Romney gets a 1% to 2% bounce, what will Obama Get?

[Tim Bonney]

Polls I'm reading suggest that Romney only got a 1% or 2% bounce from the RNC. Do you think Obama will do better and why?

My own take already is that the Democratic Convention is more exciting. But hey, I'm a Democrat so I'm biased. Do you think Obama will get a better post-convention bounce than Romney or not? Why or Why not?

[Sandy]

Conventions are so cut and dried these days. The days of 10 point poll bounces are over. However, it does appear from the ratings that the Democrats are getting a larger audience than the Republicans did. That may be because their prime time speakers are more interesting. Mayor Castro and Michelle Obama were certainly attention getters, and Bill Clinton will draw a gigantic television audience tonight. That ought to be worth about three to four points in the polls.

The poll daily trackers are already showing Romney's bounce is waning. The Republican convention's most memorable moments have become Clint Eastwood and the chair, which didn't help them, and Paul Ryan and how many lies he managed to cram into a thirty minute speech. I think, after the convention, Obama goes back to the five to seven point lead, carries the battleground states he needs to top 270, and wins with somewhere between 310 and 315 electoral votes.

[Tim Bonney]

We are on about the same page Sandy. I think the President is going to pull this out, though it will be close. If that happens the Republicans are going to have to rethink some things. Being the party of angry white men is a dying cause.

[Tim Bonney]

Bill Clinton just gave a powerful speech! If we repealed the 22nd Amendment I'd vote for him all over again.

[KeithE]

[Sandy]

The ratings on Clinton's speech actually exceeded the NFL opener between the Giants and Cowboys.
http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/entert ... pener.html

Apparently, the only television markets where the game got better ratings than Bill Clinton were in New York and the Dallas area, neither of which will make a difference when it comes to electoral votes anyway.

I've heard Republican pundits say for months now that their best chance of winning in November is for the Democratic base to continue to exhibit lethargy and lack of excitement about voting. After last night, I don't think that will be a problem for the Democrats anymore.

[Tim Bonney]

I've been watching the convention on CSPAN so I don't have to listen to commentators. In recent years I've found them less then helpful in what parts of the convention they choose to broadcast. I like to hear the up and coming speakers too.

I have a better feeling after Clinton's speech myself. I do feel like it is going to be a close election no matter what. But the RNC didn't deliver in their convention the way the DNC has managed with such a good lineup of speakers who are willing to explain why their Democratic plan is preferable to the Republican plan if you are middle class or poor.

The fact checkers I have read today gave Bill a good score for accuracy. It wasn't perfect. But the greatest majority of his facts and figures were accurate. And I agree 100% that returning to (doubling down on) trickle down is no solution at all. It is just back to failed economic policy.

I loved Bill's little thing called "arithmetic." Romney/Ryan's plan doesn't add up. The numbers are the numbers and I've always been impressed with Bill's command of financial facts and figures.

[Tim Bonney]

I've never thought John Kerry was that much of a speaker. But he gave a pretty good speech just now.

[Big Daddy Weaver]

I really enjoyed watching the DNC on CSPAN. I wish I'd done the same with the RNC.

There's just SOOOO much you miss when you watch CNN, MSNBC or Fox (although I admit to not watching any of either convention of Fox).

Bill was fabulous. He has this incredible ability to explain quasi-complex issues in a way that anyone can understand. And his style is so persuasive.

You know if he could, he'd run again!

I liked Al Gore. In smaller settings, he's really a strong speaker. But during that 2000 election, he was just entirely awkward.

Romney is the same way but really worse, IMO. Folks that know him say he's privately different. But did anyone see Romney enter, coming through the crowd, shaking hands, etc? He was so stiff and awkward and actually looked rather "old" in the way he was moving. He's clearly in great shape - so I'm not sure why he comes off so awkward (which his awkwardness really plays into the larger "out-of-touch" narrative)

Obama just strolls onto the stage and throws a handshake like he's hanging with a buddy. His cool style really makes him likable and that doesn't help Romney because the contrast is so stark.

Did anyone see where Chris Christie at an RNC event called the Governor of California old?

Chris Christie ought to be careful before picking on someone!

[Tim Bonney]

I can't speak to the RNC since I didn't watch it. But I've long thought Romney looks uncomfortable with people. That has nothing to do with his qualifications one way or another. I've felt the same thing about Gore when he ran for President. But when I heard Gore later speak on in a presentation he did about Global Climate Change he was in his element and did a great job.

Clinton's speech was the best of the convention. I very much like Obama's as well. But few people have the oratory ability that Bill displays with ease. However, I believe Clinton's speech, even if it out shown Obama's, did Obama a lot of good. As you said BDW, Clinton explains things well and did a good job of showing just what is wrong with the idea of giving the country back to the very party that screwed things up in the first place.

[Gene Scarborough]

The end of conventions is complete and public debates are next. I am glad Charlotte was the site for Democrats and hope we will see a shift in our swing towards Democrats. It is amazing how things have shifted Republican in the South. I am convinced that the majority of that swing has to do with wealth and racial hatred brewing beneath the surface.

I think the clarity brought to the differences between Republicans and Democrats so clearly expressed by Bill Clinton will be a major part of the decisions voters must make by November. The logic of turning government back to the failures of Republican policies going back the Reagan escapes me. With every new disclosure of how banks and corporations are deceiving investors makes me want to throw up. When a bank like Leamon Brothers can go under with Regulators in the building shows clearly how little regulation is really taking place to protect the public.

Our economic fall did not take place overnight and any corrections will hardly take place in the 2 years of Obama changes and the last 2 years of deadlock. Anyone not taking seriously the goal of Republicans to demean and not cooperate to hurt his chances of re-election, is destined to return to the Bush record of failure in economics.

What astounded me most was the total absence of Bush and his cohorts among Republicans. Why such a strong effort to keep them out of sight?

[Tim Bonney]

Gene! I've not seen you on here in a while. Welcome back!

[Stephen Fox]

Couple things why South so Republican.

I agree with UNC Chancellor Bill Friday prophecy of 88. Jesse Helms and the Takeover of the SBC had a lot to do with it. Update see Dan Williams God's Own Party, ironically, Dan teaches at Newt's Old Haunt, West Georgia, Carrollton, Jerry Vines Hometown.

2. Too many small town newspaper editors aren't reading Jeff Faux's The Servant Economy and the so called "good people" in these towns aren't challenging the local influentials to a higher standard.

3. Crawford Broadcasting Radio here in Bama, as an example. Constant barrage of rewired Birchism passing for legitimacy. See EJ Dionne's first chapter in his latest book about the History of the Tea Party; or the easily googled Mitt and Moocherism post at religion dispatches that references Cleon Skoussen.