in good company.

[William Thornton]

The "you can keep..." line is now in the political lore with "I did not have sex..." and "no new taxes."

It's that big and is not diminished by whatever good company list one offers.

[Sandy]

[William Thornton]

Yeah, no big deal...guess all the democrats are overreacting.

[Sandy]

[Tim Bonney]

Reality Check Time

Ah, come on William. You know politics better than this. The Republicans hate Obamacare because it was originally a Republican idea and Obama might make it work meaning he'd get some credit for the reform.

So they are going to criticize everything about it they can because they hate it so much no matter how big or small. Yes the web page has been screwed up. But if it wasn't that they'd find something to attack about ACA even if they had to make something up. Frankly the Republicans have been gleeful about the easy target that the website has been. But ultimately the website will get fixed and ACA will move on to the utter disappointment of partisans everywhere.

They are also ticked off that they shut down the government and looked like idiots because they couldn't bully the President into changing ACA by threatening the well being of the USA. So now they have been overjoyed that the President's staff screwed up a website so they can get your mind off the fact that they came within inches of screwing over the entire country because of their childish temper tantrum.

[KeithE]

[Sandy]

There was a big headline in some of the internet news services, and in the local paper, about the GOP seeing the problems with healthcare as an opportunity to capitalize politically. I was reading a list of comments following one of those stories, and people were not upset about the "you can keep your current policy" statement, they were upset that capitalizing on this issue for an election was a higher priority for the GOP than providing a viable, workable, health care plan.

If polls are important, then you would think that the GOP would have paid attention to those which, over the past five years, have shown that 7 out of 10 voters are completely dissatisfied with the cost, and accesibility, of health care, and strongly believe reform is necessary. A full two thirds see the government as the only entity powerful enough to cause that to happen. Their rhetoric of this being a "mess," a "disaster," and all the crap that goes along with it is not helping them, and announcing to the electorate that they see this as an opportunity to "capitalize" is not going to go over well. By the beginning of the year, the initiatives of the ACA will be in place, most people will find that their new health insurance provides more and costs less than their old policy under the old system did, another million Americans who weren't covered will be. In addition to that, the Democrats have been willing to negotiate and resolve every sticking point. Voters see that in contrast to the rigid obstructionism of the GOP.

The GOP billed the 2012 Presidential and congressional elections as a referendum on "Obamacare" and they lost big time. They just lost all three of the major elected offices in an off year election in Virginia that was billed as a referendum on Obamacare. You'd think they'd be on to something else by now. They'd have a better chance running on criticizing Michelle's clothes.

[Dave Roberts]

When Medicare rolled out in the mid 1960's it too had problems. Because it fulfilled a desperate need, both parties came together to resolve the problems. Now all we have is a "house divided" that refuses to "promote the general welfare." It's time for a new Congress and time for the overturning of Citizens United that has given us "Dollarocracy."

[William Thornton]

Ah...how I love the mod lib fantasy world.

Timothy, it is not at all clear that ACA will "move on" after the promised fixes, and this doubt is coming from a lot of dems and the ACA experts and designers. The screw up may have permanent damage. In a way I wish it could be modified so as to be both beneficial and successful. I just have doubts about the gummit being capable of doing it. The last six weeks has not done anything to dispel my doubts.

Let's not forget that the minority, opposition party is not required to swallow whatever the party in power dictates and ACA is the only sweeping social change adopted on a purely, totally partisan basis. I know that Obamaphiles wish that all would just allow him to be king and ruler but our system was wisely designed that minorities have power.

May I remind my mod lib friends that I, alone here, was an optimistic potential consumer of the ACA product. ACA is not helped when folks like me are demonized for our resistance to The Anointed One and his programs. Frankly, only a True Believer would not question his leadership if not competence at this point.

[Sandy]

[William Thornton]

Heck, Sandy, why didn't you say you get all your stuff from the DNC? Who woulda thunk it? Stellar unbiased outfit like that, with a bald faced liar at the head? Nothing left but to fall in zombie line for the daily Kool aid dosage.

[KeithE]

[Sandy]

[Tim Bonney]

The problem is Sandy that when it comes to politics you and I live in a different political world view than William does. I'm not sure there is anything that would convince him to change his view.

The good news for Democrats is that the 50+ white male is a shrinking species. But it is a larger and larger portion of Republicans. The more multiracial and multicultural we become the more the Tea Party Republican wing of the party will yell and scream because their power base is shrinking. So be it.

[William Thornton]

[Tim Bonney]

[Sandy]

[Tim Bonney]

Yes, one thing that liberal Christians and Conservative Christians have in common is wanting to influence the decisions of government about social issues. We want different things but we both want to encourage the government in those areas.

You've pointed out a great contradiction Sandy. Wanting smaller government is self-defeating if you want the government to do something about social ills, be that morality or anything else.

A powerless government sounds great until you actually need/want the government to be able to do something.

[David Flick]

[Sandy]

[Tim Bonney]

[Sandy]

I don't have a crystal ball. I'm just a reasonably well educated former high school social studies teacher/bi-vocational minister who has enough of an interest in American politics to observe what my experienced and knowledgeable professors, and others who share the same interest, have told me to observe in order to see where things are going.

Issues rarely decide elections, especially on the national level. Turnout decides elections. Issues help turn out your base. If you want to know what your base is thinking, and how well it will turn them out, you use a reliable poll that cuts to the chase. Exit polling data from previous elections can tell you what caused the voters in your base to turn out. So if you can calculate the size of the base, and the ability of an issue or politician to turn it out, you can make some accurate, long term predictions. Money is spent by political parties, and now by PACS, based on the data they see in the polls, not the data they report.

The problem that the Republicans have is that the conservative wing of the party has polarized its base, and it has no new constituency from which to draw new voters. The mother lode of new votes in the US is among the Hispanic population, which is under-represented in registration. The Democrats have increased their support among Hispanic voters from about 58% during the Bush years to over 70% currently. In addition to that, they increased voter registration among Hispanics by 5% over the past four years, and among African Americans by 3% over that same period of time, and increased the turnout of those ethnic groups by 10%. They have increased their support among women voters by 7%, including white women. The Republicans can't point to a constituency where their influence has increased. The religious right is declining in number, along with the number of Catholics and mainliners who vote Republican. In a turnout election, especially a mid-term, the Republicans no longer have the numbers to overcome the Democrats, if they turn out their base in average numbers, because independents, predictably, split their vote, and the Democrats have constituencies that counter a high conservative turnout.

So, how can I predict that the Democrats will likely take back the house in 2014, and that what the Republicans call the "disaster of Obamacare" will not have an effect, at least on the Democrats? 1) The ACA was passed in 2009, and the Republicans, their associated PACS and opponents have spent literally billions of dollars on all kinds of propaganda to convince people to vote for politicians who would repeal it. The Democrats gained seats in both Houses, won the popular Congressional vote 57 to 41%, won the Presidency and won the popular vote by a margin that isn't considered "close" by American political standards. They've won every election where the ACA was made a priority issue by a GOP candidate since then. 2) The approval rating for the ACA has remained consistently around 45%. That's a loser, right? Except that of the remaining 55% who don't approve, 20% don't do so because they think the ACA did not go far enough in reforming insurance and health care. Those are the single payer folks, and they aren't going to vote to go back. 3) Virginia is a conservative, Southern, bellwether state. The sweep of the top three elected offices by the Democrats, including the governorship which was won by 4 percentage points by a not so popular Democrat, non-native Virginian, is a clear indication of the effect of Obamacare on the electorate. That election was held at the worst possible moment for Democrats, when the website troubles were widely publicized and the President was being roundly criticized for his statement about keeping insurance policies you like. But against all of the conventional wisdom and past history, they won anyway. I'd bet that David Axelrod and the Obama ground team is poring over those exit polls, combing out the data and putting it to use. And I'd bet that the Republicans aren't. 4) Don't use Fox news, or Glenn Beck's or Rush Lamebrain's interpretation of polling data. Previous exit polls predict patterns, current polls reflect trends. You have to combine patterns with trends. One of the best polling interpreters and political analysts in television today is NBC's Chuck Todd. And of course, there's the New York Times, which has nailed national races for over a decade.

[ET]

You folks inhabiting the left side of the political spectrum need to keep in mind that the other shoe drops in another year, when Obamacare takes the whip to company-provided plans. Obama showed the political savvy to delay that part until after the 2014 elections. Should employers start dumping their employees off into the exchanges because the bean counters show that it's logical to do so instead of continuing to provide that benefit to their employees, then it will REALLY be fun to watch.