Midterm elections

[William Thornton]

It's looking like GOP gets a majority in the Senate which doesn't mean much other than Obama can't get extreme libs confirmed in the SCOTUS, presuming one of the blackrobes retires or dies during the next two years. Divided gummit isn't all that bad. It will be good not to see Harry Reid every day.

Locally here in GA:

1. The senate seat of retiring Saxby Chambliss is contested. Michelle Nunn, son of Sam, is close and could win. The GOP candidate is adequate but not exactly scintillating. I think the GOP holds this seat. Might be a runoff which, if the seat is the swing seat for senate control, will be a circus. I'm sticking GOP on this one.

2. The GOP governor, Deal, is a safe conservative but no way he gets my vote. The state gummit is an ethical mess. I'm voting democratic, for Jason Carter grandson of President Malaise, Jimmy Carter. Let the chips fall where they may. Republican gummit in this state stinks, exceeded only by Dems if they had control. I don't think Carter has much of a chance.

[Neil Heath]

There are about 5 states where the Senate races are too close to call, and here in Ga. Libertarian candidates may force a runoff in a couple of elections. This article in the Atlantic suggests an important factor is the declining white evangelical percentages in the population.

[Tim Bonney]

[Sandy]

Actually, the polls have been moving toward the Democrats for about two months now, which is why the GOP is making politics out of everything they possibly can. Essentially, two months ago, the polling experts (sans the Republican favoring ones which never get it right anyway, i.e. Romney wins by 13 points in 2012 sort of thing) said that the senate race would come down to whether Pryor could hold his seat in Arkansas. His tea party opponent is basically handing him the election on a silver platter, but since then, North Carolina has opened up a lead for Hagan, Nunn has made Georgia too close to call, actually leads in some polls, and has the Republicans scrambling to try to nullify 40,000 new Democratic registrations, West Virginia has gone from a 14 point Republican lead to too close to call, and the targeted seats in New Hampshire, Colorado and Louisiana look to be sure bets for the Democrats. I think the most powerful images of this mid-term is the do-nothing Congress, Republicans who have collectively generated a job approval rating of 9% for the branch of government that they hold.

This is turning out not to be an issue race, it is a turnout race. The Republicans are spending millions on television ads, while the Dems are investing their money in the ground game that won the 2012 election. And while the congressmen who are doing the bad job is usually the "other guy" while yours is fine, it is going to come down to which party motivates its registered voters to get out. Even Faux is admitting that nothing much is going to change this round. If the President has to executive order his last two years, I'm fine with that. It's constitutional, and he's done a whole lot more than congress. Even without control of congress, the Obama presidency has been a thousand times better than Bush. Proof is in the facts, folks.

http://jeff61b.hubpages.com/hub/14-Fact ... -Dont-Know

[Dave Roberts]

How much poorer a job could the GOP have done in VA than picking Ed Gillespie, George Bush's "bag man" and Enron's number one lobbyist to run for Senate. He has never held an elective office in his life, and his only reason for living in VA was that he found a place across the river from his lobbying firm in DC.

[Sandy]

Since Warner is leading by 11, and the GOP pulled their corporate money from underneath Gillespie, I think Warner's probably got that one. Virginia and North Carolina were two of the "targets" the GOP "had to have" to get the number they needed to control the Senate. But it is looking like they're losing both. Gillespie sort of made a faux paus by running Anti-Obama ads in the Washington, DC television market. Oops.

Worth noting:

The US has now had 63 consecutive months of economic expansion, and the longest period of private sector job creation in American history.

Unemployment has fallen in five years from 10.1% to 5.9% and at the current rate of job creation, will fall to about 4.9% by summer.

The stock market has set growth records in the past five years, unsurpassed in any other period of time since it has been in existence.

The federal budget deficit is down by 2/3 since 2009.

95% of all American taxpayers have lower taxes and lower tax rates over the past five years.

Dependence on foreign oil is lower than it has been at any time since the mid 1980's, and domestic drilling is up to the point where American production is now affecting the world price of crude, accounting for the recent drop in gas prices, a trend that will continue through at least 2016.

7 million more Americans now have health insurance than before.

Health insurance premiums have increased, of course, but at a lower rate than at any time since 1960.

We have fewer soldiers in war zones than at any time in the past decade, a fact that Americans approve of at a rate of about 65%.

There have been zero terrorist attacks on US soil in five years.

Osama Bin Laden, the number one most wanted man, is dead.

The US catches and deports more illegals crossing the border in one year than we did during the entire period from 2000-2008.

The banks and financial institutions now have protections in place that provide major protection against collapse.

Senior adults have saved $1.3 billion on prescription drugs since 2008.

In the past five years, twice as many jobs were created as in the entire eight years of the Bush administration.

80% of the premiums you pay for health care must be spent on your health care, as opposed to less than 60% prior to Obamacare.

You can verify those statements any way you want to, they were already run through fact checker before I posted them. They're not mine originally. And yet, with all of that on the table, we're watching the news media try to blame Obama for ebola, and for ISIL, even as the government develops plans for dealing with both in a rational and effective manner. The corporations that are trying to buy the election don't want it to be issue focused, because they know that if it goes there, and if there is no sustained voter suppression, they lose. I'm pretty well convinced, by what I am seeing, that if the GOP comes out ahead in the midterms, it will be the result of widespread voter suppression and fraud. Look for Republican secretaries of states in places like Florida, Georgia, Ohio and North Carolina to try to toss out batches of provisional ballots. In Georgia, there's already a question of "losing" registrations in large numbers turned in by Democrats. In Ohio, there was an attempt to stall voting machine installation at early voting locations, or limit the number in the hopes that long lines will discourage Democrats and they'll go home. The draconian, tea party restrictions to suppress the Democrat vote in PA were overturned by the court.

[William Thornton]

The only stat relevant to this topic is who wins the elections. We will see shortly.

[Tim Bonney]

[Haruo]

But boy will they feel silly when the books are opened at the judgment!

[Tim Bonney]

[Sandy]

Not so much about the "election," but about where the money trail has gone. The corporate interests have bought the election, it remains to be seen as to whether their purchases translate into enough votes to win or not. A GOP "win" is a signal that we've moved from a democratic republic to a corporate controlled dictatorship. I'm not convinced that isn't the case, even if the Democrats keep the Senate.

[Neil Heath]

I prefer to focus on the long-term. Diana Butler Bass was the featured speaker at this year's Mercer Preaching Consultation. She was quite interesting in many ways, but one stat she gave us caught my ear.

In talking about the declining influence of the white evangelical vote, she mentioned that the average voting age of an Obama supporter was 27, and the average age of a Romney supporter was 72.

[Haruo]

The same demographic cleavage runs through the voters for and against an independent Scotland.

[Ed Pettibone]

[Tim Bonney]

[Tim Bonney]

[Sandy]

The Gallup organization also has a poll which shows that over 70% of the American people disapprove of the job Congress as a whole is doing, and when you put the poll focus on the GOP controlled House, it is 91% disapproval. Of course, that's disapproval of your congressman. You should vote yours out but mine's just fine. Ultimately, even with gerrymandered congressional districts mainly favoring Republicans, that's going to factor into the election.

I did hear poll guru Nate Silver, who made himself known by estimating the number of Democrats that weren't showing up in the 2012 polling and adding those figures into the composite, and hit the results almost dead on, while the major networks underestimated Obama's support by 4%, and Fox missed by 12%. He also alluded to some of what Neil is saying, about the growing under 30 vote, which is almost 80% Democrat, while the older, white vote is declining. Even if the size of the "underpolled" Democrat vote is only half of what it was in 2012, that will make for a happy night for a number of Democrats.

Seems like the Republicans think the only way they can win is to suppress the vote.
http://www.henryherald.com/news/2014/oc ... ng-voters/

[Stephen Fox]

Krugman said Obama is a transformative President whose legacy will be bigger than both Reagan and Clinton

Fact Two: I am the only frequent participant of this board who has read both the Maraniss and Remnick biographies of Obama.

Fact Three; the 2006 book God and Country said while the emergent church, McClaren and company--Willow Creek and Rick Warren--are oblivious to Pressler's definition of Inerrancy, the Birchers at the Top still hold the reins on the voting direction they lead the mega churches and what passes for conservatism of the Focus on the Family type.

Thus Pressler keeps on winning.

Number four: Case in point The Church of Brook Hills, Bham Alabama and its alliance with Crawford Broadcasting 101.1 FM in Bham. Brook Hills pastor just went to head the SBC IMB. See my post on NYbooks.com and Texas Fundies influence on the Tea Party with its roots in the SBC Takeover.

http://www.christianitytoday.com/gleani ... paging=off

[Haruo]

[William Thornton]

[KeithE]

[Sandy]

[Neil Heath]

[Tim Bonney]

Here, here is an interest meme about the party platform of the Republican party in 1956. In that year I could have voted Republican.

[Mrs Haruo]

Indeed, Tom. Todays GOP is light years from the one my parents used to caucus for.