Global Warming Update

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Re: Global Warming Update

Postby KeithE » Thu Aug 07, 2014 7:42 am

Just to handle one mischaracterization (I’ll be kind and not call it a lie) in David’s post above before work this morning.

David gave a link entitled "a specific example of a lie found in AIT” referring to Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth (AIT) released on Jan 24, 2006. The plot and main point given in that link is:
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showing a low point in Feb 2012 and drawing a line from Jan 2006 until Feb 2012 therefore claiming a “lie". Al Gore in AIT had said (given this data and other longer term data - e.g GISS) that air temperatures will continue to increase unless ghg’s are controlled. Aside from the fact I don’t think prognostication can be a “lie” (it can be wrong) and the fact that the ghg’s emissions have diminished since 2006 (in the US at least),
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Al Gore’s global prognostication is correct looking at the more recent data.

I wonder why David didn't show Roy Spencer's latest data which I gave in my post yesterday and repeat here:
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which I got directly from Roy Spencer’s website as of August 5, 2014. It is the same data except extended beyond Feb 2012 until July 2014. It shows a rise of 0.1C from Jan 2006 until July 2014.

No excuses David, I had provided that data just yesterday! This is typical of the personal vedanta crapola coming from those that David trusts and apparently never checks or updates.

I note that the first half of David’s post is all personal vendetta vs scientists (and Al Gore). The second half of David’s post is the PR war about who takes funding from who and how much. That is another area that the RW mischaracterizes. It is no more honest than the scientific data mishandling described above. I focus on the science.
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Re: Global Warming Update

Postby KeithE » Fri Aug 08, 2014 8:42 am

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David Flick wrote:
    Yes, and one cannot ignore the fact that global temperatures have risen only 1.4 degrees since 1880. If anything will send chills up the back of an AGW alarmist, just tell him that global temperatures have risen massive 1.4 degrees in the last 134 years!! Yep, that's exactly what your graph above shows. Now, that's gosh-awful, dadgum scarey, isn't it?.. :lol: :lol:


Today before work (still have 11 days to go but who is counting), let me provide some information about what ill-effects have already been observed due to global warming. This Hot Map gives 75+ Hot Points around the globe and documents the effects.

Click on these Hot Points for
1) a brief description of the effects,
2) scroll down to read basic facts and
3) read the "detail page” for greater detail and related references.
The map concentrates on the US because there are more documented effects known there - I’m sure there would be a more equal density of Hot Points around the world if these effects were more uniformly studied. And the oceans have been perhaps the most affected environment and are not mentioned.

Then look over the projected impacts in 17 categories down the left side.

After reading this, if one’s attitude is like David’s sarcasm above, you are either a scientific ill-literate, apathetic about world conditions now and in the future, or have been brainwashed by the GW denialism machine.

I’ll admit that this $900M/year Climate Change Counter Movement (CCCM) PR effort has had an effect in the US public opinion beginning about 2008 (but is waning today as the effects have become more visible).
Series of Gallup Polls on global Warming.
First one below:
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But scan them all as you have time and interest.

The US leads the world in GW denialism due to this very aggressive PR machine in the US; but still 57% of Americansbelieve we are "heading for an environmental disaster if we do not change quickly” vs ~30% who are in denial.
Image
I would suggest that most of the ~30% GW denialists are among the diehard conservatives that listen to Fox News' one-sided propaganda or some (like David) tie into WattsUpWithThat and other sources of scientific mischaracterization (again I’m being nice).

Remember 95-100% of climatologists (those most studied on the matter) (depending on polls every year since 2007), believe not only in the threat of GW/CC but also that man has caused this.
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Re: Global Warming Update

Postby David Flick » Sun Aug 31, 2014 3:25 am

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Keith & Algore have been nervously and consistently warning about dangerous and rapidly melting Arctic sea ice. Keith often cites the hopelessly bogus quotes from the so-called "97% of climatologists" as proof positive that an ice-free Arctic region is imminent.
On Thu Feb 20, 2014 9:23 pm, Keith wrote:
[...]

But one needs to understand it is the long term trends in past measured data of several parameters (Arctic sea ice volume, glaciers, coral reefs, ocean temps, atmospheric temps, weather extremes) that prove w/o any serious doubt to 97% of climatologists that GW/CC is a man-caused threat to our future habitat and inaction now with cement that threat in. Even w/o computer model projections one has to "hope" these parameters improve so as to avoid more harmful effects. Our track is not good. Positive feedback is also occurring - one study this week mentioned the albedo feedback from melting Arctic sea ice as being responsible for up to 1/4 of the ocean's heating (as I remember).
(Source...)

In 2007, 2008 and 2009, Gore publicly and very hysterically warned that the North Pole would be “ice-free” by around 2013 because of alleged “man-made global warming.” Back in 2007, in his typical hysterical manner, Gore boasted that "The North Polar ice cap is falling off a cliff. It could be completely gone in summer in as little as seven years." (Source...)

So much for all the hysteria about an ice-free Arctic region by 2013. An article, which appeared yesterday, the notion that the North Polar ice cap would be ice-free has been thoroughly debunked. Without further comment, I submit the article for reading by BLifers and BLife alarmists...


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Re: Global Warming Update

Postby David Flick » Tue Sep 09, 2014 3:44 am

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Re: Global Warming Update

Postby KeithE » Tue Sep 09, 2014 4:58 am



Bunch of bull but I’m not going to waste my retirement time answering David.

If he continues to link disreputable sources like the GWPF, James Delingpole, and Roy Spencer (who had to dig out old climate modeling from 1983 to make his very partial point [air temps increases have been lower that predicted in 1983] and does not include increases in ocean temps or cryospshere melting nor the entire history of air surface temps for that matter), I will seek permission from the BL staff to delete them!

Meanwhile read the truth: 2014 IPCC WG I Summary for Policymakers.
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Re: Global Warming Update

Postby David Flick » Tue Sep 09, 2014 6:10 am

KeithE wrote:

Bunch of bull but I’m not going to waste my retirement time answering David.
        :lol:
If he continues to link disreputable sources like the GWPF, James Delingpole, and Roy Spencer (who had to dig out old climate modeling from 1983 to make his very partial point [air temps increases have been lower that predicted in 1983] and does not include increases in ocean temps or cryospshere melting nor the entire history of air surface temps for that matter), I will seek permission from the BL staff to delete them!
    What's the matter, Keith? Can't take the cold hard facts or an opposing view?? :lol:
Meanwhile read the truth: 2014 IPCC WG I Summary for Policymakers.

    Yeah sure, you can be sure that the IPCC is the beacon of Global Warming truth... :lol:
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Re: Global Warming Update

Postby David Flick » Fri Sep 12, 2014 5:27 am

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Re: Global Warming Update

Postby David Flick » Sat Sep 13, 2014 1:39 am

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      Yes, Global Warming is real... :D
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Re: Global Warming Update

Postby David Flick » Tue Sep 16, 2014 3:06 am

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Jonathon Moseley wrote:
    September 15, 2014

    The Oceans Ate Global Warming?
    By Jonathon Moseley

    In Alice in Wonderland, by Lewis Carroll, Alice says she cannot believe impossible things. The Queen of Hearts is surprised: “When I was younger, I always did it for half an hour a day. Why, sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.”

    Therefore, suppose we compare two events:

    1. Global warming advocates argue that the oceans are absorbing the extra heat that their computer models predicted, which has mysteriously vanished. The missing heat over the last 18 years has been going into the oceans.
    2. Yet, the Arctic Sea Ice Cap aound the North Pole has grown by 43% since 2012. As confirmed by satellites from orbit, the Arctic ice pack has grown by 1.715 million square kilometers in the last two years, as reported in England’s Daily Mail. That is the size of the truly massive state of Alaska.
    So, might we ask a question? Yes, you with your hand up.

    If the Earth hasn’t warmed for the last 18 years because the predicted heat is going into the oceans, then why is there 43% more ice in the last two years? If you add heat to water containing ice, doesn’t the ice normally melt? Does it normally freeze over, creating more ice?

    (Continue reading...)

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Re: Global Warming Update

Postby David Flick » Tue Sep 16, 2014 4:59 am

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Re: Global Warming Update

Postby David Flick » Tue Sep 16, 2014 8:26 pm

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            Image


      Anyone interested in watching AGW climate change propaganda live and in loving color? Algore's so-called "24 Hours of Reality" show began today at 12:00pm CDT. As of 7:00pm CDT, the show is in hour #9. The slick and very good looking climate change snake oil salesmen/women are doing a fine job of attacking those evil "deniers." The Climate Change medicine show runs from noon to noon, today & tomorrow. Gotta hand it to them. They do a real good job of promoting propaganda... Very, very slick and well choreographed...

      Here's the link to the live broadcast for the best propaganda that Algore's money can buy: 24 Hours or Reality




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Re: Global Warming Update

Postby KeithE » Tue Sep 16, 2014 11:04 pm

David,

Thanks for your last post/link (24 Hours of Reality). I will watch it.

Your 5 posts prior to that are not worthy of my time.
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Re: Global Warming Update

Postby David Flick » Wed Sep 17, 2014 2:43 am

KeithE wrote:David,

Thanks for your last post/link (24 Hours of Reality). I will watch it.

    You're welcome...

Your 5 posts prior to that are not worthy of my time.

    Not a problem. I didn't expect you to reply...
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Re: Global Warming Update

Postby David Flick » Sun Sep 21, 2014 3:52 am

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Re: Global Warming Update

Postby KeithE » Sun Sep 21, 2014 8:37 am

David Flick wrote:.
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            Antarctic Sea Ice Extent Update...

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It appears true that the last several month have shown an increase in sea ice extent but not necessarily volume (can’t find that data) and certainly not overall ice melts over the south pole region. As I have explained before, scientists know that this increase in sea ice extent is due to melting/breakup of the glacial ice over the continent of Antarctica (particularly over the West Antarctic Glacier). That water runs out to sea and refreezes at sea in fresh water form which freezes easier than saline water. This is not news to the scientific community - read more at The World Is Warming. So Why Is Antarctic Sea Ice Hitting Record Highs? with this reason and several others.

Overall the Antarctic region is losing ice at an increasingly rapid rate.
Image
Source is NASA.

Read it and quit passing on isolated/misleading factoids.
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Re: Global Warming Update

Postby David Flick » Sun Sep 21, 2014 10:04 pm

David Flick wrote:
            Antarctic Sea Ice Extent Update...



KeithE wrote:1It appears true that the last several month have shown an increase in sea ice extent but not necessarily volume (can’t find that data) and certainly not overall ice melts over the south pole region. 2As I have explained before, scientists know that this increase in sea ice extent is due to melting/breakup of the glacial ice over the continent of Antarctica (particularly over the West Antarctic Glacier). 3That water runs out to sea and refreezes at sea in fresh water form which freezes easier than saline water. This is not news to the scientific community - read more at The World Is Warming. So Why Is Antarctic Sea Ice Hitting Record Highs? with this reason and several others.

    1) Wow! Unbelievable. I can't believe you can't find the data you're searching for. Perhaps you aren't searching in the right propaganda sources. Perhaps it's because there is no empirical data that shows an increase in sea ice extent but not necessarily volume. That's primarily an alarmist myth. Have you tried Joe Romm's Climate Progress website? What about John Cook's Skeptical science website? Or maybe DeSmogBlog? Have you searched the IPCC AR4? You could also search Michael Mann's RealClimate website. There's a whole gob AGW/CC propaganda on Wikipedia, including here and here. Keep searching, I'm sure you will eventually locate the propaganda you're searching for... :)

    2) Keith, you really have a penchant for alarming CAGW propaganda... The article you cited above is a perfect example. The title says it all: West Antarctic Glacier Slow-Speed Collapse May Be Unstoppable. So the collapse of the West Antarctica glacier is inevitable? Unstoppable? Yeah sure, how many scores of times over the past decades have we been told about unstoppable, irreversable tipping points etc. Uhmm... Probably a million times, more or less. Let's see, you have Algore's Nobel prize winner, An Inconvenient Truth. There's James Hansens tragic story about his hopeless, helpless grandchildren. There's the marvelous and wounderous IPCC report about "irreversible" damage to the planet. And you have recent alarming news articles decrying the irreversible nature of catastrophic global warming. There's literally no end to the the alarmist propaganda about "unstoppable" and "irreversible" effects of catastrophic global warming. The article you cited falls in the same catagory.

    ........Here's an interesting bit of information about, Phil Plait, the author of the article you cited. He's known as the "Bad Astronomer." One of the books he wrote is, Death from the Skies!: These Are The Ways The World Will End. I haven't read the book, but the title pretty much gives it away. According to this description of the book, heat death of the universe is inevitable. Plait is a full-bore CAGW alarmist. I would characterize the article you cited as being, well, another in a long line of AGW propaganda articles...

    3) Eric Holthaus, the author of the second article you posted above, is an emotionally unbalanced alarmist meterologist. He became famous for weeping and declaring that he would never fly again after he read a recent IPCC report. You can read about him here, here, here, and here.

    ........Regarding Holthaus' article, you can chalk it up as being another propaganda piece. It belongs in the category of "Global Warming is the cause of Global Cooling." It's a feeble attempt to explain away what is actually happening. It's a feeble attempt to declare that global warming is in full swing while it just appears to be cooling. Holthaus writes:
    Eric Holthaus wrote:It’s the third consecutive year that the icebergs that surround the continent have expanded into unseen territory. What the heck is going on? Didn’t Antarctica get the climate change memo? Isn’t polar ice supposed to be melting?

    He goes on to quote from an article by Phil Plait (the "Bad Astronomer" above). Yes, Plait is the same guy who wrote in his book, Death From the Skies..., that heat death of the universe is inevitable. I guess since death will come from the skies, it must also follow that death of glaciers at the bottom of the world will come from water melting at the bottom of the Antarctic sea ice. Mighty alarming to say the least. There's a whole lot of propaganda going on here. I'll be the very first to recant if all of this does come to pass. :D

Overall the Antarctic region is losing ice at an increasingly rapid rate.
Image
Source is NASA.

Read it and quit passing on isolated/misleading factoids.

    I read it... I don't post isolated/misleading factoids. As Detective Sergeant, Joe Friday, of the old Dragnet series always said, "Just the facts, ma'am..." :D
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Re: Global Warming Update

Postby KeithE » Sun Sep 21, 2014 11:00 pm

David Flick wrote:
David Flick wrote:
            Antarctic Sea Ice Extent Update...



KeithE wrote:1t appears true that the last several month have shown an increase in sea ice extent but not necessarily volume (can’t find that data) and certainly not overall ice melts over the south pole region. 2As I have explained before, scientists know that this increase in sea ice extent is due to melting/breakup of the glacial ice over the continent of Antarctica (particularly over the West Antarctic Glacier). 3That water runs out to sea and refreezes at sea in fresh water form which freezes easier than saline water. This is not news to the scientific community - read more at The World Is Warming. So Why Is Antarctic Sea Ice Hitting Record Highs? with this reason and several others.

1) Wow! Unbelievable. I can't believe you can't find the data you're searching for. Perhaps you aren't searching in the right propaganda sources. Perhaps it's because there is no empirical data that shows an increase in sea ice extent but not necessarily volume. That's primarily an alarmist myth. Have you tried Joe Romm's Climate Progress website? What about John Cook's Skeptical science website? Or maybe DeSmogBlog? Have you searched the IPCC AR4? There's a whole gob AGW/CC propaganda on Wikipedia, including here and here. Keep searching, I'm sure you will eventually locate the propaganda you're searching for... :)


I’m searching for volumetric data like PIOMAS (shown below) provides for the Arctic Sea Ice. Have not checked all of the IPCC AR4 (or later AR5 reports), but that specific data is not at the other sites you mentioned.

Image
Have not found that at any site via googling ("Antarctic Sea Ice Volume data”) in any format. Of all the plots none are specifically Antarctic Sea Ice Volume. I do not think there is any measurements of thickness like what is done in the Arctic PIOMAS data.

If I find out differently it will be DATA from recognized sources like the data below (which is for the far greater volume of glaciers over the Antarctic land, both areal extent and thickness far greater for glaciers over land than sea ice around the continent):

Image
Source is NASA.

Not propaganda from some website devoted to denying GW/CC.

You said you read that NASA source which says in its first paragraph:
There has been lots of talk lately about Antarctica and whether or not the continent's giant ice sheet is melting. One new paper 1, which states there’s less surface melting recently than in past years, has been cited as "proof" that there’s no global warming. Other evidence that the amount of sea ice around Antarctica seems to be increasing slightly 2-4 is being used in the same way. But both of these data points are misleading. .(then explains why)....
Show some comprehension of what is said else your credibility is nil.
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Re: Global Warming Update

Postby David Flick » Mon Sep 22, 2014 1:19 am

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KeithE wrote:I’m searching for volumetric data like PIOMAS (shown below) provides for the Arctic Sea Ice. Have not checked all of the IPCC AR4 (or later AR5 reports), but that specific data is not at the other sites you mentioned.

Image
Have not found that at any site via googling ("Antarctic Sea Ice Volume data”) in any format. Of all the plots none are specifically Antarctic Sea Ice Volume. I do not think there is any measurements of thickness like what is done in the Arctic PIOMAS data.

If I find out differently it will be DATA from recognized sources like the data below (which is for the far greater volume of glaciers over the Antarctic land, both areal extent and thickness far greater for glaciers over land than sea ice around the continent):

    Perhaps such DATA doesn't exist... Continue searching...

Image
Source is NASA.

Not propaganda from some website devoted to denying GW/CC.

      :lol:

1You said you read that NASA source which says in its first paragraph:
There has been lots of talk lately about Antarctica and whether or not the continent's giant ice sheet is melting. One new paper 1, which states there’s less surface melting recently than in past years, has been cited as "proof" that there’s no global warming. Other evidence that the amount of sea ice around Antarctica seems to be increasing slightly 2-4 is being used in the same way. But both of these data points are misleading. .(then explains why)....
2Show some comprehension of what is said 3else your credibility is nil.

1) I did read the first paragraph, ...and the explanation as well.

2) Comprehension? Not to worry. I can read with decent comprehension.

3) Credibility with whom, pray tell?? I have no interest in gaining credibility with the AGW alarmists. My interest is in documenting the facts about the supposed problem of catastrophic AGW. And the facts bear out the truth that global warming (catastrophic or otherwise) does not exist. Furthermore, the facts show that AGW hasn't existed for nearly two decades now. Additional facts, along with a nice graph, can be found here.

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Re: Global Warming Update

Postby David Flick » Mon Sep 22, 2014 2:44 am

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In this post, I wrote about Phil Plait (in point #2) who posited that the collapse of the West Antarctic Glacier is inevitable. In the article, he posted this nifty video, in which he claims to show how the glacier is melting from the bottom. Turns out that the alarmists are claiming the same principle works for other parts of the Antarctic sea ice. Shortly after I posted my points, I ran across an article that debunks the notion that huge amounts of Antarctic sea ice are rapidly melting from the bottom. Actually, they are basing their theory on computer models rather than actual data. Here's the article ( highlights mine):
    Melting ice shelf assertion based on computer models without ANY direct data

    By Robert On September 21, 2014

    Seems that the scientists who claimed that the Fimbul Ice Shelf is melting from the bottom up were basing their assertions exclusively on computer models without any direct data for comparison or guidance. They had made no direct observation of what was actually happening out there in the real world.

    This led to an overestimation of water temperatures and extent of melting beneath the Fimbul Ice Shelf, which in turn led to the misconception that the ice shelf is losing mass at a faster rate than it is gaining mass.


    However, the model results were in contrast to the available data from satellite observations,.

    New studies show that water temperatures are “significantly” lower than computer models predicted, which means that the Fimbul Ice Shelf is melting at a slower rate than predicted.

    The researchers used data collected from nine male elephant seals that spent the winter along the outskirts of the Fimbul Ice Shelf.

    It is possible that the shelf is neither losing nor gaining mass at the moment, because ice buildup from snowfall has kept up with the rate of mass loss, said lead author of the study and PhD student at the Norwegian Polar Institute (NPI), Tore Hattermann.

    The Fimbul Ice Shelf – located along eastern Antarctica in the Weddell Sea – is the sixth largest of the forty-three ice shelves that dapple Antarctica’s perimeter. (Source...)

There's no doubt that it makes for a very alarming story if the alarmists can paint the goriest story possible. It's great propaganda...
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Re: Global Warming Update

Postby KeithE » Mon Sep 22, 2014 8:08 am

David Flick wrote:.
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In this post, I wrote about Phil Plait (in point #2) who posited that the collapse of the West Antarctic Glacier is inevitable. In the article, he posted this nifty video, in which he claims to show how the glacier is melting from the bottom. Turns out that the alarmists are claiming the same principle works for other parts of the Antarctic sea ice. Shortly after I posted my points, I ran across an article that debunks the notion that huge amounts of Antarctic sea ice are rapidly melting from the bottom. Actually, they are basing their theory on computer models rather than actual data. Here's the article ( highlights mine):
    Melting ice shelf assertion based on computer models without ANY direct data

    By Robert On September 21, 2014

    Seems that the scientists who claimed that the Fimbul Ice Shelf is melting from the bottom up were basing their assertions exclusively on computer models without any direct data for comparison or guidance. They had made no direct observation of what was actually happening out there in the real world.

    This led to an overestimation of water temperatures and extent of melting beneath the Fimbul Ice Shelf, which in turn led to the misconception that the ice shelf is losing mass at a faster rate than it is gaining mass.


    However, the model results were in contrast to the available data from satellite observations,.

    New studies show that water temperatures are “significantly” lower than computer models predicted, which means that the Fimbul Ice Shelf is melting at a slower rate than predicted.

    The researchers used data collected from nine male elephant seals that spent the winter along the outskirts of the Fimbul Ice Shelf.

    It is possible that the shelf is neither losing nor gaining mass at the moment, because ice buildup from snowfall has kept up with the rate of mass loss, said lead author of the study and PhD student at the Norwegian Polar Institute (NPI), Tore Hattermann.

    The Fimbul Ice Shelf – located along eastern Antarctica in the Weddell Sea – is the sixth largest of the forty-three ice shelves that dapple Antarctica’s perimeter. (Source...)

There's no doubt that it makes for a very alarming story if the alarmists can paint the goriest story possible. It's great propaganda...
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The first thing I notice about David’s latest post is it is a post from a denialist outfit (there are hundreds of them) not a recognized authority. There are pushing a book “Not by Fire but by Ice” claiming we are heading for a great ice age. Truth is by the Miklanovitch cycles we should be starting to head that way; but our fossil fuel habits have greatly overtaken that natural cycle with temperature lagging CO2 levels.

Image

The next thing to notice about David’s (really the denialist phony science industry) concentration on the minor increase in Antarctica sea ice extent (about 3% in recent months) is that he ignores the overall global trends is the loss of sea ice and glaciers - simply ignored.

Image

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The next thing to notice is that they picked on the fact that computer models were used in the some selected study of the sixth largest Antarctic glacier (Fumbil Ice Shelf). “Robert” some unattributed blogger had to go to some relatively small glacier to make that claim.

The next thing after some research is that there have been measurements of the Fimbul Ice Shelf. Read the data summaries here.


Weak David, very weak. But you fall for junk science everytime some minor piece of data goes your way announced by denialist bloggers.
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Re: Global Warming Update

Postby David Flick » Tue Sep 23, 2014 3:18 am

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    This is just hilarious as all get out. Apparently The Most Reverend Algore, Chief High Priest of the Worldwide Church of Global Warming, was beginning a hell-fire and damnation sermon, I suppose to condemn those evil climate Deniers to the bottomless pits of hell. So with mighty fervor, he began his sermon with a scripture reading from Luke 12:54-56:

        Luke 12:54-56
        54 And he said also to the people, When ye see a cloud rise out of the west, straightway ye say, There cometh a shower; and so it is.
        55 And when ye see the south wind blow, ye say, There will be heat; and it cometh to pass.
        56 Ye hypocrites, ye can discern the face of the sky and of the earth; but how is it that ye do not discern this time?

    As he pronounces the second word in v. 56, while slamming his fist down on the pulpit, his mic falls off. He is completely unaware of what has happened and continues the sermon into empty space while to flailing his arms in anger... I watched it about ten times and laughed myself crazy. Funniest thing I've seen in a long while. Here's the link:

    :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

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Re: Global Warming Update

Postby David Flick » Tue Sep 23, 2014 6:09 am

KeithE wrote:The first thing I notice about David’s latest post is it is a post from a denialist outfit (there are hundreds of them) not a recognized authority. There are pushing a book “Not by Fire but by Ice” claiming we are heading for a great ice age. Truth is by the Miklanovitch cycles we should be starting to head that way; but our fossil fuel habits have greatly overtaken that natural cycle with temperature lagging CO2 levels.

    Nonsense...
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The next thing to notice about David’s (really the denialist phony science industry) concentration on the minor increase in Antarctica sea ice extent (about 3% in recent months) is that he ignores the overall global trends is the loss of sea ice and glaciers - simply ignored.

    Keith, your ignorance concerning Antarctic and global sea ice is astonishing. Literally. Your head is buried underneath three feet of cold global warming sand. In the first place, that Skeptical Science graph (below) is nothing more than than a comparison between Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extents. It really doesn't explain much of anything about what is actually happening in the Antarctic region. The astonishing part of your claim is declaring the Antarctic sea ice to be "minor (about 3% in recent months"). That, of course is pure nonsense. Throughout this year (263 days) Antarctic sea ice extent has expanded markedly. Check this graph which is based on the NOAA Datasets. Carefully note that from about day 70 to day 263, there is only one spot (at approximately days 186-188) where the 2014 extent (red line) falls below record levels. All other days are records. Day 263 is 4 standard deviations above the mean. You take a look at this graph and try to convince me that the Antarctic sea ice extent expansion is minor. If you call that increase "minor," I'm going to say that you're willfully blind to the facts.
    ........Here's another salient fact for you to chew on. Since records have been kept, Antarctic sea ice extent has NEVER exceeded this level. Furthermore, the all-time record level for Antarctic sea ice extent expansion has been broken on 9 consecutive days. And you declare that I'm ignoring global sea ice and glacier trends. Nonsense. The expansion trend has been on the increase as far back as December of last year. You've been reading and listening to way too much AGW propaganda.

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The next thing to notice is that they picked on the fact that computer models were used in the some selected study of the sixth largest Antarctic glacier (Fumbil Ice Shelf). “Robert” some unattributed blogger had to go to some relatively small glacier to make that claim.

The next thing after some research is that there have been measurements of the Fimbul Ice Shelf. Read the data summaries here.


Weak David, very weak. But you fall for junk science everytime some minor piece of data goes your way announced by denialist bloggers.

    Call it very weak. Call it however you choose, but you're the one falling for the junk science.
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Re: Global Warming Update

Postby KeithE » Tue Sep 23, 2014 8:49 am

David Flick wrote:The astonishing part of your claim is declaring the Antarctic sea ice to be "minor (about 3% in recent months"). That, of course is pure nonsense. Throughout this year (263 days) Antarctic sea ice extent has expanded markedly. Check this graph which is based on the NOAA Datasets. Carefully note that from about day 70 to day 263, there is only one spot (at approximately days 186-188) where the 2014 extent ([/color]red line[color=#800000]) falls below record levels. All other days are records. Day 263 is 4 standard deviations above the mean.


That graph is what I used to come up with the 3% (I should have said recent days). Here it is for all to see.
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Everyone knows that the sea ice extent varies throughout the year. And every climatologist knows that the Antarctic Sea Ice has been slowly growing over recent decades. Seasoned Antarctic GW researchers know this is a sign of melt off of freshwater from the land glaciers.

The 3% was acknowledging a very recent jump in the red line from the black line (~19.5) in 2013 to 20.14215 in 2014 (or 3.3% I rounded to 3% consistent with uncertainty in reading the black line). You imagine that to mean GW is a farce (w/o looking at the Arctic sea ice loss or glacier losses in the Antarctic or worldwide and using only areal extent not volume). Real GW scientists see that as rapid runoff of glacier melts/and breakup. Denialists OTOH stand ready to jump on any blimp of data w/o understanding - anything that can catch the gullible RW and sidetrack the real data story wrt to global sea ice:
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Note in the above skeptical science animation, they acknowledge the Antarctic Sea Ice growth, but they also paint an more complete picture by plotting the Arctic Sea Ice losses (that overwhelm that growth at the South Pole) and global (Arctic + Antarctic) sea ice loss totals. You see they have scientific integrity - something tally lacking in the most of the denialist “news” stories.

Let alone ocean temps, long term atmosphere temps, ocean pH, glacial mass loss, wildfires, climate extremes, drought...

I congratulate you in doing the math approximately right wrt the the 4 sigma above the mean. Sigma (or standard deviation) is shown in gray in the plot 2 up with the red line.

But your interpretation that this is a sign that we can quit worrying about GW is bogus (to say the least).
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Re: Global Warming Update

Postby David Flick » Wed Sep 24, 2014 2:58 am

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Re: Global Warming Update

Postby David Flick » Wed Sep 24, 2014 10:31 pm

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        ~ Draw your own conclusion...
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